Russia is building an anti-Chinese gas alliance in Central Asia


One of the most significant News 2022 in the field economics we can consider the resumption of construction of the TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India. The Taliban (a terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation), which came to power in Afghanistan, confirmed Kabul's interest in this energy project and guaranteed its assistance and security. On closer examination, it turns out that a real anti-Chinese alliance has formed in the region, and Russia plays an important role in it. What gives us reason to believe so?


According to the project, the main pipeline TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) has a length of 1735 kilometers and should pass from Turkmenistan through the territory of Afghanistan and Pakistan to India, which is considered one of the most promising gas markets. The capacity of the gas pipeline is 33 billion cubic meters per year, and the cost is from 8 to 10 billion dollars. In 2018, the Executive Director of the consortium TAPI Pipeline Company Ltd. Mukhammedmurad Amanov said that its cost could even drop to $7 billion. (Unprecedented for our country case!).

The project was launched in 2015 on the territory of Turkmenistan, which is extremely interested in finding new markets for its hydrocarbons, and in 2018, the symbolic laying of the "first stone" in Afghanistan took place. Afghanistan, which accounts for 774 kilometers of the route of this gas transport corridor, has always been the “weakest link”. And then all these memorable geopolitical upheavals began, associated with the rapid withdrawal of American troops and the rise to power of the Taliban militants (a terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation). fighting and политическая instability is not the best conditions for multibillion-dollar investments. The big problem is that the Taliban is still considered a banned extremist organization and has not yet been officially recognized as the legitimate government in Afghanistan.

However, the actual new authorities of the country gave their go-ahead for this energy project:

Works on power supply, TAPI project and railway expansion will be opened and started in March 2022.

In addition to resuming the construction of the gas pipeline, a power line from Turkmenistan to Pakistan will be laid, as well as an expansion of the existing railway network from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. These projects are of great interest to all countries of the region. Kabul will receive gas for its own needs and transit revenues, as well as new jobs. Islamabad and New Delhi are diversifying their gas sources. Ashgabat will be able to enter new markets with its gas, which will give it the opportunity to speak in a new way with its still uncontested partners, China and Russia. Recall that since the Soviet times, Gazprom has been buying Turkmen gas at a low price and making good money on its resale to Europe. Beijing is also actively using its position, having won extremely favorable conditions for the purchase of “blue fuel” from Ashgabat.

This begs the question, so why does Russia not only not interfere, but also welcomes in every possible way and actively participates in the construction of an alternative gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India?

Thus, the Russian group ChTPZ announced in 2018 the signing of a contract for the supply of more than 150 thousand tons of pipes with a diameter of 1420 mm to the State Concern "Turkmengas" for the construction of TAPI on the territory of this Central Asian republic. At the same time, Pakistan is planning to build a new North-South pipeline, which was later renamed the Pakistan Stream. It is to connect the southern port of Karachi and the northern industrial city of Lahore with a 1,1-kilometer long pipe. The design capacity is 12,4 - 16 billion cubic meters of gas per year. First, regasified LNG will be pumped through the Pakistan Stream, and then it will become part of TAPI. Russia participates in this project as a contractor and operator. Initially, it was planned that our share in Pakistani Stream would be 85%, and the management period would be 25 years, but due to the Western sanctions regime, the share of the Russian side decreased to 26%.

So, why did Moscow give its green light to TAPI? A large construction contract and a share in Pakistani Stream are, of course, nice bonuses. But at the same time, Russia and China will lose their exclusive status as non-alternative buyers of Turkmen gas, on which Gazprom makes quite good money. Perhaps the answer lies precisely in the need to weaken China's position.

Beijing skillfully twists the arms not only of Ashgabat, but also of Moscow, since it can get even cheaper than Russian gas from Turkmenistan. This has already made itself felt at the conclusion of the agreement on the "Power of Siberia". Now the Power of Siberia-2 is next in line. As soon as Turkmenistan has an alternative market to China, its negotiating position will change in the direction of toughening. The price of gas will begin to rise for both Russia and China, but, apparently, Gazprom is ready to lose on this so as not to sell too cheap when signing an agreement with the Chinese on the Power of Siberia-2.

It is difficult to find any other common sense in this.
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  1. Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 January 2022 15: 28
    0
    The article is quite balanced, and the definition of "anti-Chinese" sounds like a clear dissonance, although it draws attention to it
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 1 February 2022 16: 09
      +1
      Indeed, dissonance. This project, rather, is not anti-Chinese, but anti-European. Gas exports in the opposite direction are being pushed by the United States, which advocates a bridge between the gas transportation systems of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
      But there is one caveat. The Turkmens do not want contracts requiring deliveries "to the threshold" - a specific hub in Europe. They sold gas at the border - and then they themselves. Europeans, after the complaisance of Gazprom, are terribly infuriated. Like, we need gas, and all the costs of transportation, contracts with many pipe owners are the responsibility of the seller. However, Turkmenistan does not have so many lawyers.
      It is easier for Turkmens to go to India and Pakistan. Their pipe to the border. Then - the Indo-Pakistani pipe. And the Asians are quite happy with the purchase of gas on the border of Afghanistan.
  2. TAPI will not only rein in the Chinese, but also frustrate the Turkish tricks of transferring Turkmen gas in Europe to Russia's competition.
  3. gorskova.ir Offline gorskova.ir
    gorskova.ir (Irina Gorskova) 18 January 2022 17: 18
    0
    Yes Yes. When you need to fulfill the order of "gradanaholme" to suppress a competitor, or to quarrel, then obedient media figures are right there. And Gazprom simply does what is necessary for itself. Well, the country falls. Still, 51% of the state.
  4. Rusa Offline Rusa
    Rusa 18 January 2022 17: 19
    +1
    It is difficult to find any other common sense in this.

    Maybe the point is that gas from Turkmenistan and Iran goes to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and not to Europe.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 January 2022 12: 11
      0
      Not to Europe and not to China. Also the development of India as opposed to China.
      1. Rusa Offline Rusa
        Rusa 19 January 2022 12: 23
        0
        And the existing gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China, as opposed to whom?
        According to your other publication, "The Power of Siberia-2" will also not benefit Europe.
        Afghanistan, Pakistan and India need pipeline gas no less than the EU.
  5. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 18 January 2022 18: 51
    0
    Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project
    The project was registered in November 2014, construction began in December 2015.
    Project participants: Turkmengas (85%), Afghan Gas Enterprise (5%), Pakistani Inter State Gas Systems (5%) and Indian GAIL (5%) The gas pipeline should pass through the territory of 4 of these countries.
    https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/turkmenistan-afghanistan-pakistan-india-tapi-gas-pipeline-project/


    For 30 years, the project was lobbied by the United States, most of which controlled (relatively) the territory of Afghanistan. Look, they themselves say Biden has nothing to do with it, otherwise the United States has really been supporting the project for 30 years.

    Biden, as president, was clearly not in favor of the TAPI pipeline. The US government has supported this idea for three decades., but it does not have an impact on the final construction of the pipeline, as it did with Keystone. He did not deposit any funds and is not a party to the transaction. The project has nothing to do with Keystone.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-pipeline-taliban-idUSL1N2LM201

    And they are talking with the Taliban on this project, they tried to negotiate
    https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/us-taliban-talks-and-the-fate-of-tapi-pipeline-49354/

    Tellingly, I have never heard China press Pakistan on this issue. Or is he pro-Russian and doing it to spite China? Russia's interest in the project is rather doubtful, the author himself writes that the project is as anti-Chinese as it is anti-Russian.

    Ashgabat will be able to enter new markets with its gas, which will give it the opportunity to speak in a new way with its still uncontested partners, China and Russia.

    What is the Russian participation, what is the Byzantine treachery of the evil Muscovites? What have they done so anti-Chinese?

    Thus, the Russian group ChTPZ announced in 2018 the signing of a contract for the supply of more than 150 thousand tons of pipes with a diameter of 1420 mm to the State Concern "Turkmengas" for the construction of TAPI on the territory of this Central Asian republic.

    Is the theory of "insidious Russia plotting behind the back of a Chinese ally" sucked out of this finger? belay
    Is Russia a pipe monopoly? Of course, it is not possible to find an alternative, and if Russia refuses to sell, to the Khan's project?

    And yes

    So, why did Moscow give its green light to TAPI?

    Can you tell me when she did it? Who even asked permission?
    In general, the topic of Petrov and Bashirov has not been disclosed, and of course Putin personally, who, by definition, is guilty of everything.
    I recommend getting vaccinated, it looks like the agents of the State Department bit you, it is possible that the cutie Psaki herself yes
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 January 2022 22: 37
    -1
    Yes. Pe-re-mo-ha ....)))
    This gas pipeline has been announced for a long time. Naturally, because Asia produces gas wherever it can ...
    And here, for the sake of money, even eternal opponents - India and Pakistan came together ....

    And Russia ... well, they haven’t written yet that we again terribly defeated Omerika ....
    (and Pakistan will declare that it was he who overcame Omerik, while Russia and China were on the hook)

    In general, money does not smell, and the rest is from conspiracy theorists ...
  7. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
    Astronaut (San Sanych) 19 January 2022 02: 03
    +1
    What a wild imagination the author has.
    Turkmenistan produces about 60 bcm, 5,5 bcm of which is bought by Gazprom (less than 3%), and the rest goes to China.
    The TAPI project has been suspended until the situation in Afghanistan normalizes, and against the backdrop of ongoing skirmishes there, it is not clear when it will continue.
  8. i232323b Offline i232323b
    i232323b (Igor) 19 January 2022 10: 45
    0
    What if the Taliban again "leave" (or leave) from power in Afghanistan?
    1. Vasyl K. Offline Vasyl K.
      Vasyl K. (Vasil K.) 20 January 2022 11: 09
      0
      will NOT leave! The Taliban are Pashtuns, well, like Russians in Russia. So the Pashtuns in Pakistan too ... Unification with Pakistan is a probable forecast!
  9. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 January 2022 11: 20
    0
    Quote: Astronaut
    What a wild imagination the author has.
    Turkmenistan produces about 60 bcm, 5,5 bcm of which is bought by Gazprom (less than 3%), and the rest goes to China.

    So what is the contradiction?
  10. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 January 2022 12: 15
    0
    Quote: 123
    What is the Russian participation, what is the Byzantine treachery of the evil Muscovites? What have they done so anti-Chinese?

    Thus, the Russian group ChTPZ announced in 2018 the signing of a contract for the supply of more than 150 thousand tons of pipes with a diameter of 1420 mm to the State Concern "Turkmengas" for the construction of TAPI on the territory of this Central Asian republic.

    Is the theory of "insidious Russia plotting behind the back of a Chinese ally" sucked out of this finger?
    Is Russia a pipe monopoly? Of course, it is not possible to find an alternative, and if Russia refuses to sell, to the Khan's project?

    And yes

    So, why did Moscow give its green light to TAPI?

    Can you tell me when she did it? Who even asked permission?
    In general, the topic of Petrov and Bashirov has not been disclosed, and of course Putin personally, who, by definition, is guilty of everything.
    I recommend getting vaccinated, it looks like the agents of the State Department bit you, it is possible that the cutie Psaki herself

    Briefly summarized here:
    https://neftegaz.ru/news/partnership/689508-s-lavrov-rossiya-zainteresovana-v-uchastii-v-stroitelstve-gazoprovoda-tapi/
  11. Vasyl K. Offline Vasyl K.
    Vasyl K. (Vasil K.) 20 January 2022 11: 04
    +1
    Not anti-Chinese, but economically justified, where the manufacturer will have more income. Pipes with gas bypassing Ukraine are not anti-Ukrainian, but an economic response to political blackmail. This is the very market that decides!
  12. dunce123 Offline dunce123
    dunce123 (Charlie) 24 January 2022 14: 31
    0
    capitalists
  13. netopyr Offline netopyr
    netopyr (netopyr) 26 January 2022 16: 39
    0
    Funny! Why anti-Chinese? Who is not with China is against it? Why is the approach in the article American? Is such a primitive approach worthy of Russia? Maybe it is worth considering the Chinese approach in relation to Russia? What kind of humiliation is Russia here?
  14. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 31 January 2022 12: 48
    0
    Who will finance this project, section by section, especially the Afghan one?
  15. Traktorbekov Urulu (Maksim) 2 February 2022 09: 01
    0
    Why "anti-Chinese"? After all, Russia didn’t sign up to do only what is beneficial to China and what is in China’s interests? And China, in its projects, follows its own interests first of all. Friendship is friendship, but tobacco is apart.