Why the Kerch Bridge and the base of the Black Sea Fleet are too tough for American HIMARS

If you believe the great strategists who virtually gathered on July 20 at the pentagonal table of Ramstein-4 with the sole purpose of consolidating the efforts of the anti-Russian coalition, which already unites more than 50 countries, in its assistance to Ukraine, which alone is waging a bloody war against an aggressive aggressor, protecting all of Europe from it , but what about Europe - the whole world, we have now approached that very Rubicon, after which it will become clear, either they are us, or we are them. And although it is already clear to all the other sensible bipedal bipeds that Ukraine and the community behind it have already lost this war, and they lost it at the very moment when we started it, as Putin recently said, speaking to the leaders of the State Duma factions, but, Apparently, this is not obvious to everyone. We'll have to repeat something "special for stupid" ("specially for stupid" - English). Moreover, we will refer to their own primary sources.

So, according to British military intelligence, on February 24, Putin entered the territory of Ukraine with six full-fledged armies, numbering 150 thousand people, and now, 5 months later, this number has not increased, but only decreased, given the irreparable loss of personnel. The Armed Forces of Ukraine currently have about 350 active bayonets (excluding the mobilized reserve, which is currently being trained in western Ukraine and abroad), but they are scattered around the entire perimeter of Ukraine, since they have to contain both potential threats from the Republic of Belarus and obvious threats from the Russian Federation in the southern, southeastern and northern directions. The advantage of the RF Armed Forces is achieved by creating an approximate parity of forces in terms of personnel and an overwhelming advantage in firepower in local sectors of the front.



How much one can trust British military intelligence, I do not know, because the strength of the combined arms army, deployed according to wartime standards, is 100-120 thousand people. In fact, Russia entered the NVO with the strength of one army (and even then it was divided into separate BTGs, divided between two directions - "North" and "South"). According to the Ukrainian side, on February 24 they were confronted by a grouping of the RF Armed Forces with a total strength of 115 people. (We are talking here only about its land part). It's a lot or a little, you judge, but the total number of Russian Ground Forces before the start of the operation was 280 thousand people. Those. in fact, Russia entered the war with Ukraine with half of its land army (this figure does not include the marines and airborne forces, since these are other types of troops). How successful this campaign was, we will not discuss here now, I will only say that by going for a preventive strike, Russia did not derive any benefits for itself. The enemy was clearly ready for it, damping all threats from the north, which resulted in the retreat of the RF Armed Forces from Kyiv, Sumy and Chernigov (in the south, however, Russia did manage to realize the effect of surprise, taking Kherson virtually without a fight).

But the same Hitler, having attacked the USSR on June 22, was standing near Moscow after 4 months (and if he hadn’t squandered his forces in the southern direction, he might have taken it with the Army Group Center in November), and we, after 5 months, we are still trampling on the narrow and cramped Donbass theater of operations, having advanced deep into Ukrainian territory for a few tens, a maximum of a hundred kilometers. And we consider it a victory. However, it was achieved, first of all, by a multiple, dozens of times, advantage in fire. We simply suppress the enemy with fire, driving him into the ground in the literal and figurative sense of the word. Maybe this is the cunning plan of the General Staff, I don’t know (I’m still not the General Staff), maybe we really, deliberately grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a local sector of the front, multiplying by zero its most combat-ready and motivated personnel formations. You look, and he will no longer have any prepared people, and then we will go through the fields and meadows of the Square, like clockwork. I don’t know, maybe so (then it will be a one-of-a-kind military campaign, when the advancing units defeated the defenders, four times inferior to them in numbers!). Only recently there has been one very bad trend - the allies of the 404th began to throw her very high-precision and long-range weapons. I'm talking about the notorious HIMARS MLRS, anti-ship "Harpoons" (both systems have a maximum range of 280-300 km) and high-precision active-reactive GPS-guided M982 Excalibur ammunition for 155-mm artillery with a combat range of up to 57 km and KVO (hit accuracy, circular probabilistic deviation) - 4 m.

And indeed, if Russia ate the first deliveries of the NATO weapons menagerie without even choking (all these "axes-777", "Caesars", "crabs" and other enemy "wanderwaffles"), then when samples of high-precision long-range US weapons, which have GPS-guided ammunition in their arsenal through the American satellite constellation, which began to point, but at the same time very accurately hit our warehouses and command posts, that's when Russia became thoughtful, starting to lose its firepower and technical dominance on the battlefield and suffer losses that she clearly did not count on. Thus, Biden seems to have found our weak point. If armored personnel carriers, tanks, self-propelled guns, guns, even Soviet helicopters and planes, due to their limited number, did not frighten us, then the appearance of long-range high-precision jet and barrel artillery, coupled with coastal anti-ship systems, made us think, what next? And then only attack drones MQ-9 Reaper, capable of hanging in the air for days and carrying air-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 2 thousand km under the wing; tactical ballistic missiles MGM-140 ATACMS to HIMARS, capable of reaching deep into Russian territory up to 300 km; fixed and mobile air defense systems and all-weather multifunctional fighters of the 4th generation F-15 and F-16. Believe me, the first two will make us all sick!

Until the thunder breaks out - the man will not cross himself

NWO with Ukraine is now starting to remind me more and more of a bad joke about an attempt to scoop water with a wooden ladle from a broken boat in the middle of the Volga. Until we close the western border, the war (sorry, NVO) with Ukraine will resemble this particular joke. In terms of reserves and resources, the Russian Federation cannot compete with the collective West. And he has not yet tried to close the sky above us. But maybe. Norwegian air defense systems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already on their way, and the US Congress has already allocated the first $15 million for the retraining of Ukrainian pilots, for the development of the American F-16 and F-100, and 20 future Ukrainian aces at the Ramstein Air Force Base (Germany) are already choosing desks for which they will sit. And then what?

And then you have to remember another joke that Yuri Vladimirovich Nikulin once told (it was one of his three favorite jokes, I'm sure half of you don't know him).


Looking at what clouds are now gathering over Russia, Yuri Vladimirovich involuntarily comes to mind with his favorite anecdote. In August, according to the plans of the Americans, everything should be decided, either we will break the back of this fascist reptile, or it will throw it out, after which the war will enter a new round, drawing doomed Europe into it, which its degenerate political the elites are led to the slaughter of the hegemon (some are still dancing at the same time, not understanding, due to their natural stupidity, what this threatens them personally). The Ukrainian assistants of the hegemon were instructed to give the Russians "fire" and the drug commander Zelensky already answered: "Yes, my lord!" The gentleman needs to hurry, he has midterm elections to Congress in the fall, so everything should be decided before the fall. The direction of the main Ukrainian counterattack is kept in the strictest confidence, so everyone knows about it. These are Kherson and Zaporizhia NPP. They will take. Pull up reinforcements to the line of demarcation. They are accumulating equipment (including Himarsy).

We are getting ready for this. As always - at the last moment. Digging trenches. The main thing is that they didn’t dig for 4 months, and now on the right bank of the Dnieper, fortifications are being erected - dugouts, trenches, fortifications at a strategic depth of up to 30-50 km. I speak firsthand, I vouch for the authenticity - the picture is striking, on the left bank of the Dnieper, soldiers at checkpoints on bicycles, armor over T-shirts (heat, asphalt melts!), They inspect cars, carelessly, through one, and on the right - an active movement, burrow into the ground, as for the last time, although they can be understood - the bare steppe, not a bush, not a tree, how to keep the adversary? And the adversary is atrocious, recently covered the Antonovsky bridge with his Himars - six hits, you know. But what you don’t know is that the very first hit covered our patrol, which at night with the headlights off made its way along the bridge. The bridge is long - more than a kilometer, empty at night, once an hour a car without headlights with a patrol runs along it, checking for danger, and they put the whole cassette of six missiles into this car. Who else has questions about KVO "Khimars"? GOS (homing head), of course, is aimed at heat, but you still had to get into the car! The boys died. There were 4 days left before the rotation.

Regarding our preparations for the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction, it was not in vain that I remembered the anecdote of Yuri Nikulin. Well, we won't do anything until we get the ass! Such is Russian nature. Back in the days of the Second World War, the Russians surprised the Germans, ours dug trenches for a maximum of two bayonets, and why - we will recapture from the Germans, there the "Hans" dug them to their full height and dugouts in three rolls, in which photos of naked women had not just hung on the walls, the Germans settled down as if they were going to spend the rest of their lives there (some of them, however, remained there!). No wonder they say - what is good for a Russian is death for a German! By the way, our people live at the Arctic stations for a year without unpacking their suitcases, and why - go home tomorrow. At the neighboring winter quarters, the Americans and the British settle down, as for the rest of their lives, but they don’t take a jacuzzi with saunas there. Paradoxes of mentality. But we fight better (the Yankees - those without warm toilets refuse to fight at all!). But with the non-brothers, the scythe found a stone.

The Russians harness slowly, but they drive fast!

What will be the views on the Crimean bridge? And the fact that the adversaries will fry him, I personally have no doubts. And you don’t compare the 227-mm guided M-30 with a cluster warhead and a range of 70 km - with the tactical, also GPS-guided ballistic missile M-48 ATACMS Block IA Unitary with a high-explosive warhead weighing 500 pounds (226,8 kg) and firing range up to 300 km. The last KVO has 3 m. The only good news is that you cannot install more than one missile on the M-48 launcher HIMARS. Therefore, in order to break through the air defense of the Crimean bridge, you need a salvo from 12 MLRS at once, and it’s not a fact that at least one will fly. And although Ukraine has already received so many M142 HIMARS vehicles from the Americans, they still need to be assembled in one sector of the front near Zaporozhye. By the way, you can also safely reach the base of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, but already from near Nikolaev (it can also be a very unpleasant surprise!). By the end of summer, the non-brothers expect to receive three M270B1s from the British and Norwegians (this is the European analogue of the American M270A1 MLRS, but with improved armor protection), as well as four MARS2 / LRUs from the Germans (this is a humane German version of the US M270A1 with the replacement of inhumane cluster munitions with humane high-explosive fragmentation). For those who are not aware of the M270A1 MLRS, this is the same type of M142 HIMARS only on a caterpillar track, carrying 12 M-30 missiles on a gun carriage (or 2 tactical ballistic M-48 missiles each).

In this whole story, the only good thing is that the non-brothers will be able to threaten Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge only with a division (12 pieces) M142, assembled on a narrow section of the front near Zaporozhye, where we will cover them if something happens. Take my word for it, Putin especially for them keeps four RTOs of project 21631 "Buyan-M" with eight winged "Caliber-NK" on each in the mode of constant combat readiness in the base of the Black Sea Fleet, after a salvo of 32 cruise missiles of which in the suburbs of Zaporozhye there, I'm afraid , there will be no one to bury. There, a hole is simply formed in the planet with a depth of a 9-storey building. The time of the missile's approach to the target is 110 sec. Warhead weight - 450 kg. Believe me, no one will find it small!

Probably, this point should be discussed in more detail in order to remove the fears of couch strategists about the safety of our Crimean bridge and the Black Sea Fleet base. All this horror and panic in the network is solely from ignorance of the performance characteristics of enemy products. We have absolutely nothing to be afraid of these US "wunderwaffes" and our generals, unlike couch strategists, are well aware of this and sleep peacefully. And for the "dummies" I will explain on my fingers. The fact is that the American vaunted Himars and their caterpillar European counterparts are no better, and even worse than our legendary Iskanders. Conventional 227 mm MLRS adapted for firing tactical ballistic missiles. Those. multiple launch rocket system, brought to the level of OTRK (operational tactical missile system). Well done Americans! Unified product.

Only our 300-mm MLRS "Tornado-S" is no worse, and even more powerful in caliber than these vaunted "Khimars", and the Iskander OTRK, so they generally surpass them by two or three orders of magnitude. OTRK "Iskander" is generally the fear and horror of America, according to the Americans themselves, the complex is the most dangerous weapon of the RF Armed Forces at the moment, since it will have a longer firing range than HIMARS (moreover, by an order of magnitude - "Iskander-K" flies at distance up to 4 thousand km and this is not the limit!), and it can fire not only ballistic Iskander-M, but also cruise missiles Iskander-K (and in one salvo!).

Caterpillar or wheel drive and the number of missiles on a carriage are not even fundamental for us here. The number of missiles in a salvo is fundamental. After all, in order to break through the air defense of the Crimean bridge or the base of the Black Sea Fleet, you need a massive volley to defuse the air defense systems of the air defense system. At distances up to 70 km, the non-brothers achieved this using the Soviet Hurricanes and Tornadoes, after which the American high-precision Himarsy entered the business. And then how are they going to break through air defense? Himarsami themselves? Well, God bless you! The rocket is not cheap! The Americans themselves have just enough of them (I'm talking about the 300-kilometer ballistic M-48 now). By the way, the Yankees themselves do not have many M142 complexes at all - 363 pieces. in the Ground Forces and another 47 units. in the Marine Corps. Total - 410 pieces, of which 12 units. already transferred to Ukraine, of which 4 units. already destroyed by the RF Armed Forces. Work, brothers, we are waiting for your new deliveries! By the way, the Yankees also have only 270 caterpillar M1A225s, but there is only one problem - they don’t fit into the plane, they will have to be transported by sea, and this is a long time.

Therefore, the only hope of the non-brothers in order to break through the air defense of the Crimean bridge is to get close to it at a distance of less than 70 km, but who will give them that?! Dreaming is not bad! The Yankees are only working on increasing the range of their jet artillery, until they reached the 150 km mark, and even then in prototypes (our experienced Tornado-S already fly 200 km). So, dear sofa patriots, sleep well - the non-brothers have nothing against Kostya Saprykin! The bridge will stand. Base CHMF too.

“You have to look here and listen to what I say! It’s not interesting – the door is there!” (V.V. Putin)

5 months after the start of the SVO, you begin to relate to Putin's words in a completely different way. Most interested people in the West, not to mention Ukraine, now hung on his every word. Did he say that “if a fight is inevitable, then you have to hit first”? Didn't believe? Now get out and don't say you weren't warned! Did he say that “now each subsequent proposal will be worse than the previous one”? Didn't believe? We look at Ukraine - we are not surprised! In March, she turned her nose, not agreeing to a neutral status and borders within the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, now she risks first drawing borders along the Dnieper, and if she does not agree, then along the Bug, i.e. virtually disappear from the political map of the world. And who now doubts that it will be so? Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, for example, recently said that the era of Western dominance is over. Well, why do they all get smarter only when they retire?

But Putin warned that “if you stick your head in, you will face consequences that you have never encountered before in your history”? Anyone willing to check? "Poseidon" has already taken up combat duty, how the "Daggers" work, all interested persons in the Pentagon have already seen - there is no escape from them (from the word "absolutely")! Who is the first in line to hell? USA? The Yankees asked not to borrow? Do the Poles want to skip the line? Well, well, we can arrange.

Putin's last words that "Russia, in fact, has not yet begun anything" made many think - what would that mean? How here over Europe there was an unprecedented heat. Even in Foggy Albion, the thermometer jumps over 42 * C. The trouble is simple! And the price of electricity was equal to the price of gold (it also could not have done without Putin, and there is no need to tell me that it was just gold that fell in price). It’s just that Grandma Zhara works for Putin, passing through Bortnikov’s department (who doesn’t know, this is the director of the FSB). I can’t even predict what will happen in the winter, given that Santa Claus is on Shoigu’s allowance, and on the general’s salary (though only in the autumn-winter period). And winter is just around the corner. And the gas in European storage facilities is still only half. Therefore, I hope that by February everything will be over with Ukraine. Both literally and figuratively.

That's all for me, the report is over. To all those concerned about Putin's health in the West, I promise that he will still catch a cold at Biden's funeral. But he will recover quickly. Because there is no time to get sick, he still has a lot to do. After all, after the wife of the Kyiv clown arrived at the White House, Biden caught covid-19, what a bad luck, politicians are unlucky with these Zelenskys, the Erdogan couple also caught covid-19 after a trip to Kyiv, now Biden. And grandfather is old, God forbid! While Putin, according to CIA director William Burns, is “even too healthy” for his age. The Yankees have no luck with our president. They envy his health, without even hiding it. Remember, Biden suggested at the meeting of the G-XNUMX to measure their torsos with him, Putin then still laughed - the spectacle, of course, is not for the faint of heart, given the athletic uniform of the members of this closed club. Johnson and offended sausage Scholz are naked to the waist - brr! I'm not even talking about Grandpa Joe or Ursula von Leyen. Well, let's not talk about sad things.

All peace and goodness. Your Mr X.