The consequences of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT are described

December 26 2021 19

Disconnecting Russia from the system of international bank transfers SWIFT is a "super-sanction" that the West has been threatening the Kremlin with since 2014. According to the British magazine The Economist, economic influencing Moscow is considered the only instrument of response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because neither the United States nor NATO as a whole will fight for the interests of Kiev. However, the possible disconnection of the Russian banking system from SWIFT is not as simple as it might seem at first glance.

This measure is called the "mother of all sanctions" in the West. Thanks to SWIFT, 200 countries and more than 11 thousand banks around the planet conduct billions of transactions every day. In 2018, under pressure from the United States, Iran was cut off from international bank transfers. The world financial system has hardly felt the consequences of such a step. If Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, the West will inevitably feel the bitterness of ill-considered decisions.

SWIFT itself will be a big obstacle on the way to such a step. This community, headquartered in Belgium, once made a commitment to remain politically neutral. However, let's say that Washington still managed to achieve its goal, and the international payment system no longer works on the territory of the Russian Federation. What will be the consequences for Russia itself and for the West?

Disappointment will come almost immediately when it becomes clear that the Russian financial system has not collapsed and continues to work. Moscow has been intimidated by being cut off from SWIFT since 2014, and has had ample time to prepare. The country's central bank has developed the Financial Messaging System (FMS), which is a kind of analogue of SWIFT. Yes, it did not receive the same distribution in the world, but it is quite enough for the functioning of banks within the country, the British edition emphasizes.

At the same time, Moscow's many commercial partners will feel the consequences of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. For the European Union, the Russian Federation is in fifth place in terms of trade, and the actual volume of payment claims of European banks to their Russian counterparties is more than $ 50 billion. Add to this the EU's dependence on energy resources from Russia, which provides 35% of all the needs of the Old World.

The disconnection of Moscow from SWIFT will negatively affect the United States, or rather, its omnipotent dollar. The emergence of alternative payment systems in Europe and Asia, which will be necessary for trade with Russia, will dramatically weaken the influence of the American currency in the world. China will pose a particular threat to Washington, which will unequivocally regard the SWIFT blocking in Russia as a "dress rehearsal" for an economic war against itself. According to The Economist, Beijing's existing CIPS interbank transfer system will have every chance of becoming, if not a global replacement for SWIFT, then at least its dangerous competitor, not only in Russia, but also in the European Union.

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antibi0tikk

+7

26 December 2021 11: 51

Yes, you are quiet !!! Do not make noise, otherwise you will scare away! Let them turn it off.
This SWIFT is still a monopoly, because it was one of the first such systems. There are already alternatives for connecting. After disconnecting from SWIFT, you see, our SPFS will do better too!
1. boriz
  
  +8
  
  26 December 2021 12: 17
  
  So Putin and Xi in the last telephone conversation agreed to create a joint payment system. I don't think it will take them long.
  Just combine the ones that are already available. And then there is the BRICS payment system. A year ago, at the BRICS summit, they reported on its creation. It is already joint.
  Since Xi and Putin are talking about this, it means they will disconnect from SWIFT.
Jacques sekavar

-7

26 December 2021 12: 54

The disconnection of the Russian Federation from Swift will not affect the dollar in any way - the turnover is minimal, and settlements with the EU will have to be carried out in a roundabout way or transferred to other currencies. It is clear that the Sshasovites will try to block all possible paths, but this is not the worst thing either.
Worse if they freeze the accounts of residents, gold and foreign exchange reserves, the state debt - the largest holder of which they are, not to mention the EU and other state institutions dependent on the US and investment funds.
If it comes to this, “put out the light”. It may not reach cannibalism, but the cost of vegetable gardens will increase tenfold for sure.
1. gunnerminer
  
  -11
  
  26 December 2021 14: 06
  
  Technological isolation is more dangerous than financial one.
  1. S WITH
    
    +1
    
    26 December 2021 23: 51
    
    The West knows better what is more dangerous, well, you keep thinking what to advise the West
    1. gunnerminer
      
      -6
      
      27 December 2021 10: 05
      
      Financial isolation will hit the zamkadniki. Technological isolation will hit the state, the defense industry, the strike potential of the Russian Armed Forces. It is already beginning to affect. Judging by the failures of the state armament programs.
  2. Sergeyjluf
    
    0
    
    27 December 2021 07: 33
    
    You don't know the story well! Who in Russia invented the steam locomotive, the radio, etc. There is a Russian trace in all television systems! And the thief Penkovsky took the Pentium architecture to America ?!
    1. gunnerminer
      
      -4
      
      27 December 2021 10: 12
      
      They were invented, but they did not use the fruits of inventions for the benefit of the population. And now Danya Milokhin is dealing with inventions.
      1. SOF
        
        -1
        
        27 December 2021 12: 03
        
        ... yes, yes ... and we won't be able to produce Zircons ...
        
        gunnerminer
        
        -5
        
        27 December 2021 12: 11
        
        We cannot mass-produce the 3M22 missile in a regular manner. We haven’t accepted it for service. Testing has not been completed. And so there is a whole list of problems. Finishing with a super-horse price for this ammunition. The manufacturer of the KR 3M-54 produces a maximum of 60 units. A year. Even operational. stocks can not be created. Only for 20% of the current. Repeat slogans thoughtlessly.
2. S WITH
  
  0
  
  26 December 2021 23: 50
  
  will be reflected, you cannot print trillions of dollars indefinitely ... if the West disconnects the Russian Federation from the global payment system, this means the West does not want to receive payments on debts from the Russian Federation and also refuses to pay for the goods of the Russian Federation, and there is no payment - there is no goods (gas, oil, metals etc). The Russian Federation bans the circulation of Western currencies and switches to the yuan (ruble, gold), it can also confiscate the Russian assets of the West for 200 billion
Sergeyjluf

+4

26 December 2021 14: 42

What determines SWIFT: performance! We will sell gas, etc. on a prepayment basis, which depends on how the money goes to the seller! And do not care that the buyers "die" of hunger!
alex-sherbakov48

+2

26 December 2021 16: 02

As Sholokhov wrote in his book Virgin Soil Upturned:

They wanted to beat us,
they tried to beat us,
and we didn’t sit either,
waited for that!

How would Europe not freeze in winter, and not die from the heat in summer! So the SWIFT sanctions are a double-edged weapon!
shiva

0

26 December 2021 21: 55

So why will they not be disconnected? Zombie apocalypse canceled? What a pity. And my garage is already crammed with toilet paper, and at my mother-in-law's dacha, the shed is bursting with buckwheat, and the mice are dying from transmission.
1. shinobi
  
  -1
  
  27 December 2021 08: 27
  
  They will not. And the likelihood of this becomes less and less every year. The question is different. When will the service sectors start to squeeze out of the Swift.
dub0vitsky

-1

27 December 2021 10: 38

Quote: Jacques Sekavar
The disconnection of the Russian Federation from Swift will not affect the dollar in any way - the turnover is minimal, and settlements with the EU will have to be carried out in a roundabout way or transferred to other currencies. It is clear that the Sshasovites will try to block all possible paths, but this is not the worst thing either.
Worse if they freeze the accounts of residents, gold and foreign exchange reserves, the state debt - the largest holder of which they are, not to mention the EU and other state institutions dependent on the US and investment funds.
If it comes to this, “put out the light”. It may not reach cannibalism, but the cost of vegetable gardens will increase tenfold for sure.

In the garden there is an elderberry, and in Kiev there is an uncle. The cost of vegetable gardens, of course, depends only on SWIFT, because the neighbors, except without this system, cannot send each other the loot for the carrot sold. First of all, our sworn partners in Europe will feel it. For without paying in CASH AND SMALL CASH, they will not receive what they buy from us. We will not get that either. what they want to sell to us. We will have to remember the method of transferring funds made BEFORE the introduction of this international system. It will be bad for everyone. Europeans. But, you need to look at how much is only a part of the goods consumed by Europe-gas, and how much it will be in general, taking into account the goods produced in Europe. The part is less than the whole. Cheaper. I hope I'm making it clear? Products not produced due to gas shortages will be many times greater than Russia's losses from delays in gas sales. And, if the gas pipe is capable of shaking the unity of this artificial structure, the EU, then the difficulties in the functioning of the financial system can finally finish it off. We must not forget that SWIFT is not an American, but a European system, and intervention from, say, Russia. disconnecting the US from SWIFT seems absurd. But not the same absurdity of disconnecting Russia from this system by the United States?
1. gunnerminer
  
  -5
  
  27 December 2021 12: 16
  
  The Russian economy is not strong enough to stifle the EU economy; the ruble will fall sharply against the reserve currencies. The speed of international payments will decrease, incl. for the raw materials supplied to Russia for export. Investors will begin to withdraw from rubles and other Russian assets, including government bonds, shares of private companies. Potential malfunction of Visa and Mastercard. Inflation will accelerate due to higher prices for imported goods. There may be a shortage of goods produced in Western countries, in the sense that it will hit the pockets of ordinary people, first of all. Small companies that depend on exports and do not have reserves can go bankrupt altogether, despite the existence of the Mir system.
dub0vitsky

+1

27 December 2021 13: 24

Quote: gunnerminer
The Russian economy is not strong enough to stifle the EU economy; the ruble will fall sharply against the reserve currencies. The speed of international payments will decrease, incl. for the raw materials supplied to Russia for export. Investors will begin to withdraw from rubles and other Russian assets, including government bonds, shares of private companies. Potential malfunction of Visa and Mastercard. Inflation will accelerate due to higher prices for imported goods. There may be a shortage of goods produced in Western countries, in the sense that it will hit the pockets of ordinary people, first of all. Small companies that depend on exports and do not have reserves can go bankrupt altogether, despite the existence of the Mir system.

Obviously, a fight is bad for anyone involved. Everyone gets it. But I suggested not a qualitative examination of the case, but a quantitative one. (I hope you distinguish qualitative from quantitative). What is more - whole or part? Stupid question? Apparently, not everyone seems stupid. Of course, the part is smaller. Gas is a SMALL part of the whole - for example, a computer. We are losing, but in part of our product - gas. The gas buyer loses a whole computer. Or is forced to replace our product with a price agreed and executed for another product with a different price. The difference in prices, approximately, at least, you know? A small effort in overturning the domino, which is the first in the chain of all the others, endlessly connected to each other, leads to the creation of strange patterns. Can you compare their number, in any unit?
Foreign investors will not start with rubles, they have never been there. The rising price of goods, with which we are connected by our ties, and forced to take more expensive raw materials, energy, leads to the fact that THEM are kicked out of the commodity markets in which they were leading. For example, in the European car industry. So, everything big depends on a lot of small things. The price for 1000 m3 FOR US is somewhere around 270 .... 300 dollars? We are losing on the basis of THESE amounts. THEY lose from the price of 1000 ... 2000 dollars. A deficit created by themselves leads to spot speculative losses. Further, how does this affect the cars? Snowball, not proportionality of economies. One should think in this direction.
zzdimk

-1

27 December 2021 15: 36

IMF - Swift? Well, let him fake it.