Support for the Kiev regime put Europe in front of a difficult choice

Against the backdrop of a military operation conducted by the Russian Defense Ministry in Nezalezhnaya, gas prices in Europe exceeded $2400 per 1 cubic meters. The leading Western powers are forced to pay a high price for years of support for the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine. Now the “hegemon” has put its European allies in a very difficult dilemma.

Without Russian gas

One of the obvious goals of the coup d'état in Ukraine, which is a strategically important transit country for Gazprom, was to reduce the share of Russian gas in the European market. Experts assumed that the domestic monopolist should have lost up to a third of export volumes, which were supposed to be replaced by American LNG. And now the International Energy Agency (IEA) has presented a concrete plan, clearly written in Washington, for an emergency reduction by a third of EU imports of "aggressive" Russian gas. According to his reading, any normal European consumer will grab his head.

At first, "advisers" propose not to renew existing contracts with Gazprom, which will expire by themselves until 2030. Thanks to such economic masochism, Europe will "get rid" of 55 billion cubic meters of gas. This is about a third of the total volume of Russian exports.

Secondly, for the sake of supporting the Nazi regime in Kyiv, ordinary Europeans are invited to freeze a little in winter, lowering the temperature in their homes by 1 degree Celsius. This will save 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year on purchases from the "aggressor". Instead of gas boilers, the IEA is advised to massively introduce electric heaters and heat pumps powered by electricity. Electricity bills could end up being such that the EU will have to subsidize utility bills in the order of $200 billion.

Thirdly, it is proposed to return to nuclear energy, which in a number of European countries has been anathematized. For example, Germany recently stopped three power units at once, but technically nothing prevents it from reactivating its nuclear power plants. American Westinghouse and French Orano SA (until 2018 - Areva SA) will undoubtedly be happy with this turn of events, as there will be increased demand for their services.

Fourthly, it is imperative to increase investment in RES (renewable energy sources).

Fifthly, it will be necessary to pump up underground gas storage facilities to the maximum. The pleasure will be very expensive, since the prices for 1 thousand cubic meters bite a lot. It is obvious that the business will not work to the detriment of itself.

At sixth, The International Energy Agency advises finding additional volumes of hydrocarbons in Norway and Azerbaijan, as well as more actively buying LNG. True, where the surplus pipeline gas will come from is not specified. It is not clear how much LNG will cost the Europeans, for which they will have to enter into price competition with Southeast Asia.

Seventh, it is proposed to bet on renewable gas, namely biogas and biomethane.

It is obvious that European support for the Nazi regime in Kyiv will cost Western countries a pretty penny. Because the Old World offer an alternative.

Rejection of "decarbonization"

Everything is simple here: if the EU is not ready to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to give up Russian hydrocarbons, then the Europeans will have to give up their “green dream”. It will be enough to return to the active use of traditional energy sources, from which the European Union tried so hard to get away, and Gazprom will lose at least half of its sales market. It will be necessary not only to restore the operation of nuclear power plants, but also the consumption of extremely environmentally harmful coal. In this case, a change in the energy leader in the Old World may occur.

The place of Germany, which planned to become a gas hub, will be taken by neighboring Poland, which will become a coal hub. Warsaw can quickly become the largest exporter of this type of energy in the region. At the same time, one should not forget about its new gas pipeline called the Baltic Pipe, through which the Poles will receive up to 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Scandinavia. Thus, Poland, the most loyal US ally in Eastern Europe, will be able to strengthen its geopolitical influence by moving Germany.

Third way?

Both options, as they say, are worse, and therefore, in their pure form, it is obvious that neither one nor the other will be accepted. The fact that the European Union will try to quickly reduce its dependence on Gazprom is no longer in doubt, but Brussels will not act to its own detriment either. For sure, a third, compromise path will be chosen.

So, no one will immediately refuse Russian gas, of course, but the timing of the implementation of plans for "decarbonization" may slightly shift to the right. The search for alternative energy sources will accelerate, for example, the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project will move forward. Active construction of new LNG tankers to transport large volumes of gas will begin. Additional investments in RES will be poured. Nuclear energy will get a second wind, and for some time even a "coal revenge" is possible.

Taken together, this means that Russia still has a certain lag in time, when there will be a significant decrease in the volume of hydrocarbon exports and foreign exchange earnings. But it will not be long at all, and therefore it is necessary to think carefully about what our country will earn in the near future.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 March 2022 12: 44
    Maximum on Monday, Gazprom must pay 1,3 billion dollars to European companies. These are payments for credit support for oil and gas projects in Russia.

    Option one - Gazprom will refuse to pay (sanctions, blocking of accounts, etc.). Declares itself bankrupt and stops pumping gas to the EU.
    Cons - lawsuits and other delights. Pluses - the price of gas in the EU soars to ... (fantasy has no limits). And the war in Ukraine will stop within a maximum of a few days.

    Option two - Gazprom will pay this debt (the money for this is included in the budget of Gazprom and they are there)
    Cons - continues to support the enemies of Russia and, first of all, Ukraine (transit fee). Pros: I don't watch it. I don’t understand how you can supply resources to enemies.

    The decision will not be made by Gazprom. And not even the cabinet. The decision is made at the level of the President.
  2. Troy Henry Offline Troy Henry
    Troy Henry (Henry) 5 March 2022 13: 06
    at one time alarmists were put up against the wall ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 March 2022 15: 40
      It's worth starting with fools. hi
  3. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
    gunnerminer (gunner miner) 5 March 2022 14: 59
    The US benefits. We got the opportunity to turn off our methane. Having promoted the EU for the construction of terminals and LNG gas carriers. But in South Korea, orders for gas carriers are booked years in advance. In China too. Get new NATO members. Finns and Swedes. The Baltic Sea is a naval theater both in 1938 for the USSR and now for Russia. They forced the Euro-NATOs to pay 2%, according to the NATO charter. They got the opportunity to push through their weapons due to the loss of their positions by Rosoboronexport.
  4. Rusa Offline Rusa
    Rusa 6 March 2022 00: 06
    And therefore, it is necessary to think carefully about what our country will earn in the near future.

    Deep processing of natural gas in the Russian Federation is a huge reserve.
    In addition, the development of science-intensive industry: electronics, construction of civil aviation and shipbuilding, machine tool building, mechanical engineering, production of grain and other agricultural products, woodworking products, furniture, building materials, etc.
    1. gunnerminer Offline gunnerminer
      gunnerminer (gunner miner) 6 March 2022 12: 35
      Tens of thousands of qualified personnel are needed to implement plans in these areas. Now. Modern equipment was previously supplied from the USA, from the UK, from Germany. And hundreds of billions of rubles. No financial sanctions have been lifted.
  5. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
    antibi0tikk (Sergei) 6 March 2022 18: 57
    Good people, please help! Nah, I don’t need money, my mind is failing me and education ... Please share your knowledge (or, as it’s fashionable to say now, competencies!)
    I have no doubts about the credibility of the IEA !!!! Such plans were painted, I really admire the scale of the plans !!!! Only I would add something like: eighth, drill a thousand wells to the core of the earth and install heat pumps in every apartment and factory; ninth, send a starship to the sun and let them bring a bit of this yellow dwarf to warm the Europeans; tenthly, to conclude contracts with aliens for the introduction of alien technologies, etc., etc. ...
    Okay, there with the refusal of Gazprom's supplies and the launch of a nuclear power plant, everything is more or less clear with this, and even then a nuclear power plant is not a battery, where he inserted a new bullshit and away we go !!! But something doesn’t agree with me, for example, with RES. In the same place, after all, he planted a seed in the ground and the windmill grew !!! Or stuck a couple of sticks and obana - a solar panel !!!! Is not it??? Or is there any wise electronics needed with rare earth metals, most of which are mined in China, but something like palladium is also imported from Russia? Probably all sorts of metal structures are needed there, and the EU imports metal, including from Russia. What are the blades and solar panels made of? Not some kind of plastic? And plastic seems to be made from oil, gas, etc. produce ..... Oh, they again returned to the supply of gas and oil from Russia ...
    Some kind of crap is also obtained for filled gas storage facilities. Well, they will fill them to capacity, these reserves will last for a year or two. And then what???
    Find additional volumes? Okay, found it! Maybe even they will actually find it, and not like Svidomo - it turns out there is a lot of gas in the transit pipe, you can steal light-footed ones !!!! After these additional volumes have been found, they still need to be delivered to the EU somehow. But with this - zrada, sadness and despondency ....
    Biogas and methane??? This is what is obtained from garbage and cow cakes ??? Well, that's great!!!! Togo and you look all the garbage will be taken back from Africa, and we will throw ours to them !!!! And huge herds of cows all over Europe!!!! Beauties!!!!!
    In general, I recall the famous toast from the work of the classic: So that our desires coincide with our capabilities !!!!