100 days of SVO: the special operation will last another six months at least

Today we will talk about the topic that most concerns you, how long the hostilities in Ukraine will last and whether they will develop into a larger-scale conflict; let's rummage a bit in Biden's dirty linen (believe me, such skeletons crawled out there that it's simply incomprehensible to the mind how such people still head the most influential state in the world); and think about how we should respond to Washington's supply of long-range MLRS to Kyiv, which can easily reach the territory of the Russian Federation (for those who think that this will not affect him, I will remind you that Crimea is the territory of the Russian Federation, but Kyiv does not think so, as and Washington, in fact, too). Some especially hotheads here are already proposing to use our tactical nuclear weapons (and maybe even strategic nuclear weapons), I have a slightly different plan on how to raise the bar to the maximum without breaking into an exchange of nuclear strikes.

Laws of War

But first things first. Let's start with the sickest one - how long the databases in Ukraine will last. Military theorists, discussing this topic, appeal to history, citing certain facts and conflicts, in particular, the White Finnish war of 1939-40 (better known in historiography as the winter or Soviet-Finnish war). It lasted 105 days, from November 30, 1939 to March 12, 1940, and ended with the defeat of the White Finns with the loss of 11% of Suomi's territory.



But before analyzing this conflict, which indeed has a number of parallels with the current one, starting with the fact that it was the Soviet Union that initiated it, and ending with the fact that it was the Finns who offered the most fierce and competent resistance to the Red Army, I would like to explain why we we are conducting in Ukraine precisely the NWO, and not the war. The fact is that war has a number of laws that describe it, and by getting involved in it, you become their hostage, whether you like it or not. Having declared an official war on Ukraine, the Kremlin will not be able to end it so easily of its own accord. He can’t finish it anyway, because the collective West intervened in the matter in the person of its two representatives - London and Washington (moreover, in that order, and not vice versa!), Who are vitally interested in this war to last for the Russian Federation as as long as possible, exhausting and exhausting its resources, becoming a second Afghanistan for it. If this leads to an increase in discontent and protests within Russian society, which will end in a change of political leadership, and preferably also the collapse of the Russian Federation, then both of these comrades (mentioned above) will consider that all the tasks they have set for their Ukrainian wards have been completed by 200 %. In order not to bring them such joy, the Kremlin does not declare war, because getting out of it will require compliance with a number of formalities that one did not really want to observe with a “gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis.”

But, nevertheless, war has a number of laws and military theorists know them well. The most famous and most quoted of them, Carl Philipp Gottlieb von Clausewitz (1780-1831), claimed that


I think no one will argue with Clausewitz here, especially if we recall two more of his quotes:


Therefore, why Putin was the first to strike this blow, we will not discuss here today. Inflicted, which means that he had no other ways to solve this problem (more precisely, the West did not give him any!). But in delivering this blow, Putin has fallen into the paradigm of events that already govern him, not him. Sorry, these are the laws of war, call it whatever you want, even a special operation, even peace enforcement, at least somehow. It was not in vain that I cited the Soviet-Finnish war as an example above. If you notice, it lasted 105 days. This is not at all accidental. All wars, subject to objective laws, have reference points, passing through which they can go in one direction or another. These are some kind of bifurcation points. The 100 day mark is one of them. If the war has not ended in 100 days, then the next reference point will be 9 months (you can calculate for yourself when this happens - November 24). What will we have in the first decade of November? That's right, the midterm elections to the US Congress, to its lower house, where the Republicans win with a 100% guarantee, after which the financing of the Kyiv regime will asymptotically begin to tend to zero. Grandpa Joe, of course, will still be able to demand money from congressmen to continue the war, but no one will give him this money (with the majority of Republicans in the lower house, the Potomac will flow back rather than this will happen). Moreover, by then America will have its own problems through the roof, and double-digit inflation is only the smallest part of them. The second participant in this conflict, London, is a goal like a falcon, he has not only money, but even his own weapons to continue this war. Boris Johnson will, of course, gather around him his reptiles of Polish-Baltic appearance, but these dwarfs can only bark, while the Russian caravan continues its movement in the direction he needs.

It is not at all necessary that the war will end in November, after all, this is a task with many unknowns, but the fact that it will not end earlier is already a medical fact. Take it for granted. Arguing here with me is pointless, all complaints and suggestions to Sportloto or the United Nations. For a more primitive explanation for people who do not believe in military theories, I advise you to turn to more illustrative examples for them, for example, to the institution of marriage. Here everyone already knows that it can most likely disintegrate in the first - 1 year, 3 years, 7 years and beyond with a frequency of 7 years. Not the fact that it will fall apart, but there are prerequisites.

What history teaches

Our war would have already ended if not for the external factor. Returning to history, on November 30, 1939, the USSR also invaded Finnish territory without declaring war and also fell like chickens in cabbage soup. In the 1st phase of the war, the USSR, due to underestimation of the enemy, poor awareness of his weapons, technical equipment and fortification capabilities, suffered tangible (if not colossal) losses in manpower and technologymany times greater than the losses of the enemy.

The offensive of the Red Army was also carried out on a wide front, from the Karelian Isthmus and the northern Ladoga region to the battles in the Arctic and northern Finland, and also almost ended in a complete fiasco (remember our 1st stage of the NWO). On the Karelian Isthmus, the troops of the Red Army ran into the Mannerheim line and stood up (a direct analogy with the Donbass fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which we still cannot take). In the northern Ladoga region, the 139th division of the 8th army was completely defeated and two more rifle divisions of the Red Army (168th and 18th) were surrounded while trying to get out of which in the "valley of death" the 18th division, together with the 34th th tank brigade suffered losses equal to 10% of all losses of the Red Army in this war. At the same time, the Finns used the “motti” tactic, when, taking advantage of the advantage in mobility, detachments of skiers blocked roads clogged with sprawling Soviet columns, cut off the advancing groups and then methodically destroyed them (no associations with the 1st phase of the NWO?). There are still questions why we withdrew our troops from the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy directions, where they, stretching for a hundred kilometers, would be an ideal target for Ukrainian DRGs (especially with the onset of the “greenback”).

A similar situation developed in northern Finland, where the 163rd, 44th and 54th rifle divisions of the Red Army fell into the cauldron. The first two were completely destroyed by the smaller enemy forces. Stalin could not forgive this - most of the surviving commanders and commissars were removed from leadership and later shot, the brigade commander of the 34th tank brigade shot himself, and the brigade commander, commissar and chief of staff of the 44th division were shot right in front of the formation (almost the entire 44th division was destroyed or captured, only a small part managed to get out of the boiler, leaving all the equipment, weapons, including tanks, armored vehicles and artillery, and the convoy).

By the end of December, it became clear that attempts to continue the offensive would lead nowhere. There was a relative calm at the front. The command of the Red Army took a break (no associations with the NWO?). Throughout January and the beginning of February, the troops were strengthened, material supplies were replenished, and units and formations were reorganized. After that, from February 1, the artillery of the Red Army resumed daily shelling of the Karelian Isthmus, and 10 days later, on February 11, the troops of the newly created North-Western Front under the command of the commander of the 1st rank Timoshenko (later, following the results of the war, who replaced Voroshilov as People's Commissar of Defense), by forces The 7th and 13th armies, with the support of the ships of the Baltic Fleet and the Ladoga military flotilla created in October 1939, launched a general offensive along the entire isthmus and three days later broke through the Mannerheim line in the Lyakhde area, developing an offensive deep into Finnish territory.

By the beginning of March 1940, the Finnish government realized that, despite the demands of France and Britain to continue resistance, they would not receive any military assistance, except for volunteers and weapons, from the allies. And therefore, due to the impossibility of further restraining the offensive of the Red Army, a real threat of a complete seizure of the country loomed before them with an easily visible prospect of joining the USSR and the loss of statehood, or, at best, a change of leadership to a pro-Soviet one. As a result, the Finnish government turned to the USSR with a proposal to start peace negotiations. On March 7, a Finnish delegation arrived in Moscow, and on March 12 a peace treaty was signed, according to which hostilities ceased at 12 o'clock on March 13, 1940.

This fact is precisely the difference between the White Finnish war and the current events in Ukraine. The whole logic of the 100-day hostilities that took place there and a real assessment of their consequences in theory forces the Kiev leadership to agree to peace on any terms, if only to preserve statehood, albeit with the loss of territories. In the hope of accumulating strength and with the help of the collective West, later try to take revenge, recapture all the lost territories, including Crimea (I understand that this is nonsense, but it’s not harmful to dream). But the whole trouble is that Kyiv does not have any subjectivity, and no world is included in the plans of the West. On the contrary, they include war to the last Ukrainian. Therefore, the war will continue until the complete victory of one of the parties (guess which one three times?).

Foreign countries will help us

To finally convince you of the symmetry of events, I will give only the figures of Western military assistance to the Finnish side. Great Britain delivered to Finland 75 aircraft (24 Blenheim bombers, 30 Gladiator fighters, 11 Hurricane fighters and 11 Lysander reconnaissance aircraft), 114 field guns, 200 anti-tank guns, 124 automatic small arms, 185 thousand artillery shells, 17 bombs, 700 thousand anti-tank mines and 10 Boyce anti-tank rifles mod. 70.

France did not lag behind, which decided to supply Suomi with 179 aircraft (donate 49 fighters and sell another 130 aircraft of various types). However, in fact, during the war, only 30 MS406C1 fighters were donated (another 6 Caudron C.714 units arrived after the end of hostilities and did not participate in the war). Finland also received 160 field guns, 500 machine guns, 795 artillery shells, 200 hand grenades, 20 million rounds of ammunition, 400 sea mines and several thousand sets of ammunition. Sweden has supplied Finland with 29 aircraft, 112 field guns, 85 anti-tank guns, 104 anti-aircraft guns, 500 automatic weapons, 80 rifles, 30 artillery shells, 50 million rounds of ammunition, and other military equipment and raw materials.

Italy sent 35 Fiat G.50 fighters to Finland, but 5 aircraft were destroyed during their transfer and development by personnel. Also, the Italians handed over to Finland 94,5 thousand Mannlicher-Carcano rifles mod. 1938, 1500 Beretta pistols mod. 1915 and 60 Beretta M1934 pistols. Even the South African Union was noted, which donated 22 Gloster Gauntlet II fighters to Finland. The United States sold 44 Brewster F2A Buffalo fighters to Finland, but they arrived too late and did not have time to take part in the hostilities (what a shame, but the Yankees still got their money). In total, during the war, 350 aircraft, 500 guns, more than 6 machine guns and more were delivered to Finland. In addition, 12 thousand volunteers from Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hungary, the USA, Great Britain, Estonia and a number of other states, including Russian white émigrés, took part in the war on the side of Finland.

The whole free world fit in with the Finns, and where is the result? An indicative fact, the Germans, with whom the USSR had at that time signed a non-aggression pact (the very famous Molotov-Ribbentrop pact), on December 21 concluded an agreement with the Swedes, according to which Germany undertook to supply to Sweden as many weapons as she would transfer to Finland from her own reserves (no associations with the current Germans and Poland?). History goes in a spiral, only the blind can not notice this. And for some reason, once again, everyone unites against us. Why don't you know?

He promised to tell you more about Grandpa Joe and his skeletons, as well as how we can minimize the threats posed by the supply of long-range mobile MLRS systems, again American-made, but that's next time (sorry, didn't fit here).

On this I say goodbye, but I do not put an end to it, your Mr. X.