American experts noted the peculiarity of the current deployment of troops in Russia


Even if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to launch an “invasion” of Ukraine, it is far from clear whether he would prefer a large-scale ground “offensive” to “occupy” all the major cities from the very beginning, or limit himself to a march on Kiev, writes the American newspaper The Washington Post. referring to the opinions of experts.


The Ukrainian air defense system is extremely weak, so Russian aviation can easily secure air supremacy, which will allow almost unhindered air strikes not only on the capital, but throughout the country. This circumstance may force Kiev to capitulate to Moscow even before the tanks cross the Ukrainian border.

Russia has left itself many flexible military options and can carry out a wide range of actions. For example, it can gradually build up pressure, starting with cyberattacks, increasing tension on the line of contact (in Donbas - ed.), up to a large-scale operation using air, missile and ground attacks.

- thinks Dara Massicot, senior researcher at Rand Corp..

According to Massicot, the Russian Federation can reduce its combat vulnerability and minimize losses by launching airstrikes with precision-guided munitions and long-range artillery, suppressing Ukrainian defenses from afar, and having a serious multifactorial impact on Ukraine as a whole.

The military and other infrastructure created by Russia along the border with Ukraine allows the Russians to carry out any actions on Ukrainian territory, even without an invasion. At the same time, the threat of a full-scale war will remain. Some analysts argue that Moscow does not intend to attack, but deliberately escalates the situation so that Washington agrees to the main demand of the Russian Federation - to exclude the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.

Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitry Trenin said that for Moscow the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is like the Caribbean crisis of 1962 "on steroids" because of the risk of future missile deployment there. Moreover, he categorically rejected the possibility of a "Russian invasion."

All options for an “invasion” (major, minor, and others) are part of Western fears and fantasies and have nothing to do with reality and thinking in the Kremlin or the plans of the Russian General Staff. The idea of ​​Russia's actions, in my opinion, is not to wage war against Ukraine, but to use a show of military force to put the US at the negotiating table to discuss security issues in Europe, including those related to Ukraine

Trenin is sure.

Military analyst Rob Lee from the department of military studies at King's College London thinks that a Russian military operation against Ukraine is more likely.

They transferred units from all military districts, including the Northern Fleet, to Ukraine. They sent to Belarus even the forces and means deployed near North Korea in the East Military District. They do a lot of things that are not standard. What they are doing is not like what they have done before, so the situation is unpredictable. It's unprecedented

Lee explained.

According to Lee, Moscow wants to prevent Ukraine from becoming a threat, so its most likely approach is a devastating attack to destroy the Ukrainian army and then quickly force President Volodymyr Zelensky to go along with the Kremlin's demands. At the same time, it is not at all necessary for the Russian Federation to “occupy” the territory of Ukraine. This can be achieved through a large-scale attack from the air.

The Russian Federation could also "capture" a small piece of territory of strategic importance. The section between the Black and Azov Seas and the Dnieper River to provide overland communication and water supplies to the Crimea.

Andrew S. Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington clarified that, in addition to the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO, the goals of the Russian Federation may also include replacing the existing Ukrainian regime with a more loyal government. The "shock and awe" air campaign could be "a way for Russia to achieve multiple goals without getting involved in a costly indefinite occupation," the media concluded.
  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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  1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 23 January 2022 12: 22
    +7
    if we take it, then the entire territory, well, except for the Galician region, that itself will choke in its feces. Otherwise, the rest will be even worse than the current outskirts, but my purely personal opinion, the Kremlin does not want to enter the outskirts, Russia will not be able to economically digest this walk field
    1. Mikhail L. Offline Mikhail L.
      Mikhail L. 23 January 2022 14: 35
      -1
      You are not far from the truth: you can ... win the war, but lose the world!
      There are examples of this...
    2. S WITH Offline S WITH
      S WITH (N S) 24 January 2022 23: 45
      -2
      this is Russian land and 70-80% of Russians live there, the percentage of Russophobic Semitic ear molds is scanty, economically the region can feed itself, as it was in the USSR
  2. alexneg13 Offline alexneg13
    alexneg13 (Alexander) 23 January 2022 17: 09
    -1
    Oh, how the West persuades Russia: - "Well, occupy Ukraine!" And so stubbornly, but Russia to them: - "Figures. Deal with these poop yourself." They messed up, and then clean up after them. No, no, no ... You pooped yourself and eat.
  3. Sergofan Offline Sergofan
    Sergofan (sergey Pupkin) 23 January 2022 17: 28
    +1
    Uh-huh, everyone in the General Staff is just bad))) Why should this territory be conquered? Just crush the crumbs and it will fall on its own. Israel will tell
    1. Vladimir Daetoya (Vladimir Daetoya) 23 January 2022 20: 17
      0
      Yes, this should be the conversation with the Teutonic henchmen:
      Well, have you built it? And now please step aside, we need to level a little here.
  4. Evgeny Pugonin (Evgeny Pugonin) 24 January 2022 10: 07
    0
    There is an axiom - the brothers Slavs should not destroy each other. Adequate people do not consider all Ukrainians Bandera, perhaps provocateurs. But there will still be a local war, as the puppeteers will provoke an attack on the DPR and LPR. Everything has gone too far, and the Americans need instability in Europe like air to strengthen the dollar. And the attack on the DNR and LNR is a war. In this case, no one will forgive Russia for inaction.
    1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 24 January 2022 11: 35
      0
      Adequate people have long understood that the majority of the so-called. Ukrainians against Russia. Anyway. To explain to you why or why this is so, apparently it makes no sense. Everything else you said is nonsense. Sorry.
  5. Edvid Offline Edvid
    Edvid 24 January 2022 12: 15
    0
    The Kremlin has a fundamental right to drive NATO to its 1997 borders.
    This is an act of the Russia-NATO agreement dated May 27, 1997: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1902022