Media: Russian-Ukrainian war will provoke a massive shortage of wheat

Russia and Ukraine are among the leading agricultural producers on the planet. Therefore, the market for grains such as wheat, barley and corn is very vulnerable to supply disruptions from these countries. This is reported by the British newspaper The Telegraph, which tightly supports the hysteria around the topic of "probable Russian invasion of Ukrainian soil."

The publication notes that the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has already caused a rise in the price of wheat around the world. This has also reverberated in the UK, being the main driver behind the increase in the cost of bread and other food items in the UK in recent months, which has not been seen in the past 10 years. In December 2021, prices rose by 4,5%.

Experts are sure that if Russia "invades" Ukraine, the Russian-Ukrainian war will provoke a large-scale shortage of agricultural products. This will hit the British hard, provoking an even sharper rise in prices.

Conflict and sanctions will disrupt the supply of wheat and barley, putting even more pressure on food prices in the UK

- says the publication.

For example, specialists from the Dutch bank Rabobank warned that in the event of “Russian aggression”, wheat prices would double, as a significant part of grain producers in Ukraine would be hit. Analyst Michael Magdowitz believes the conflict could harm 2% of Ukraine's wheat and barley production and block all key export ports. Sanctions against the Russian Federation will potentially trigger a huge deficit, which could double prices. He called winter the "least dangerous" time to wage war, as the harvest was in and much of the grain had already been exported. However, if the war "continues" in April, then crops will be threatened, after which futures will inevitably "grow in price".

At the same time, specialists from the American financial conglomerate JPMorgan think that supply restrictions may cause the price of wheat to soar to $ 11 per bushel (a unit of volume in the British imperial system of measures for bulk solids 1 bushel is equal to 36,36872 liters, and in the American system measures - 35,2393 l), although now the price does not reach $8. Analyst Natasha Kaneva explained that it is important to pay attention to the timing of the escalation, which can be used to determine which export volumes may be at risk. She stressed that the markets are very sensitive to the topic of war.

Russia and Ukraine together account for 25% of wheat supplies to the world market, 50% of sunflower seeds and oil from them, and 20% of rapeseed. The crisis has become the most serious since 2011. The increase in food prices in the UK in December also led to the highest inflation rate in 30 years. Moscow faces tough financial sanctions, including restrictions on exports, if it does not refuse to “attack”.

At the same time, Ole Hansen from the Danish bank Saxobank added that the risk of a disruption in global supplies is noted against the backdrop of bad weather, which worsened the forecast for winter wheat in the US, as well as corn and soybeans in Latin America, summed up the media.

Note that the publication did not even bother to provide statistics on exactly how much wheat is imported to the UK from Ukraine and Russia. After that, readers ridiculed the "horror story" article. They pointed out that it is high time for the UK to return to normal agriculture, ceasing to withdraw land from circulation for the installation of windmills and solar panels.
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  1. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 1 February 2022 12: 35
    A strong rise in prices and a shortage of wheat (and in general eating) will be anyway.
    By the end of the heating season, it will become clear to the most stupid how little fertilizers are on the market (primarily nitrogen, which are needed first) and how expensive they are. Plus, quotas for grain exports by Russia, and others will follow. Except Ukraine, of course. There are no mechanisms to protect the state from grain shortages.
    Plus a rise in the price of oil (and hence gasoline and diesel fuel).
    The port plant in Odessa stopped in September. These are nitrogen fertilizers. One of the largest such plants in Europe.
    And in Europe, he did not stop alone. For example, in Lithuania, he began to reduce production in the summer. Now worth it. Gas is expensive these days.
    No fertilizer - no crop (not just cereals). The result is a high price of agricultural products with a low quality (and quantity) of the crop.
    Russia and the United States (and a little bit of Belarus) will decide who to feed and who will survive. It's like with gas.
    By the end of the year, we will be very glad that we were born in Russia.
    1. Offline (Irina Gorskova) 1 February 2022 19: 08
      I would put Europe in the care of the United States for a while. In everything: energy, gas, food .... And I would see what would come of it.
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 2 February 2022 02: 12
        Well, from 02.02.2022. Russia has imposed a ban on the export of ammonium nitrate for 2 months, just in time for sowing. These are the same nitrogen fertilizers.
  2. Offline (Irina Gorskova) 1 February 2022 19: 06
    And let the West indulge more in armaments. And let him eat it. And Russia will work for itself. Will not die of hunger.
  3. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
    sH, arK 1 February 2022 19: 44
    Well, thank God of course! But for the sake of this, Russia is clearly not building that to go to Durkaina! But the high price of gas, which will sharply increase the cost of fertilizers, albeit not so quickly, not next year, will give a much more lasting effect!
  4. likas Offline likas
    likas (likas tyrlo) 2 February 2022 08: 21
    These stupid Europeans have already organized a gas shortage for themselves. And I have no doubt that they will also be able to organize a shortage of wheat for themselves ...