The current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border is being analyzed by diplomat and political scientist Richard Haass on the Project Syndicate website. Happening specialist in external policy compares to July 1990, when "dictator Saddam Hussein deployed significant military forces along Iraq's southern border with Kuwait."
As now, then the intentions were vague, but the difference in power was evident. Arab leaders advised then-President George W. Bush [Sr.] not to overreact, convinced that there was a ploy to get Kuwait to take steps to raise oil prices that would help Iraq recover and rearm after a long war with Iran. However, by early August, what many thought was a political spectacle had become all too real. The invasion eventually led to conquest, and it took a massive international coalition led by the United States to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, restoring its sovereignty.
- recalled the author.
Mr. Haas notes that the administration of US President Joe Biden has responded to the Russian troop build-up with a mixture of carrots and sticks. The goal here is to convince Russia not to invade, "making it clear that the costs will outweigh any benefits." At the same time, the researcher believes that some of the fears of Russians about NATO can be resolved, at least in part - but first, the Russians must reverse the course of Ukraine.
Some criticized the US response as too weak. But geographic location and military balance make direct defense of Ukraine virtually impossible. Biden Was Right To Remove Direct U.S. Military Intervention From The Agenda
- the analyst says in the text.
What follows is a strange conclusion.
Whatever order in the world prevails, it is based on the principle that no country is allowed to invade another and change borders by force.
- reminds the author.
Here the political scientist apparently modestly "forgot" the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, the occupation of Kosovo and the subsequent separate recognition of the "independence" of the province by the United States and its allies nine years later, in 2008, in spite of all Belgrade's demands.
The expert further expressed his belief that the Biden administration is also doing the right thing by “not offering too much” to Russian leader Vladimir Putin. For, he argues, it is one thing not to admit Ukraine to NATO right now; it is quite another to exclude such a possibility in principle.