Disconnecting Russia from the system of international bank transfers SWIFT is a "super-sanction" that the West has been threatening the Kremlin with since 2014. According to the British magazine The Economist, economic influencing Moscow is considered the only instrument of response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because neither the United States nor NATO as a whole will fight for the interests of Kiev. However, the possible disconnection of the Russian banking system from SWIFT is not as simple as it might seem at first glance.
This measure is called the "mother of all sanctions" in the West. Thanks to SWIFT, 200 countries and more than 11 thousand banks around the planet conduct billions of transactions every day. In 2018, under pressure from the United States, Iran was cut off from international bank transfers. The world financial system has hardly felt the consequences of such a step. If Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, the West will inevitably feel the bitterness of ill-considered decisions.
SWIFT itself will be a big obstacle on the way to such a step. This community, headquartered in Belgium, once made a commitment to remain politically neutral. However, let's say that Washington still managed to achieve its goal, and the international payment system no longer works on the territory of the Russian Federation. What will be the consequences for Russia itself and for the West?
Disappointment will come almost immediately when it becomes clear that the Russian financial system has not collapsed and continues to work. Moscow has been intimidated by being cut off from SWIFT since 2014, and has had ample time to prepare. The country's central bank has developed the Financial Messaging System (FMS), which is a kind of analogue of SWIFT. Yes, it did not receive the same distribution in the world, but it is quite enough for the functioning of banks within the country, the British edition emphasizes.
At the same time, Moscow's many commercial partners will feel the consequences of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. For the European Union, the Russian Federation is in fifth place in terms of trade, and the actual volume of payment claims of European banks to their Russian counterparties is more than $ 50 billion. Add to this the EU's dependence on energy resources from Russia, which provides 35% of all the needs of the Old World.
The disconnection of Moscow from SWIFT will negatively affect the United States, or rather, its omnipotent dollar. The emergence of alternative payment systems in Europe and Asia, which will be necessary for trade with Russia, will dramatically weaken the influence of the American currency in the world. China will pose a particular threat to Washington, which will unequivocally regard the SWIFT blocking in Russia as a "dress rehearsal" for an economic war against itself. According to The Economist, Beijing's existing CIPS interbank transfer system will have every chance of becoming, if not a global replacement for SWIFT, then at least its dangerous competitor, not only in Russia, but also in the European Union.