Why Zelensky demanded not to delay the attack on Kherson


For the past few weeks, there has been only talk about the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Southern Front. By order of President Zelensky, the Ukrainian army must recapture the Kherson region from the “Russian orcs” in the next three to six weeks. Is this possible in principle, why is such a deadline set and what will happen after?


Decisive battle for the South of Ukraine?


In the domestic press and the blogosphere, it is customary to ridicule the very possibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to recapture something from the Russian army by force. They enthusiastically count the number of artillery barrels and shells for them, talk about the lack of morale of the Ukrainian army, etc. They also quite rightly point out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to attack on the bare steppe, where the Russian Aerospace Forces will be able to inflict a heavy defeat on them, and even with mines fields that are carefully prepared for them. In some way, this all resembles fascinating stories about the incompetence of our "non-brothers" that we were treated to for the previous 8 years. Hasn't bitter experience taught anyone anything yet?

The reality may turn out to be somewhat different than it seems now. No, it is unlikely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to recapture Kherson, but they can still unpleasantly surprise.

Yes, the Ukrainian army will have to advance across the open steppe, but the factor of the operational dominance of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the air can be leveled by the Norwegian-made NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems that cover the White House and the Pentagon itself. The US Congress approved the supply of these air defense systems instead of the Patriot air defense systems requested by Kyiv. Norwegian mobile complexes have a range of 180 kilometers and in capable hands pose a serious threat to Russian attack aircraft, fighters and bombers, and can also shoot down cruise missiles.

The flip side of the battle in the bare steppe is that the Russian army there is not much to cling to. We have to dig trenches and dugouts, burrowing deeper into the ground. The notorious American HIMARS, and with them Tochki-U, are capable of pinpoint hitting targets in our positions, the Ukrainian Tornadoes and Hurricanes can also create a lot of problems. And it’s not a fact that the whole sky will be only for the Russian Aerospace Forces. Not without reason in the United States they started talking about the possibility of transferring the A-10 Warthog attack aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These outwardly ugly aircraft proved to be extremely durable and effective means of destroying armored vehicles and other ground targets during the operation in the Gulf. Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Yuriy Sak even tried to bargain with the Americans for F-16 fighters instead of attack aircraft:

The A-10s are good at hitting ground targets - perhaps better than most. But other planes will give Ukraine much more. At the same time, the A-10 will take the financial and human resources necessary to re-equip it with modern fighters.

But the logic of what is happening on the fronts dictates the need for attack aircraft for the battle in the steppe for the Right Bank. It is unlikely that it will be possible to retrain Ukrainian pilots in a month and a half, but some American retired mercenary or “vacationist” may well be sitting behind the control stick of the Warthog. The threat from the Turkish "Bayraktars" has not gone away either.

Minefields are, of course, good, but it should be borne in mind that Western curators can provide Kyiv with a variety of specialized armored vehicles designed to overcome any obstacles. For example, the Bundeswehr has Bergepanzer BPz 2 and more modern Bergepanzer BPz3 Büffel armored recovery vehicles, Panzerschnellbrücke Biber and Panzerschnellbrücke Leguan bridge-laying vehicles, Pionerpanzer 2 Dachs engineering obstacle clearing vehicles and one of the world's best demining machines Minenräumpanzer Keiler. The Pentagon uses the M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle (M1ABV), based on the M1 Abrams tank, to clear minefields, which also casually clears rubble in the streets, wire fences and fills up anti-tank ditches.

At the same time, it should be remembered that a large group of Ukrainian military personnel are currently being trained in the UK according to modern NATO training manuals. In general, given that the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces are now concentrated in the Donbass, everything is not quite as rosy as it seems. Particularly ominous is the voiced information that the counteroffensive for the Kherson region may be personally led by President Zelensky. If this is true, then he should count on at least some intermediate result acceptable to himself. A complete fiasco for this "bloody clown" and his Western partners is unacceptable.

So what should this result be?

A red thread in all discussions regarding the possible goals and objectives of the Ukrainian attack on Kherson is the idea that it is fundamentally important for Kyiv to disrupt the referendum scheduled for September on joining the Azov region to the Russian Federation. Undoubtedly, this is so. It is important for President Zelensky to disrupt the plebiscite, to prove to his voters and Western curators the determination to fight for Ukrainian land to the end. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine succeed in capturing some settlements in the Kherson region, this will be declared a Great Peremoga, which will allow Kyiv to have a stronger position in negotiations with Moscow on a possible truce. In six weeks, it will be mid-September, when something will need to be done promptly with the filling of European UGSFs.

Winter is coming, and this factor is undoubtedly the determining factor in Zelensky's unexpected peacefulness.
  • Author:
  • Photos used: press service of the Office of the President of Ukraine
32 comments
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  1. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 27 July 2022 16: 57
    +5
    How gloomy. The author is sure that Russia has already lost and there is nothing to hit her with. Hide too, you have to run. The author is not from Kyiv?
    1. shinobi Offline shinobi
      shinobi (Yuri) 27 July 2022 17: 41
      +10
      This is Marzhetsky, he has everything in a similar spirit. He loves to catch up with horror.
      1. Marshal Zhukov Offline Marshal Zhukov
        Marshal Zhukov (Marshal Zhukov) 28 July 2022 08: 24
        -3
        Don't shoot the pianist. Everyone earns his bread as best he can. Read and even comment.
    2. reader Offline reader
      reader (BTB) 28 July 2022 13: 11
      +3
      Perhaps the author proceeds from the fact that despite the courage and heroism of our Warriors, there are several problematic nuances 1) a fairly strong enemy, on whose side the whole wild west is and who, like a suicide bomber, is ready to kill himself just to cause at least some damage to the enemy 2) as shown by the NWO, not always adequate, sometimes reckless and delayed actions of the military leadership 3) and there are also all sorts of Peskov-Medinsky and other lovers to negotiate the surrender of Russia's interests ...
    3. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 28 July 2022 16: 08
      0
      Or maybe we should beat the Balts Anatoly Chubais with our brows, and call him to the Russian throne, because he is in favor with the whole West, and we don’t need to run, and the Yankees will meet us with open arms, like in "Dashing 90s"?
    4. skeptic Offline skeptic
      skeptic 29 July 2022 11: 34
      +1
      Quote: kriten
      How gloomy.

      And won't it seem gloomy to you if "Khersoniad" is nothing more than a screen? In the border area, there are no forces more than to counter the DRG and in some places, insignificant air defense. The most tempting direction is the capture of large settlements on the territory of Russia. A bunch of "NORD-OSTs" will create the largest image defeat for the Russian Armed Forces and the authorities themselves. This is a huge scope for subsequent territorial losses, demands for exorbitant indemnities and other diktat, up to the renunciation of nuclear status, etc. And thousands of Russian civilians will die if the Russian Armed Forces do not take care to prevent such scenarios. Now-this is the most likely direction, the real counter-offensive of the Ukrainian-Western Nazis.
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 27 July 2022 17: 13
    +2
    It is important for President Zelensky to disrupt the plebiscite, to prove to his voters and Western curators the determination to fight for Ukrainian land to the end. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine succeed in capturing some settlements in the Kherson region, this will be declared a Great Peremoga, which will allow Kyiv to have a stronger position in negotiations with Moscow on a possible truce. In six weeks, it will be mid-September, when something will have to be done promptly with the filling of European UGSFs.

    Consider this set of letters and words, where everything is mixed up as in the head of any alarmist.
    A) To disrupt the holding of a plebiscite - well, it doesn’t work.
    B) To prove to someone there - let them prove it, what is it to us?
    C) Capture settlements and declare the great Peremoga - well, maybe only a strong position in negotiations with Moscow because of these points - wild nonsense. Like the peace talks themselves.
    D) Filling European UGS facilities - how is this connected with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
  3. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 27 July 2022 17: 33
    +1
    I believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this region will not have any success in the next 6 weeks.

    To which they will answer me - well, the Armed Forces of Ukraine went deep 10 km into the depths of the region, because they captured three settlements for two days. And they will tell how Kyiv described all this on the information front - a complete victory.
    And they will say that now Kyiv's negotiating position will be impenetrable. Although there are no negotiations and are not expected. And they will finish me off with a terrible argument - filling up European UGSFs. It doesn't matter if they are filled or not. The main thing is that this is the most important indicator of Kyiv's victory.
  4. Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 27 July 2022 17: 35
    +3
    Attack aircraft are useless whether they are A-10 or Su25 if there is no air supremacy. And it is still for the Russian Federation
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 27 July 2022 17: 40
      +4
      Yes, there will be no attack aircraft from NATO for the next 6 weeks. It's just fantasies, sucking it out of your finger, pulling an owl on a globe.
  5. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 27 July 2022 18: 13
    +7
    What other "negotiations" are there, the author seems to have suffered.
  6. Panzerjäger Offline Panzerjäger
    Panzerjäger 27 July 2022 20: 31
    +1
    So. Attack aircraft A-10. Their appearance in the air is unlikely from the word at all, simply because there is no one to fly. "Vacationers" of the US Air Force? Radio interception will instantly show the English conversation. Well, our air defense systems will be able to drop Warthogs from heaven to earth. Capturing a mercenary pilot with subsequent trial in the DPR with a verdict known in advance? It is unlikely that among the flight personnel of the same United States there are such. Simply because the armor of the Warthog does not save from the striking elements of the warhead of the missile defense system of our Buk. As well as from the shells of the 30-mm guns "Tungusok" and "Shell".
    Norwegian air defense systems? Training in handling them takes up to six months. And just like that, by magic, the personnel of the Wehrmacht's coming out will not learn how to handle these air defense systems. In addition, if it is necessary to ensure the actions of the Air Force, then near Kherson, most likely, they will finally use electronic warfare systems to test their effectiveness against NATO air defense systems.
    Therefore, the author slightly exaggerates the problems very much. IMHO, just the interaction of artillery and air weapons will be the main component that will defeat the attacking units of the Wehrmacht's coming out.
    1. Dart2027 Offline Dart2027
      Dart2027 27 July 2022 21: 27
      +1
      Quote: Panzerjager
      So. Attack aircraft A-10. Their appearance in the air is unlikely from the word at all, simply because there is no one to fly.

      And no one to serve. Each flight of any aircraft is many hours of maintenance, which must be carried out by trained people, but something is not heard about Ukrainian technicians being sent somewhere to study.
  7. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 27 July 2022 20: 56
    +1
    ..Well, that’s all. I didn’t even finish reading it. I understood Marzhetsky. Everything was gone. request
  8. Nord11 Offline Nord11
    Nord11 (Sergei) 27 July 2022 21: 27
    +3
    The Warthog is, of course, an excellent attack aircraft, but only in conditions of complete air supremacy. With normal enemy air defense, he will quickly fall victim to him.
    1. Alexander Ponamarev (Alexander Ponamarev) 28 July 2022 11: 09
      0
      Think right
  9. zloybond Offline zloybond
    zloybond (steppenwolf) 27 July 2022 22: 19
    +4
    For the note - squeals about the direction of Kherson - this is just a distraction from another direction. Just look around and think - why support the general barking, if it suddenly turns out that there is another direction of impact.
  10. Spasatel Offline Spasatel
    Spasatel 27 July 2022 23: 25
    0
    Recently, something has not become interesting articles and materials, both here and on VO. Where, where did you go? Or are the moderators vigilant?
    There is simply nothing to discuss.

    Winter is coming, and this factor is undoubtedly the determining factor in Zelensky's unexpected peacefulness.

    Well, winter is coming.
    And then summer again. After spring, of course. And again next winter.
    Cool!
    Discuss?
  11. Roust Offline Roust
    Roust (Rouslan) 28 July 2022 07: 43
    -2
    Solid whining, like "if", "what if". And almost all the articles of this dull author are in this style. Next time I will first read who the author is, and then the article.
  12. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 28 July 2022 07: 49
    0
    The result of the offensive, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine nevertheless decides, will be a turning point in the psychology of the ukrov army and the ukrov themselves.
  13. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 28 July 2022 08: 37
    +3
    Quote: Colonel Kudasov
    Attack aircraft are useless whether they are A-10 or Su25 if there is no air supremacy. And it is still for the Russian Federation

    We don't have any superiority. crests have a lot of air defense, except for rooks and helicopters, nothing flies in our country, and then they hit somewhere in the direction of crests, into milk, trying not to enter the air defense zone.
    Show me at least one video where, for example, a Su-24 or 34 pours land mines on the heads of Ukrainians, how slippers were bombed in Syria (where there was real domination). Apparently you have seen enough of Konashenkov and Podlyak, where they have already shot down 2 times more aircraft than the crests had and continue to shoot down to this day.
  14. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 28 July 2022 08: 43
    +5
    Quote: Roust
    Solid whining, like "if", "what if". And almost all the articles of this morally dull author are in this style. Next time I will first read who the author is, and then the article.

    Of course, it’s more pleasant to read how we alone these crests and in three weeks we will free the Donbass, as one author wrote yesterday.
    The reality is a bit different to say the least.
    For 4 months of the war, nothing was achieved, except for gestures of goodwill, the sunken cruiser Moscow, + the shelling of the LDNR did not go anywhere, and attacks on Russian cities were added to them. And 95% of the territories occupied and controlled by us were wrested from crests in the first month. Now, for a farm of 30 houses, battles go on for weeks, and small towns like Lisichansk are beaten off for months in bloody battles. How long did the battles for the Ugolgorsk thermal power plant last, remind you?
    Svetlodarsk was recaptured from crests on May 25, and the nearby thermal power plant and Novolugansk on July 25
  15. zuuukoo Offline zuuukoo
    zuuukoo (Sergei) 28 July 2022 10: 45
    +1
    A10, F16 and air defense in the short term, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not seem to be expected, but earlier only the arrest officer was talking about "future victories".
    Zelensky personally is actively investing his political capital in Kherson. Which makes you think - he has something to lose.
    Time will tell.
    However, at the beginning of the summer there was already a similar story near Kharkov - with the rejection of "thin barriers" and "exit to the rear of the Donbass group."
    Then it all ended in nothing.
    1. art573 Offline art573
      art573 (Artyom Vladimirovich Yarovikov) 28 July 2022 16: 27
      0
      Does Zelensky rule in Kherson? Will he pay in rubles in schools and hospitals? Will Rostelecom put up its own SIM cards and sell it from Zelensky too? Will Zelya also invest in buses to Crimea and back?
  16. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 28 July 2022 12: 04
    +3
    In fact, the author is right in the main thing: the situation is by no means as simple and wonderful as it seems to the turbo-patriots. If, in addition to armored vehicles arriving in large quantities, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly saturated with high-precision artillery and missile systems in conjunction with new air defense systems, then the situation will certainly worsen ...
  17. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 28 July 2022 13: 21
    +2
    The one who constantly attacks wins, now the initiative is on the side of Kyiv. Allied troops are marking time, count 4 months. Kyiv will attack, this is an order from NATO. Where to attack??? Kherson may not become the main direction, not fools are sitting in NATO and they do not care about the loss of citizens of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
  18. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 28 July 2022 16: 04
    -2
    You, Sergei, were bought out by people with a "trident", because in all your latest articles there are simply defeatist notes, and even so loud. Don't you understand that we will not tolerate our defeat in any area, and even those three Baltic, swaggering farms, which are already worse than any pug-jackals, we simply have nowhere to retreat, like those dead North American Indians who died for their country and land from the Yankee barbarians ... A few pinpoint, tactical nuclear strikes that will make you shudder the entire militant population of the USA and Europe, and who will evenly sit on their priests, and will figure out the hell to their nose, and what a bump will be ... well, and if the USA wants to continue, which is unlikely, then our future descendants will already fight with clubs and stone axes.
    1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
      Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 28 July 2022 22: 58
      +1
      Suppose the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieve success in Kherson. But in Ukraine there are the same Soviet people as we are. In the same way they built ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, the largest aircraft in the world. Why do we think they can't do anything? The West will give them a trained reserve, equipment. They will collect their reserves from among the cured wounded, while the small Russian troops smash the poorly trained reservists, and strike. And then what? Negotiations with the decision-making centers of Ukraine, which should have been wiped off the face of Kyiv long ago? Or is it still a nuclear strike, what would Western neighbors, including Germany, put in their pants and force Ukraine to surrender?
      1. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
        Vox Populi (vox populi) 29 July 2022 11: 58
        0
        Or is it still a nuclear strike, what would Western neighbors, including Germany, put in their pants and force Ukraine to surrender?

        Don't you think this could be a Pyrrhic victory?!
      2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 29 July 2022 12: 09
        -2
        while the small Russian troops are crushing the poorly trained reservists.

        They crush everyone. Both trained and untrained. It’s just that there are very few of those trained in Kyiv who are still alive.

        The West will give them a trained reserve, equipment.

        They don't have much time to study. Technology is also scarce. They can attack. But to win even in a separate operation - no. They will again in virtual reality win victory after victory.
        They need the death of their fighters only as an informational occasion to announce another victory.
  19. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 29 July 2022 01: 05
    0
    Kherson is probably the most tank-dangerous direction at the moment. Maybe it makes sense to collect most of the captured Javelins, Enloves and Panzerfaustofs, provide them with a battery level and send them to the Nikolaev direction.
    At the same time, not to equip full-time anti-tank systems, let them work with the systems they were trained, but to equip and train ordinary shooters in the use of Western anti-tank systems. Thus, the Kherson direction will be saturated with anti-tank systems, and perhaps the javelins will still have their last word, burning the Polish "solid".
  20. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 29 July 2022 23: 56
    -2
    Who can bet that Ukraine will lose in a dry one. And it will cease to exist ....