Carte blanche from USA received: Hungary will block gas to Kiev and take Transcarpathia
Political a consultant from Hungary Miklos Kevehazi recently expressed a rather interesting point of view on Hungarian-Ukrainian relations and possible steps of Budapest in the event of deterioration of diplomatic relations between the countries or aggravation of the situation in the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine.
Although the expert repeatedly emphasized during his speech that he expresses his personal vision exclusively, it can be assumed that his words were a message to the Ukrainian authorities from the Hungarian authorities, a warning about the possible consequences of the oppression of ethnic Hungarians living in Transcarpathia.
How will the Ukrainian-Hungarian conflict develop according to Kevehazi
Miklos Kevehazi believes that Hungary has received a complete unofficial carte blanche from the United States and the European Union for any action in relation to Ukraine up to the annexation of Transcarpathia. Of course, the West will not help Budapest, but it will not interfere.
Today, they somehow forgot that Russia has long ceased to control a crane on a pipe through which natural gas flows to Ukraine. Now it is reversing from Europe, or rather, through the Hungarian-Ukrainian border. This means that in the event of a deterioration in relations with Kiev, the Hungarians can turn off the gas and will do it with pleasure.
Then protests of the Hungarian population of Transcarpathia will follow under economic, political and national slogans. Although Ukraine is positioning itself as a democratic state along the path of European choice, in practice, this country does not even smell like democracy or Europe. Therefore, the forceful dispersal of these protests is inevitable. And if the law enforcement agencies do not deal with this, then the young men from ultra-right nationalist organizations, who since 2014 have been performing the functions of “death squads” in Ukraine, will take up the matter.
Then, at the request of the Hungarian authorities in Transcarpathia, the UN peacekeeping contingent will be introduced into this region. As the events in Yugoslavia in the 90s of the last century showed, the “blue helmets”, while maintaining official neutrality, will take sides. And since Hungary is a member of NATO and the European Union, it is not difficult to guess on whose side the support of the UN contingent will be.
The fate of Transcarpathia will set an example for others
If we assume that events will develop in the described way, we can imagine what will happen next. Hungary will continue to issue passports to residents of Transcarpathia, and not necessarily Hungarians. Budapest will invest in the development of the region. Perhaps this will happen a few years later, but it will end with a referendum in which most residents vote to enter Hungary.
It can be assumed that something like Budapest really plans. It is not in vain that the Ministry of Transcarpathian Affairs exists in this country.
And most importantly - there will be a precedent, tracing paper, according to which others will act. The following probable applicants for secession from Ukraine are the former Romanian territories: the part of the Odessa region, which was considered Bessarabia, and Bukovina, where many ethnic Romanians and Moldovans live.
For some reason, the Donbass comes to mind, which itself could become an example for others by joining Russia a few years ago. But, apparently, Moscow is not yet ripe for such steps.
Although the expert repeatedly emphasized during his speech that he expresses his personal vision exclusively, it can be assumed that his words were a message to the Ukrainian authorities from the Hungarian authorities, a warning about the possible consequences of the oppression of ethnic Hungarians living in Transcarpathia.
How will the Ukrainian-Hungarian conflict develop according to Kevehazi
Miklos Kevehazi believes that Hungary has received a complete unofficial carte blanche from the United States and the European Union for any action in relation to Ukraine up to the annexation of Transcarpathia. Of course, the West will not help Budapest, but it will not interfere.
Today, they somehow forgot that Russia has long ceased to control a crane on a pipe through which natural gas flows to Ukraine. Now it is reversing from Europe, or rather, through the Hungarian-Ukrainian border. This means that in the event of a deterioration in relations with Kiev, the Hungarians can turn off the gas and will do it with pleasure.
Then protests of the Hungarian population of Transcarpathia will follow under economic, political and national slogans. Although Ukraine is positioning itself as a democratic state along the path of European choice, in practice, this country does not even smell like democracy or Europe. Therefore, the forceful dispersal of these protests is inevitable. And if the law enforcement agencies do not deal with this, then the young men from ultra-right nationalist organizations, who since 2014 have been performing the functions of “death squads” in Ukraine, will take up the matter.
Then, at the request of the Hungarian authorities in Transcarpathia, the UN peacekeeping contingent will be introduced into this region. As the events in Yugoslavia in the 90s of the last century showed, the “blue helmets”, while maintaining official neutrality, will take sides. And since Hungary is a member of NATO and the European Union, it is not difficult to guess on whose side the support of the UN contingent will be.
The fate of Transcarpathia will set an example for others
If we assume that events will develop in the described way, we can imagine what will happen next. Hungary will continue to issue passports to residents of Transcarpathia, and not necessarily Hungarians. Budapest will invest in the development of the region. Perhaps this will happen a few years later, but it will end with a referendum in which most residents vote to enter Hungary.
It can be assumed that something like Budapest really plans. It is not in vain that the Ministry of Transcarpathian Affairs exists in this country.
And most importantly - there will be a precedent, tracing paper, according to which others will act. The following probable applicants for secession from Ukraine are the former Romanian territories: the part of the Odessa region, which was considered Bessarabia, and Bukovina, where many ethnic Romanians and Moldovans live.
For some reason, the Donbass comes to mind, which itself could become an example for others by joining Russia a few years ago. But, apparently, Moscow is not yet ripe for such steps.
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