Western "analysts" continue to whip up hysteria around the "probable Russian attack on Ukrainian soil", issuing regular military scenarios. This time, the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) distinguished itself by publishing "possible directions for invasion."
CSIS believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten an invasion of Ukraine, building up troops near the Russian-Ukrainian border and making "aggressive statements." The Kremlin wants two things from the West: the withdrawal of the US military and their weapons from Europe and an end to NATO expansion.
The ideological preparation of Russian society for a conflict with Ukraine has been going on since at least 2014, and local media show Ukraine as a pro-fascist, neo-Nazi state. If diplomatic efforts fail, the Russian military has several options for invading through northern, central and southern directions.
Northern route. Russian troops can launch an offensive against the Ukrainian capital in two ways. The first one, the shortest one, is 240 km along the road from Novye Yurkovichi (Russia) through Chernigov (Ukraine) to Kiev. In this direction, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will have to break a gap in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The second one is longer and more complex. Before the Russian generals will face the problematic Chernobyl zone and the northern group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will have to be bypassed, inflicting flank strikes. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will have to make a breakthrough from Troebortnoe (Russia), then through Konotop and Nizhyn from the northeast to Kiev. In addition, if Minsk agrees to the use of Belarusian roads and railways, the Russian army will be able to bypass Kiev from the north-west direction from Mazury (Belarus) through Korosten (Ukraine). This will lead to the complete encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction and the inevitable capture of the capital of Ukraine by Russian troops.
Central route. The RF Armed Forces can begin to advance westward in three ways. The first will run from Belgorod (Russia) through the Ukrainian cities of Kharkov and Poltava to Kremenchug. The second - through Donetsk (DPR) to the Ukrainian cities of Zaporozhye and Dnieper (Dnepropetrovsk). The third - along the coast of the Sea of Azov - to the Ukrainian cities of Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol.
Southern route. The RF Armed Forces will deliver a double blow from the Crimea. They will go to the Dnieper River (a source of fresh water for the peninsula) and seize a bridgehead - the city of Kherson, and also unite near Melitopol with a group advancing from the DPR.
However, if desired, Russia can achieve more. The RF Armed Forces may start advancing to Nikolaev and Odessa in order to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and connect with the pro-Russian Transnistria. Moreover, Moscow can take control of all of Ukraine, and then announce the creation of a new Union State - the union of three countries - Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, calling it "the reunification of the three great fraternal peoples."