The daily escalation of tension in Donbas speaks of the inevitability of a military clash in one form or another. Mines and shells are exploding on the territory of the LDNR, the civilian population is being evacuated, the army of the republics is preparing to be replenished with volunteers, as in 2014.
The main beneficiary and initiator of the war
The culprit of the conflict is the United States, whose leadership has launched a large-scale information campaign and is pushing Ukraine to war. America, as has been repeatedly written, pursues several goals. In a global sense, this is an element of the Cold War, designed to: 1) sharply increase pressure on the "European front" on Russia, 2) rally European allies around the United States because of the imaginary Russian threat, 3) show the world that America is still capable of administering destiny in Europe, to be an active participant in European affairs and a defender of the countries that have made a cordon sanitaire around Russia. In a local sense, the United States seeks to cut off Europe from Russian gas in order to become the main supplier of blue fuel and sow military chaos in the region. Instability is the dark energy through which the United States aggressively intervenes in the affairs of countries that are thousands of kilometers from their borders.
The United States is rapidly losing moralepolitical the authority of the world arbitrator, and due to the artificial escalation of tension, they are trying to return it. Biden has already twice addressed the nation about Ukraine, even addressed the Russians directly, that is, he is trying with all his might to focus on the role of the United States in Europe. The pro-American press in Europe convinces the townsfolk that without a powerful overseas superpower, the Europeans will not be able to cope with Putin's heavily armed hordes.
Erdogan has far-reaching plans to form a new Ottoman Empire. Many Turkic peoples live in Russia, so a clash with Turkey's imperialist interests is inevitable. That is why Turkey backstage supports Ukraine and actively supplies UAVs with drones. There is no doubt that Erdogan, no less than Biden, hopes for the most protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine with the maximum weakening of the northern neighbor.
There are no other political forces in the world interested in provoking a military conflict. The rest will only try to extract some co-benefits from a situation that they do not control.
The leadership of Ukraine is clearly aware that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to cope with either the LDNR army, or even more so with the Russian armed forces, but is under the most severe pressure from their Washington patrons. Zelensky, under the hype of the conflict, is begging the West for money and weapons, trying to find benefits for the oligarchic clan he serves. In addition, Zelensky is trying to play the nationalist card, suppress any opposition, “rally the nation” in front of the imaginary threat of occupation, and consolidate power in his hands. It has long been walking on the thin ice of a coup d'état, preparing the ground for the complete usurpation of the state.
Zelensky is likely planning to provoke a more or less large-scale clash with the LDNR, subsequently announcing the repulsion of the Russian threat, which, he believes, will open the door to life-giving American and European handouts.
The Ukrainian people, of course, will not derive any benefits from the growing conflict. On the contrary, the authorities of Ukraine will finally untie their hands in further terrorizing the population with oppression, exploitation and violation of all rights under the sauce of a state of emergency.
The situation is approximately the same for other pro-American puppet regimes in Europe. The Baltic states and Poland, under the “growing Russian threat,” will beg for dollars and euros, strengthen their police states, and suppress any opposition.
The information assertiveness of Western leaders about the "Russian threat" hints opaquely that the propaganda of a European war is intended, among other things, to shift the attention of Western inhabitants from numerous internal problems. Economic the crisis, pandemic, protests, conflicts and contradictions that are tearing apart Western countries are relegated to the background in the information field. Everywhere there is one ill-fated Ukraine, the existence of which until 2014 the townsfolk did not even suspect.
The destruction of the "Minsk" configuration
The inflating of the military conflict by the United States is a logical outcome of the Minsk agreements initiated by France. Three "great powers" - France, Germany, Russia - agreed on the outcome of the civil war in Ukraine based on their interests. It was important for France and Germany to show that they are capable of solving European issues on their own, without the United States, Russia counted on the bankruptcy of the Maidan government of Ukraine and the integration of Donbass into its structure, thereby smoothing out the conflict with the West over Crimea. Nobody took into account the real state of affairs, did not take into account the will of the people of Donbass, as well as the control of the Ukrainian authorities by Washington. As a result, a stalemate developed, with which the Normandy Format participants were quite satisfied. However, at the same time, not only the people of Donetsk were not in the mood to recognize the results of the civil war enshrined in the agreements, but America also got the opportunity for political maneuver to aggravate the conflict.
The main reasons for the failure of the Ukrainian side to comply with the Minsk agreements were in North America. Another thing is that even if we imagine that Ukraine would carry out all the envisaged measures in strict accordance with the agreements, it is difficult to imagine how the people of Donbass, having realized their right to self-determination with weapons in their hands, would refuse the gains of the civil war. The language problem, the fascist policy of the Maidan were only an excuse for an armed struggle for independence and the desire to become part of Russia.
In this sense, from a cynical point of view, the LDNR conflict is beneficial, because it buries the Minsk agreements and brings the republics closer to Russia's recognition of their independence and to the prospect of further integration into Russia. The blood that has been shed and is being shed on the land of Donbass must receive some kind of historical justification, have some kind of historical result. The special status of Donbass within Ukraine is not an outcome for which such a high price is paid.
European countries, on the one hand, are dancing to the tune of the United States about the Russian threat, on the other hand, they are puffing up somehow to calm the conflict and play an important role in the situation. Macron rides now to Moscow, then to Kiev as a peacekeeper, cuts off the phones of presidents and prime ministers of all countries in the region. Europe is contradictory - it is trying to get out from under the American heel, but does not have the strength and influence to play an independent role. The collapse of "Minsk" and the helplessness of the "Normandy format" is a vivid example of this. The prospect of renunciation of Russian gas scares Europe, but pro-American agents of influence still hold commanding heights in the political circles of France and Germany. How and when this contradiction will be resolved, one can only guess.
China reacted with restraint to the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the Donbass. In the West, they like to emphasize that the Chinese authorities have repeatedly stated that they respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, that China abstained in two votes in the UN Security Council in March 2014 “on condemning the annexation of Crimea” and “non-recognition of the referendum on Crimea becoming part of Russia”. But, firstly, Russia also respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine when it comes to Donbass, and secondly, when journalists ask Chinese officials about the recognition of Crimea, they answer something like this:
“We have no right to judge who owns Crimea, since Russia and Ukraine are intertwined very strongly. The fate and history of these countries is clear only to them alone, ”former Minister of Science and Technology PRC and member of the National People's Congress.
Moreover, China is actively investing in Crimea and condemns Western pressure on Russia on this issue.
The annexation of Crimea to Russia and the prospect of annexation of the Donbass to Russia morally and politically facilitate the informational background of the return of Taiwan to the PRC. Xi Jinping clearly plans and prepares to resolve the issue of the final "reunification of China", not excluding military means. China is clearly preparing for a war over Taiwan, and it would benefit from someone preparing the political ground in the international arena for such a scenario.
Belarus also declares itself as an active participant in the events. Having recovered from the attempted coup d'état during the White Maidan, Lukashenka came under strong pressure from Russia, demanding more active integration of the two countries. The Belarusian authorities consider the union state on Russia's terms as the liquidation of their independence. Lukashenka does not want to turn Belarus into the Belgorod region and resists the introduction of the ruble as the single currency of the two countries. However, he soberly assesses the objective limits of the sovereignty of his small country, therefore he frees up space for himself to actively support Russia on the issue of Donbass.
Belarus occupies an important strategic position in the event of a military conflict and provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the southern border of Belarus along the coast of the Dnieper to Kiev, only a hundred kilometers. Lukashenka actively uses this to justify his unwillingness to integrate on Russian terms later.
Formation of the anti-American front
China is in no hurry to unite countries dissatisfied with US hegemony into some kind of bloc in the format of a new cold war. Therefore, the initiative has moved "on the ground." Iran, under the new president Raisi, is thinking about joining the CSTO, Cuba has declared firm support in connection with “the US unleashing propaganda hysteria against Russia”, Venezuela, according to our ambassador, is ready to fight the US on the side of Russia. So the conflict in Donbas can serve as a means of rallying anti-American countries around Russia. Or at least become a symbol of collective opposition to American hegemony.
Russia is least interested in the conflict in Donbass. The Russian authorities are placed in an extremely disadvantageous position and are forced to prepare for a military provocation so that it does not develop into major clashes with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, there are some positives to be found in every situation.
So, President Putin as a person has one property that can play a positive role in the scenario being played out. At some point in his development as a statesman, he began to view himself through the prism of the historical role he plays. This is an important quality of a great politician, which many lack. What will be written about you in the history books? Will you become a disgrace to the country or a passing figure? Such questions should be asked by every person on whose decisions the destinies of millions depend. Putin has learned to set them for himself, therefore, despite all his shortcomings and the shortcomings of the existing socio-political system, there is a certain charge of wisdom in Russia's position. To get out of this conflict saving face and without national humiliation, it will be necessary to mobilize this statesmanship. At least we can say that the Russian government will do a lot to prevent a bloodbath in the Donbass. And this is already worth a lot.
Paradoxically, the Russian people stand to gain from further severing economic and political ties with the West. Sanctions become the reason for the growth of our production, make the entrepreneurs who flooded the country think not only about profit, but also about providing the country with the necessary products. The West's stroking of our oligarchy and top officials against wool gives hope that capital will stop flowing out of the country, people's wealth will be spent on the senseless buying of yachts and houses in London. Of course, this will not solve the fundamental problems of the liberal economic system that we have built, but at least it will cool down the pro-Western orientation of the “elite”.