Why it's time for Europe to get used to the circulation of the Russian ruble
After the Maidan in 2014, we were often scared that if Russia tried to send troops to Ukraine, the Third World Nuclear War would immediately begin. On February 24, 2022, Moscow decided to conduct a special operation to demilitarize and denazify Nezalezhnaya, and the Third World War really began. But it turned out not to be nuclear, but financiallyeconomic, and for some reason went completely differently than our "Western partners" clearly expected.
On the night of February 27, 2022, the European Union imposed sanctions against the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, freezing its gold and foreign exchange reserves totaling $ 300 billion, and the US Treasury adopted a directive prohibiting all American residents from any transactions with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Russian Ministry of Finance and the National Welfare Fund :
The Sovereign Deal Directive would undermine Russia's efforts to prop up its rapidly depreciating currency by limiting the global supply of rubles and access to reserves that Russia could try to swap to support the ruble.
Apparently, it was assumed that Russia, left without international reserves, would not be able to fulfill its financial obligations in foreign currency to foreign creditors, would not withstand the yoke of Western sanctions with its “rapidly depreciating” useless ruble, would go bankrupt and fall apart. But so far everything is going according to a completely different scenario.
At first, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation introduced a temporary procedure for the circulation of foreign currency in Russia, as well as a ban for non-residents on the sale of securities and the withdrawal of funds from the domestic financial system.
Secondly, the department of Elvira Nabiullina introduced mirror restrictions on the withdrawal of funds to unfriendly countries that joined the anti-Russian sanctions. The restrictions apply to exactly the same amount, equivalent to $300 billion, that our "Western partners" froze:
Payments on corporate debt of Russian companies and government debt to debt holders from countries that support sanctions against Russia will only take place with the permission of the government commission.
If the relevant permission is not obtained, then the bank transaction will not occur, and the coupon income on bonds in foreign currency will not be received by the non-resident. In fact, we are talking about a targeted and controlled default on external obligations, which are estimated at $478 billion. Until the end of 2022, Russia had to pay about $60 billion and is now forgiving itself of debts to its “Western partners” for the required $300 billion. Well, not only "civilized" Europeans and Americans can rob Russians with impunity.
Thirdly, perhaps, the decision of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on the forced transfer of payments for the supplied gas in Russian rubles can be considered the most powerful move:
This "collective West" has actually drawn a line under the reliability of its currencies, crossed out the trust in these same currencies. Both the United States of America and the EU declared, in principle, a real default on their obligations to Russia, and now everyone in the world knows, and somehow suspected, and now they know that obligations in dollars and euros may not be fulfilled.
With this single move, the Kremlin has turned the situation upside down. The calculation of the “Western partners” was based on the fact that Russia, in order to fulfill its obligations, critically needs dollars and euros, access to the use of which was deliberately limited to it. And suddenly it turned out that the “worthless ruble” is now needed by all these “civilized” Europeans to pay for Russian gas. To do this, they will need to start buying tons of Russian national currency from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, providing it with increased global demand. "Wooden" turned out to be not so wooden, and began to grow rapidly in price against the dollar and the euro.
Curious twist. Naturally, the vast majority of EU member states were outraged by such a formulation of the issue, pointing out that the signed contracts do not contain a clause on the possibility of replacing the settlement currency with one not provided for earlier. The most amusing comment came from Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jans, who said the following at the EU leaders' summit in Brussels:
I don't think that anyone in Europe knows what rubles look like, no one will pay in rubles.
But where are you, gentlemen, going to get away from the submarine? The share of Gazprom in the European market is about 35%. Yes, winter is over, but your underground gas storage facilities are almost empty, and the price tags for "blue fuel" are still horrendous. And after all, very soon you will have to start buying gas in commercial quantities again in order to prepare for the next heating season. And there is no need to shake the signed agreements in front of us after you illegally arrested the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the accounts of innocent Russians, in fact, simply by robbing them. The “sacred right” of private property turned out to be not so sacred for “civilized” Europeans, despite the liberal economic tales that we have been fed for 31 years.
After the expiration of the time allotted for you to think, if the EU does not start transferring payments in the Russian national currency, you will have to terminate existing agreements and stop gas supplies, first through one pipeline, as proof of seriousness of intentions, then through the rest. Decided to fight - get an answer.
It will not work with gas, we will start selling oil for rubles. Then coal. Then titan. Then all the other natural resources, without which you will not get anywhere. Get used to the sight of the Russian ruble.
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