The reasons for the impending provocation in Azov
From October 9 to October 12 of this year, the Sea of Azov will be turbulent. Kiev closes part of its water area with the aim of conducting "naval exercises." According to the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Turchinov, a serious buildup of the military component will be a response to "provocations" from Russia. Some experts suggest the possibility of further escalation of the situation in Azov. Let’s try to figure out what is behind all this and what these “teachings” can turn into.
What does Ukraine have on the Sea of Azov today? Officially, its structure includes four ships. These are two small armored boats of the Gyurza-M project and graciously missed a tug “Korets” and a control vessel with the symbolic name “Donbass” under the Crimean bridge a couple of weeks ago. The Navy can reinforce maritime border guards, with a total of 18 ships and boats. Among them are the second “Donbass” (patrol boat of the “Tarantula” project) and “Onyx”, which was transformed from a confiscated Turkish fishing schooner into a combat craft by installing several machine guns on it. It is worth noting that the capture of the Russian seiner “Nord” was carried out just by the forces of “Onyx”, which started the Russian-Ukrainian problems in Azov. In addition, Nezalezhnaya Border Service has several boats of the Grif and Trap projects, moreover, one of the Grifs was previously drowned by a Donbass militia shot from a conventional ATGM.
In the future, this flotilla will be strengthened by decommissioned by the Americans, but still efficient patrol boats of the Island type. However, you can wait for their actual arrival on duty no earlier than next year. Also, Ukrainian forces on the Azov will be attended by ground forces and combat aircraft. So what can be the real goals of these maneuvers?
The final solution to the Donbass issue?
According to the DNR militia, the most dangerous area today is just the south. Shelling regularly occurs, resulting in casualties among the local population and its defenders. The real offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can take place from the Novo-Azov direction. Ukrainian exercises are taking place just off the coast related to the DPR. It is very possible that, on the pretext of the exercises, Kiev is concentrating a large group that can be used to strike a militia.
Elections in Ukraine?
As you know, the popularity of Petro Poroshenko today is extremely low among the population. In order to increase his rating, the current president is trying to work out the theme of the fight against “Russian aggression”, as well as modestly appropriating the status of restorer of the naval glory of Ukraine. If this does not work, there is an opportunity to arrange a conflict with Russia on the Sea of Azov, blame it on our country and introduce Martial Law. Presidential elections will be postponed until better times.
War on Azov and sanctions
Russian fishing and civilian vessels are guarded by the Border Guard and the military. But, despite this, they can become the object of Ukrainian provocation. Here is what the Kiev propagandist Butusov writes about this:
If Kiev wants to, an armed clash of Russian and Ukrainian naval forces may occur on the Sea of Azov. Obviously, the advantage is on the side of our Azov flotilla, and the armored boat Nezalezhnaya will go to the bottom. But this fact itself will be used against Russia by Western countries to introduce new sanctions measures.
The situation is not simple. In order to avoid further escalation, some experts suggest that Moscow block the Kerch Strait and decide for themselves who will be allowed to go into the Sea of Azov. As an option, it is possible to give the DNI several armored vehicles and long-range artillery. Moreover, friendly Abkhazia can do this, for example.
What does Ukraine have on the Sea of Azov today? Officially, its structure includes four ships. These are two small armored boats of the Gyurza-M project and graciously missed a tug “Korets” and a control vessel with the symbolic name “Donbass” under the Crimean bridge a couple of weeks ago. The Navy can reinforce maritime border guards, with a total of 18 ships and boats. Among them are the second “Donbass” (patrol boat of the “Tarantula” project) and “Onyx”, which was transformed from a confiscated Turkish fishing schooner into a combat craft by installing several machine guns on it. It is worth noting that the capture of the Russian seiner “Nord” was carried out just by the forces of “Onyx”, which started the Russian-Ukrainian problems in Azov. In addition, Nezalezhnaya Border Service has several boats of the Grif and Trap projects, moreover, one of the Grifs was previously drowned by a Donbass militia shot from a conventional ATGM.
In the future, this flotilla will be strengthened by decommissioned by the Americans, but still efficient patrol boats of the Island type. However, you can wait for their actual arrival on duty no earlier than next year. Also, Ukrainian forces on the Azov will be attended by ground forces and combat aircraft. So what can be the real goals of these maneuvers?
The final solution to the Donbass issue?
According to the DNR militia, the most dangerous area today is just the south. Shelling regularly occurs, resulting in casualties among the local population and its defenders. The real offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can take place from the Novo-Azov direction. Ukrainian exercises are taking place just off the coast related to the DPR. It is very possible that, on the pretext of the exercises, Kiev is concentrating a large group that can be used to strike a militia.
Elections in Ukraine?
As you know, the popularity of Petro Poroshenko today is extremely low among the population. In order to increase his rating, the current president is trying to work out the theme of the fight against “Russian aggression”, as well as modestly appropriating the status of restorer of the naval glory of Ukraine. If this does not work, there is an opportunity to arrange a conflict with Russia on the Sea of Azov, blame it on our country and introduce Martial Law. Presidential elections will be postponed until better times.
War on Azov and sanctions
Russian fishing and civilian vessels are guarded by the Border Guard and the military. But, despite this, they can become the object of Ukrainian provocation. Here is what the Kiev propagandist Butusov writes about this:
A purposeful search should be made for ships and crews from the Crimea that violated the laws of Ukraine - both in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Operations such as the detention of Nord should continue, this is one of the serious pain points of the Russian Federation, and we must continue to strike at this point.
If Kiev wants to, an armed clash of Russian and Ukrainian naval forces may occur on the Sea of Azov. Obviously, the advantage is on the side of our Azov flotilla, and the armored boat Nezalezhnaya will go to the bottom. But this fact itself will be used against Russia by Western countries to introduce new sanctions measures.
The situation is not simple. In order to avoid further escalation, some experts suggest that Moscow block the Kerch Strait and decide for themselves who will be allowed to go into the Sea of Azov. As an option, it is possible to give the DNI several armored vehicles and long-range artillery. Moreover, friendly Abkhazia can do this, for example.
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