Until the Russian group reaches half a million, a strategic operation against Ukraine is impossible


Russia is satisfied with the dialogue that has begun with the West, but is forcing events and increasing tension, wanting to make concessions “here and now,” the NEZYGAR Telegram channel reports its vision and analysis of the geopolitical situation on January 20.


With its “ultimatum”, or rather, a comprehensive and extremely tough public position, the Russian Federation achieved negotiations that began on several platforms (Russia-USA, Russia-NATO, OSCE, Russia-Germany). Key Russian-American negotiations between Yuri Ushakov and Jake Sullivan are being prepared, in which other functionaries from both sides will also take part.

Moscow proceeds from the fact that it (in the form of the USSR and the Russian Federation) has already made many concessions, from the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact to the abandonment of the Novorossiya project in 2014. Now the West must give way - in the form of a kind of "Finlandization" of Ukraine, and along with Georgia.

This is not an attempt to create a “new Yalta”, but a desire to provide security guarantees for Russia, and in a world where it has no allies. Agreements with the Americans regarding the refusal to deploy missiles, the curtailment of exercises and the fulfillment of other requirements will be received positively by Russian society. At the same time, there will also be disappointed Russians - “how is it that they didn’t take Kiev”, but they will be a clear minority.

The intensification of confrontation has a very negative impact on both Russian society and the Ukrainian and European agendas. But experts are extremely skeptical about the possibility of starting a war.

Until the Russian group "near Ukraine" reaches a size measured by at least half a million military personnel, strategic operations against Ukraine with the aim of occupying its large territories are impossible.

experts are sure.

The analysis indicates that the concerns and fears of Russians associated with the possibility of Russia's involvement in various conflicts are increasingly penetrating into the public consciousness. Most Russians still believe that there will be no military conflict, but the proportion of those who think otherwise is gradually growing.

Sociologists specify that the topic of military confrontation has been intensively focusing public attention in recent weeks and has somewhat pushed back the COVID-19 issue, despite the spread of the coronavirus. At the same time, Russian society has largely lost interest in what is happening around Ukraine, and the Ukrainian leadership is not considered as a subject of the global policy. In addition, the results of monitoring people's opinions show the homogeneity of public consciousness and the predominance of thoughts in it that it is the collective West that is artificially provoking the current situation of geopolitical confrontation.
  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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  1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 20 January 2022 15: 21
    +4
    As an expert on strategic operations, I am rapidly declaring that at least 5,3 million military personnel are needed to occupy large regions of Ukraine. And at least 1,7 million more for the occupation of small regions of Ukraine. And to occupy Odessa, at least 780 Jews in camouflage and helmets will be required.
  2. Assault Offline Assault
    Assault (Assault) 20 January 2022 15: 26
    +6
    What experts? Where do they get these numbers from?
    For 10 years, the USSR held Afghanistan with 30 million people and a complex landscape with a grouping of 100 thousand people. and further could if wanted ...
    The feeling that all the articles here are written by the same person, for fun.
    1. Sergej1972 Offline Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 (Sergei) 22 January 2022 11: 27
      0
      A formal quibble on my part. It is now in Afghanistan 32 million people. In 1979-1989 the country's population was much smaller.
  3. viktortarianik Offline viktortarianik
    viktortarianik (Victor) 20 January 2022 15: 43
    +2
    Bullshit
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 20 January 2022 16: 04
    -3
    operation against Ukraine is impossible

    I beg you, do not bring a blizzard. I talked with these Kharkiv residents. They claimed that they had set themselves on fire in Odessa, that Donbass was shelling itself, and that Russia was an occupier. As soon as I "ran over" them, all their steepness-truth disappeared somewhere. Of course, there are stoned, Bandera, but they will not openly fight. To hit them in the back, women, children - that's their "horse" - unarmed, who cannot give change. Russia has only to start, let it start with the forces of the LDNR, and all of Ukraine will be at the feet of Russia !!! All their bravado is show off. Ukraine is a tasty morsel and it must be taken by any means!!!
    1. Tourist Offline Tourist
      Tourist (tourist) 20 January 2022 16: 38
      -7
      Afghan, Chechen, ... do you want the collapse of the country?
    2. monah Offline monah
      monah (Alexander) 21 January 2022 13: 22
      +1
      Quote: steel maker
      operation against Ukraine is impossible

      I beg you, do not bring a blizzard. I talked with these Kharkiv residents. They claimed that they had set themselves on fire in Odessa, that Donbass was shelling itself, and that Russia was an occupier. As soon as I "ran over" them, all their steepness-truth disappeared somewhere. Of course, there are stoned, Bandera, but they will not openly fight. To hit them in the back, women, children - that's their "horse" - unarmed, who cannot give change. Russia has only to start, even if for a start by the forces of the LDNR, and all of Ukraine will be at the feet of Russia !!! All their bravado is show off. Ukraine is a tasty morsel and it must be taken by any means!!! Forgive me, dear, but you are not communicating with those Kharkiv residents. Are your interlocutors probably from the porch of Karazin University? You cut to the KhTZ area or to Ivanovka, there they will give you explanations.
    3. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 24 January 2022 12: 26
      -1
      Continue subversive work with the enemy population.
  5. Vladimir Golubenko (Vladimir Golubenko) 20 January 2022 16: 43
    +2
    Rave! These "experts" apparently did not even serve in the army. And if they served, then in the Ukrainian.
  6. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 20 January 2022 18: 21
    +1
    What an occupation ... There are Kovpakov crushed by fascists and other perverts half of Ukraine ... There will be enough for all the grown-up fans of the murderers of Odessa in abundance ... Let's help, bros ... Occupation ...
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 20 January 2022 18: 46
      +2
      Article without author.
      The goal is to drive two thoughts into the mind of readers: Russia is preparing to occupy Ukraine and that this is impossible.
      Who ordered the article to be deciphered?
  7. silviu Offline silviu
    silviu (Silviu) 21 January 2022 14: 07
    0
    without a full-scale military confrontation, the United States and its allies will not make any concessions and will put pressure by any means))
  8. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 21 January 2022 17: 30
    +1
    This won't be enough. Must be half a million and twenty something else, somebody. Perhaps field kitchens, or washing machines. Hitler said - as long as we strengthen ourselves, the enemy will also strengthen and burn out.