Wide-body airliner CR929 will fly to China, while Russia will remain with the Il-96-400


Finding itself in the conditions of an "air blockade" without the ability to buy new Western-made airliners and service those already purchased, Russia was forced to recall Soviet aircraft projects. The medium-haul Tu-214 and long-haul Il-96 are experiencing a second youth, which will be produced at 8,75% and 2 liners per year, respectively. A natural question arises, what will happen to the joint Russian-Chinese long-haul airliner CR929, in which Russia has pledged to invest about 10 billion dollars?


Expensive gift"


The promising long-haul liner CR929 is considered one of the most successful examples of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation. For once, we needed not natural resources, but serious Technology. Beijing is extremely interested in creating its own aircraft industry and has succeeded a lot in this. However, the development of wide-body airliners and heavy-duty power plants for them is aerobatics, which only a few advanced powers can do. Due to the presence of Soviet experience and developments in the IL-96, Russia was invited to participate in the Chinese project on an equal footing.

In total, three versions of the wide-body airliner will be created within its framework: the base CR929-600, the younger one - CR929-500 and the older one - CR929-700, which can carry from 230 to 320 passengers, depending on the configuration. In one of the modifications, up to 440 seats can be crammed into the aircraft. The flight range of the Russian-Chinese liner should be from 12 to 14 thousand kilometers. The needs of the Chinese aviation market in the next twenty years are estimated at about 1000 aircraft of this class, so from a commercial point of view, the project has good prospects.

Russia's share in this joint venture is 50%. The total amount of necessary investments is from 13 to 20 billion dollars. The main production will be deployed in China, our country will supply only composite wings and, in the future, PD-35 engines, which we will discuss in more detail later. For obvious reasons, the engineering center is located in Russia, and we will have our own set of technical documentation for the aircraft.

At first glance, everything is really good. By providing its technology, Russia gains, through a joint venture, access to China's gigantic domestic market and a 50% share of the sales of 1000 aircraft. However, this business has its own pitfalls. So, in 2019, the media got information that there was a misunderstanding with our Chinese partners about where exactly the liner would be certified, that is, whose de jure it would be considered, and there was also a proposal from the other side to separate sales of Chinese and Russian aircraft. production. In other words, two CR929s, Chinese and Russian, may appear, and their fate will obviously be different.

The Chinese version of the CR929 has a guaranteed market of 1000 aircraft, while the Russian domestic market in this segment is estimated to range from 50 to 120 aircraft in the next two decades. To put it mildly, it's incomparable. At the same time, Beijing will initially have the entire production base, with the exception, perhaps, of the wings and the engine, while in our country everything will have to be created from scratch. And this is for the sake of selling 50-120 wide-body airliners? As for the release of this aircraft on the world market, the prospects here are quite vague.

At first, we are not expected there now.

Secondly, Boeing and Airbus quite officially concluded a truce between themselves to combat the "Chinese and Russian threat."

Thirdly, even in the best case, the Russian CR929 will have to face exactly the same Chinese-made CR929, which will objectively be cheaper due to higher volumes and speed of assembly in China and lower costs.

Let's be realistic, nothing good will come of it in such a competitive struggle. In fact, Russia simply “gifted” a turnkey wide-body airliner to China. We put the word in quotation marks only because there is a 50% stake in the joint venture, which gives reason to hope for a return of 10 billion dollars, which still has to be invested so that the Chinese have their own CR929.

Another guarantee against unscrupulous "kidnapping" if suddenly the Chinese partners decide to reduce UAC's share in the joint venture or buy it out at a reasonable price is dependence on the supply of engines. Initially, the liner was planned to be created in international cooperation, and in Beijing they looked at the British Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine and the American GEnx from General Electric. In the future, they were supposed to be supplemented by the Russian PD-35, towards the end of the decade, of which it was planned to produce and deliver 600 units by 2060.

Now it is obvious that neither the UK nor the US will supply their power plants to China. All that remains is our PD-35, which is not yet in hardware, and the promising AEF3500, which the Chinese hastily began to develop in the past few years. A representative of the Chinese corporation AECC CAE describes its characteristics as follows:

It is a turbofan engine with a high bypass ratio. Its main characteristics are low fuel consumption, low emissions, low noise performance, long life cycle, low operating costs.

Sounds good, but not the fact that they will succeed. Independently create and mass-produce a heavy-duty aircraft engine is a serious problem, you can’t get off with simple copying.

So, what do we have in the bottom line. There is a promising CR929 with a huge Chinese market, which objectively cannot be launched without Russian engines. There is Russia itself, which was left without the supply of Western-made liners, but has an excellent Soviet backlog in all market segments and has resumed small-scale production of medium-haul Tu-214 and long-haul Il-96. Having our own wide-body airliner, it makes no sense to fence the garden with the localization of our CR929.

Everything, this is objectively already a Chinese aircraft, which we almost "gave" them. In order for the quotes to really not disappear, it is necessary to accelerate the development and certification of the heavy-duty PD-35 as much as possible in order to start supplying it to China for the production of CR929. No joint ventures with their localization in China should be allowed - only the sale of finished engines in the assembly! Then a share of 50% from the sales of liners will definitely not float away.

We ourselves will fly on our native Il-96-400s, which also need to be remotorized for PD-35s and, possibly, equipped with composite wings. The entire production and component base for them is available, the series will gradually grow. With two such powerful modern power plants instead of four PD-90A, the modernized Russian airliner will be able to compete with both Western and Chinese classmates.
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  1. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
    Oleg_5 (Oleg) April 10 2022 16: 34
    -3
    We don't need it now. Not to fat. Nowhere to fly on it.
    MS-21 and SSJ to bring to mind. Not spraying.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 10 2022 19: 13
      0
      We don't need it now.

      Come on. Why then will they do 2 pieces?

      MS-21 and SSJ to bring to mind. Not spraying.

      Yes, but when will it be up to fat? How many years the plane is brought to mind?
      1. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
        Oleg_5 (Oleg) April 10 2022 20: 05
        -2
        In a couple of years, we will have nothing to fly within the country. Because A and B will run out, even those that are as spare parts.
        And we will not yet put on our own in the required quantity.
        In this situation, investing crazy funds in a long-haul, despite the fact that almost all long-distance routes are closed to us, is just some kind of waste ...
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 11 2022 06: 40
          +1
          Did you even read the article? Nobody offers to invest crazy money there. Il-96-400 and the component base for it already exist. PD-35 is already being developed
          1. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
            Oleg_5 (Oleg) April 11 2022 09: 31
            0
            I actually read it, yes.

            We ourselves will fly on our native Il-96-400s, which also need to be remotorized for PD-35s and, possibly, equipped with composite wings. The entire production and component base for them is available, the series will gradually grow. With two such powerful modern power plants instead of four PD-90A, the modernized Russian airliner will be able to compete with both Western and Chinese classmates.

            that's just THIS there about IL-96-400
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) April 10 2022 16: 48
    0
    Having our own wide-body airliner, it makes no sense to fence the garden with the localization of our CR929.

    We ourselves will fly on our native Il-96-400s, which also need to be remotorized for PD-35s and, possibly, equipped with composite wings.

    In my opinion it looks like self-hypnosis and persuasion. Like, let's not, please. It's scary indeed. We have our own Orthodox plane and we don't need a new one.
    And actually why not? In the new aircraft, Chinese development:

    fuselage and plumage

    Russian development

    center section, wing consoles with mechanization, avionics and control system and engine.

    And why can't it be released in Russia? Especially if you localize the production of the fuselage and plumage at home?
    Are you categorically against updating the lineup of airliners?
    With a shudder I wait when you get to the automotive industry.
    VAZ-2107 and GAZ-31 are our everything and do not need anything else?
    Understand that time does not stand still, technology develops, moves forward, you cannot stand still, so you can fall behind forever. This means that we will produce components for the Chinese, but we cannot use them ourselves. We are not worthy to fly on a new aircraft, largely developed by Russian engineers and consisting of Russian components?

    The Chinese are indeed a difficult partner, they strive to concentrate production at home as much as possible. I don’t know how the negotiations will end there, but I see no reason to abandon production in my country.
    The arguments are somehow irrational, similar to complexes and fear of everything new. Or is it a desire to impose mistakes that journalists can criticize for decades and not be left without work? smile
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 10 2022 19: 11
      -3
      And why can't it be released in Russia? Especially if you localize the production of the fuselage and plumage at home?
      Are you categorically against updating the lineup of airliners?
      With a shudder I wait when you get to the automotive industry.
      VAZ-2107 and GAZ-31 are our everything and do not need anything else?

      What kind of talker-demagogue are you.

      The arguments are somehow irrational, similar to complexes and fear of everything new. Or is it a desire to impose mistakes that journalists can criticize for decades and not be left without work? smile

      I feel sorry for you.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) April 10 2022 19: 28
        +5
        What kind of talker-demagogue are you.
        I feel sorry for you.

        Iron arguments good Since this is all you have to argue on the topic, allow me to take my leave hi
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 11 2022 06: 42
          -1
          Why should I object to you? I wrote a number of articles on the topic, and everything written in them came true. This will also come true.
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) April 11 2022 10: 13
            +2
            Why should I object to you? I wrote a number of articles on the topic, and everything written in them came true. This will also come true.

            Can you elaborate on your prediction? Do you predict that CR929 will not be produced in Russia? Or what?
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 11 2022 07: 04
      -2
      And why can't it be released in Russia? Especially if you localize the production of the fuselage and plumage at home?
      Are you categorically against updating the lineup of airliners?

      This is called wrecking: when you have your own mass-produced Il-96, invest billions in the localization of an aircraft of the same class, for which there is a small market. You are right to fear the return of the USSR. You would be brought to a well-deserved criminal responsibility for this, following Pogosyan and Co.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) April 11 2022 10: 23
        +1
        This is called wrecking: when you have your own mass-produced Il-96, invest billions in the localization of an aircraft of the same class, for which there is a small market. You are right to fear the return of the USSR. You would be brought to a well-deserved criminal responsibility for this, following Pogosyan and Co.

        Are you a principled opponent of progress? I understand correctly?
        And as for the USSR, do you know how the Tu-22M appeared? They created a new aircraft and told the management that this is how the Tu-22 was modernized. I do not rule out that the creators could be brought to criminal responsibility. It looks like mossy retrogrades like you sat in the leadership.
  3. lance is gone Offline lance is gone
    lance is gone (lance) April 10 2022 16: 54
    +1
    pd-35 and composite wing is the most advanced in the Chinese liner. This is well understood in the People's Republic of China. but you can always shove more modern electronics into IL 96.
  4. Scharnhorst Offline Scharnhorst
    Scharnhorst (Scharnhorst) April 10 2022 17: 00
    +3
    It seems to me that this is the second panic article from the author in a couple of days. Say thank you that the military aviation of the Russian Federation in no way depends on foreign components. Although the same Americans do not hesitate to spread their production over satellites a little with their f-35. At the moment, the wings and engines for the wide-body Chinese are already a huge success for our industry and science. And for the domestic market of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, even 12 Il-96s a year will be an occasion to pierce a hole in the lapel. And of course, taking into account the past years and prospects, some version of "NEO" will stir up.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 10 2022 19: 08
      0
      It seems to me that this is the second panic article from the author in a couple of days.

      What? Where is the panic? And what was the first one?

      Say thank you that the military aviation of the Russian Federation in no way depends on foreign components.

      Thank you.

      Although the same Americans do not hesitate to spread their production over satellites a little with their f-35.

      What kind of sanctions are they afraid of?

      At the moment, the wings and engines for the wide-body Chinese are already a huge success for our industry and science.

      Who is arguing?

      And for the domestic market of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, even 12 Il-96s a year will be an occasion to pierce a hole in the lapel.

      Undoubtedly.
    2. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) April 11 2022 01: 39
      0
      The Chinese want technology, not competitors. They are scaling them not only for passenger aircraft, but for everything else, which they still cannot do: super-heavy transport workers (it was not in vain that they tried to buy Ruslan and Mriya, but the United States banned the sale of Ukrainians), air carriers for their shuttles for acceleration of space exploration, etc.
      Only an idiot can really sell still unique technologies and set up a full production cycle for the CHINESE. They are already taking away our market share in terms of weapons - of which 80-90% are Soviet / Russian UNLIMITED copies.
      They don’t need competitors, they need “idiots” with technologies.
      Now is a good time to leave the project. Spare parts will be needed - will be bought separately.
      1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 11 2022 06: 47
        +2
        Now is a good time to leave the project. Spare parts will be needed - will be bought separately.

        In general, yes. Force majeure is fine. Let them buy our IL-96s later. smile
  5. Panikovsky Offline Panikovsky
    Panikovsky (Mikhail Samuelevich Panikovsky) April 10 2022 17: 46
    0
    If there were motors, an airplane under them would be spoken faster than you think. The problem is with motors. Ready-made Ka-226 and Ansat helicopters are waiting for the VK-800 engine. Yes, and TV7-117 needs to be finished for silts, people have died, and now gliders can design everything, for Russia this is not the most relevant. The pd-35 will be ready, there will be a glider, and the best one at that.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 10 2022 19: 09
      0
      If there were motors, an airplane under them would be told faster than you think.

      It doesn't seem like anything to me.
      1. Panikovsky Offline Panikovsky
        Panikovsky (Mikhail Samuelevich Panikovsky) April 21 2022 20: 15
        0
        That's right too.
  6. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) April 10 2022 19: 15
    +1
    most likely the Chinese did not develop any fuselage, the entire aircraft was designed in the Russian Federation, because they did not design their average Chinese analogue of the a320, they say the French did it. they have not yet matured to civilian aircraft, they can only copy, they will receive all the documents then they will rivet pushing the Russian Federation to the side, like German high-speed trains, sending the Germans to one place

    if the West agrees to sell engines and if the Chinese themselves make a composite wing,
    the Chinese will rivet copies at their state-owned company, and the joint venture with the Russian Federation will go bankrupt and close, and they don’t give a damn, because the Russian Federation needs a major buyer of oil and gas. to prevent this from happening, it is necessary to protect the documents for important components of the aircraft so that they do not get to Chinese intelligence
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 11 2022 07: 01
      0
      most likely the Chinese did not develop any fuselage, the entire aircraft was designed in the Russian Federation, because they did not design their average Chinese analogue of the a320, they say the French did it. they have not yet matured to civilian aircraft, they can only copy, they will receive all the documents then they will rivet pushing the Russian Federation to the side, like German high-speed trains, sending the Germans to one place

      Not most likely, but definitely our aircraft was designed from start to finish on the basis of experience in the IL-96.

      if the West agrees to sell engines and if the Chinese themselves make a composite wing,

      The West will refuse. The wing is easy to make.

      the Chinese will rivet copies at their state-owned company, and the joint venture with the Russian Federation will go bankrupt and close, and they don’t give a damn, because the Russian Federation needs a major buyer of oil and gas.

      This will eventually end the matter.
  7. unimog1 Offline unimog1
    unimog1 April 10 2022 23: 54
    0
    Absolutely appropriate, balanced opinion of the author in everything. History has repeated itself, I think once again ALREADY repeated. Yak-130, Yak-141, Kaskol, Israeli avionics at Mig-29, Antonov, Zaporozhye, snecma on Sukhoi, MIG with the Chinese, thousands of examples of how contemporaries pissed off the heritage accumulated by fathers and grandfathers for posterity. Waking up in 30 years in the same place, when others who were behind or far behind were in it or in front, is not the best feeling when enemies and imaginary well-wishers make you open your eyes. Understanding who our friends are should already be fixed in our heads, for the sake of the future. And the world has only one. The world of hucksters, inevitably crossing the line of murder, has no future. And the decision on the rationality of a decision is not so difficult to make, if we exclude as a factor, someone's personal finances. interests. The Soviet experience has perfectly proved the effectiveness, including financial, of the ways of succession of designs, modernization. 96th 204th is only in the middle of this path. MS and SSJ have not started it yet. Dry in time trouble caused by losses due to effective management sabotage with the French in Rybinsk. And the opinion of the previous speaker 1_2 also attracts attention as archaic.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 11 2022 06: 45
      -1
      Absolutely appropriate, balanced opinion of the author in everything.

      Thanks for your kind words.
      It’s funny for me now to read the attempts of the number 123 to oppose me. He had previously written in comments on the topic of aviation, but in the end everything I wrote about came true. This will come true too. smile
      1. unimog1 Offline unimog1
        unimog1 April 11 2022 23: 23
        +1
        As my wonderful friend, Gagik Gareginovich Grigoryan, an old Armenian shoemaker, says - your words, yes to God (Rogozin, Manturov, Shoigu) in the ears. It is difficult for us to explain to lovers of mythology (who have an opinion, because they imagine) that the resumption of work on finished structures with subsequent modernization based on modern achievements of TsIAM, TsAGI (which, by the way, both Boeing and Airbus flies), Kharkov may soon start working on hydraulics , in any case, will raise personnel to the upper level of competencies. With regards to the financial component, it is ridiculous to talk about joint work with those to whom we have nothing to give, except for microcircuits. We've been in this shit for 30 years, to wash off. Tales about SDI before, about the fifth generation of the last 30 years, still affect someone. They will be hysterical until Sukhoi provides them with something that looks like an apparatus from an American science fiction film. Technical and technological details are not important to them, they are too lazy to strain. But since 89 I have been saying to everyone: when a person is too lazy to find out what is in his household, he will never know what was stolen from him. Chernomyrdin - Gore and all the 90s and 10s are an example of this. With whales now, as with Aermacchi, the question of the distribution of markets, as always, comes as a surprise, although in the beginning it was necessary to sign everything about this. Self-sufficiency is our only way. It seems that now is the time to understand. It was time to scatter bottles, it's time to collect them. Yes, I'm afraid that Homo Vulgaris will fix the grave.
  8. Pavel57 Offline Pavel57
    Pavel57 (Paul) April 11 2022 00: 21
    +1
    Air transportation planning in the conditions of the global world crisis, which will inevitably affect China, is a thankless task. From the air transportation model, the need for fleet models arises. Here is the fact that China, most likely, will not receive Western engines - this is true, and we have a chance.
  9. Alexey Klimov Offline Alexey Klimov
    Alexey Klimov (Alexey Klimov) April 11 2022 06: 20
    0
    We, as before in the USSR, have excellent weapons and transport at a snail's pace.
    1. Polente the Wanderer April 12 2022 13: 36
      0
      They bake destroyers, aircraft carriers like pies ... And we have a long, hard work to build a corvette, a frigate ...
  10. Kade_t Offline Kade_t
    Kade_t (Igor) April 11 2022 10: 55
    0
    PD-35, you still need to finish it, this is a powerful and economical engine, it will fit our IL-96-400, and the Chinese have nowhere to go without European and American engines.
    1. Jfft6443 Offline Jfft6443
      Jfft6443 (CastisOmniaCasta) April 30 2022 23: 46
      0
      PD-35 needs to be finished anyway, because we still need to make a new transporter to replace the AN-124. And it is impossible to redesign the four-engine IL-96 for two engines with twice the power. So much will have to be redesigned that it will be a different plane. So much so that it will be called at the right time already, somehow, according to a new and not an old name.
  11. Polente the Wanderer April 12 2022 13: 34
    0
    They will disassemble the engine even without localization and make exactly the same but with a Chinese name. For this, they have everything ...
  12. We must not look at the Chinese, but put into production IL-96, otherwise we will soon ride donkeys!
  13. Jfft6443 Offline Jfft6443
    Jfft6443 (CastisOmniaCasta) April 30 2022 23: 29
    0
    Having engines and wings (perhaps the most complex structural elements of an aircraft), how long will it take to “compose” your own fuselage under them.
  14. Chevrolet Camaro (Nikolay Lukashev) 7 June 2022 07: 41
    0
    IL 96-400 Russia still oh how needed!!!