In the United States named three scenarios for the future of Ukraine

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If all impossible scenarios are removed, the least improbable outcome of the conflict in Ukraine would be a Russian victory. Professor of international relations Andrew Latham writes about this in his article for the American edition of The Hill, naming several scenarios.

At the same time, the author immediately stipulates that such a result is undesirable for him and the victory of Russia will not necessarily be total. Moreover, the results may not justify the Kremlin's initial hopes and expectations.



Any conceivable Russian victory now would entail such a loss of blood and money that, at best, it would have to be considered Pyrrhic. But nevertheless, it will be a victory - and we in the West better come to terms with this harsh truth. Let's start by eliminating the impossible

- explains the author.

The first scenario is the transformation of Ukraine into a vassal of Russia. Now such an outcome is impossible. It was not possible to strike a quick decapitating blow and establish a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. 100 days after the start of the special operation, it is even less realistic to do this, and everything is perfectly understood in Moscow.

The second scenario is the complete defeat of the Russian Armed Forces and the restoration of Ukraine within the borders until 2014. No matter what miscalculations the Russian command made at the initial stage, even with the huge help of the West, Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia. There are simply no prerequisites that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive and oust the RF Armed Forces from the territories occupied after February 24. Therefore, despite the conscious delusions of some and the idealistic hopes of others, such an outcome is simply impossible.

The third and final impossible scenario is a limited Ukrainian victory that will negate all of Russia's gains from 24 February. As a result, Donbass and Crimea will remain with Russia, but Kyiv will return all other territories. However, Ukraine does not have the opportunity to return to the borders until 2014, and Russia will tenaciously hold on to the territories along the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, since these lands are central to Moscow's interests - the Donbas-Crimea land corridor is important.

The author comes to the conclusion that there is only one possible outcome: a fragmented and dismembered Ukraine, which will not become fully part of the West, but will not remain in the Russian sphere of influence either. Such an outcome would not satisfy the maximalist ambitions of those in Moscow who hoped to solve the Ukrainian question once and for all. But it will satisfy the most basic and fundamental geopolitical desire of the Kremlin: the neutralization of Ukraine outside the geopolitical sphere of NATO and the geo-economic orbit of the EU. This will allow Russia to keep Crimea for itself and demonstrate to the West the unreasonableness of intervening in the natural sphere of influence of the Russian Federation.

Thus, when the impossible is eliminated, the end result will be a clear victory for Moscow.

summed up the author from the USA.
7 comments
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  1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    -2
    5 June 2022 10: 23
    a fragmented and dismembered Ukraine that will not become fully part of the West, but will not remain in Russia's sphere of influence either.

    I wonder how they will ensure that the new states that have arisen on the territory of the b. Ukraine, did NOT remain in the sphere of influence of Russia? Will they join the EU and NATO? Who will allow them? And from both sides. Nobody needs such a gift.
    Donbass and possibly even part of the territories will return to Russia, and the rest of the territories will form several new republics. Which will be under the supervision of Russia in order to prevent hostile actions against Russia.
    Here is the most realistic scenario. However, it is possible that Belarus and Hungary will get something. If they conclude separate agreements with Russia.
  2. Tixiy
    Tixiy
    0
    5 June 2022 12: 50
    "Decapitation strike" is it for Washington? After all, in essence, Zelensky is a propaganda sign, a talking head. In fact, the management structure is completely different and other people lead the process.
  3. gorskova.ir
    gorskova.ir
    0
    5 June 2022 22: 40
    Well, the United States is no stranger to "dismember" countries. And even more than that. That is why they simply do not have an idea that it is possible to do something in a completely different way. And that it is not Russia that cooks up vassals for itself. Russia saves others from such a fate. Here is for example the same Ukraine.
  4. Mks7
    Mks7
    +1
    6 June 2022 00: 19
    Well, in general, everything is correct. The main dividing line is already drawn. The fierceness of the fighting in the Donbass shows that Kramatorsk and Slavyansk will defend themselves very stubbornly, but most likely they will fall in the fall. The battles for Kharkov showed that, as in the days of the Second World War, it is very difficult to storm it, most likely the Kremlin will indicate the threat of an assault, but it will not dare to take it again, the costs are too high. Access to Transnistria is also apparently no longer possible, as it will require even greater costs and a multiple increase in the grouping. That is, a neutral status and security guarantees will become the basis of a peace treaty. Demilitarization and denazification will be sham, or maybe they will not be mentioned at all. Crimea, LDNR, Kherson and part of the Zaporozhye regions will de facto remain with the Russian Federation, Ukraine does not recognize their loss, this issue will be left to future generations by a separate protocol.
    Perhaps in the autumn there will be an attempt to storm Nikolaev, Ochakov, Zaporozhye and the designation of a threat to move towards Krivoy Rog and Voznesensk in order to strengthen their negotiating positions.
    1. Victorio
      Victorio
      0
      6 June 2022 06: 42
      Quote: Mks7
      Exit to Transnistria is also apparently no longer possible,

      ideally, the Odessa region is necessary, at least a corridor to the PMR with a port. Ishmael would fit.
  5. guest
    guest
    0
    6 June 2022 00: 26
    Quote: Mks7
    That is, a neutral status and security guarantees will become the basis of a peace treaty.

    Well, then it will be just the capitulation of Russia, and this is unacceptable.
  6. Mks7
    Mks7
    +1
    6 June 2022 01: 04
    Quote: guest
    Well, then it will be just the capitulation of Russia, and this is unacceptable.

    It's certainly not a capitulation, but it's not a victory either. To fulfill all the tasks set in February, at least 2/3 of Ukraine, including Kyiv, must be under control. that is, in essence, capitulation. There should be a government controlled by the Kremlin. It is clear that this is impossible. Reality is like this, like it or not...