A conversation between Putin and Biden: a step from the edge of the abyss can be a jump into it

Even, perhaps, their first “real life” rendezvous on the shores of Lake Geneva did not provoke such an intensity of passions and expectations (alas, for the most part - negative), as the upcoming virtual meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States. The words "the whole world froze, holding its breath" - this, of course, is an outrageously worn stamp, but in this situation it just suggests itself. And there is something - the current negotiations, unlike the previous ones, should take place in an extremely tense situation.

They can mark as a departure from the most severe forms of confrontation, and its new intensification, and then it will be half a step to the worst. To our great regret, no signs that, even with a stretch, could indicate the readiness of the "high negotiating parties" to compromise, are not yet visible. Let's try to understand the alarming signs that accompany the eve of the virtual summit of Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in order to better understand what can be expected from him and what is categorically not worth it.

Instead of greeting gestures - "muscle flexing"

Generally speaking, in international diplomatic practice it has become customary since ancient times: before decisive negotiations and summits (especially when it comes to holding them at the level of "top officials)," the parties exchange certain "curtsies" towards each other - even if we are talking about states that stand on the brink of war. Well, this is the ritual - you understand. Like shaking hands with boxers or bowing to each other on the tatami. The eve of the meeting of the Russian leader with the head of the White House looks all the more frightening. Not only that, the previous weeks were marked by the whipping up of anti-Russian hysteria over the allegedly impending "invasion of Ukraine", in which Washington was the "lead singer" and the most active mouthpiece.

Not only that Moscow, usually quite restrained in responding to such insinuations, in this case responded extremely harshly, without restraining or choosing expressions, but in the end demanded not just respect for its geopolitical interests, but written and legally legitimate guarantees of such. Even the eve of the meeting was marked by statements made on both sides of the ocean, which could not be called friendly or even conciliatory, even with the most violent imagination. For example, the American television company CNN, referring to a "high-ranking and highly informed source" in the Biden administration, said that almost on the president's signature lies "the most aggressive and tough package of sanctions that the United States has taken against any country, for with the exception of North Korea and Iran. " This "gift" is intended, as you might guess, for Russia. Naturally - in the event that she "unleashes aggression against Ukraine." Or rather, the White House will decide that they have "untied".

The alleged restrictions, according to CNN, include not only a blow to our country's sovereign debt, its energy sector, but even disconnecting it from SWIFT. True, as a "very last resort". It must be said that upon closer examination, Washington's "sanctions determination" does not look so formidable: the interlocutor honestly admitted to reporters that there is no "full consensus with European partners" on this issue yet - "a dialogue is being held with them regarding coordination." Also, the White House is well aware of the fact that our country, in response to such a demarche, may well "exert counter pressure using its energy resources." To put it simply, turn off the taps of our pipelines and give some people in Europe the opportunity to “seek consensus,” shaking with might and main from the cold. The Americans, of course, do not really care, but still ...

After the announcement of such "cute" plans, is it worth it to be surprised that Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, on the eve of the meeting of the heads of state, called the relations between the United States and Russia "huge Augean stables" principle. As we can see, the Kremlin does not harbor illusions about the forthcoming conversation, and not even the slightest. That the leaders will be able to "at least clarify their own positions and get answers to some of their questions," Mr. Peskov expressed a very timid hope. All this makes one wonder whether the explanations and questions as such are appropriate in this case? And if we continue the parallel with the myth, referred to by the presidential press secretary, one involuntarily recalls that the heaps of sewage in the stable of the unclean king, whom Hercules endured for the time being, were swept away by a powerful stream of water, which he sent there, having resolved the issue so as radically as it is technically witty.

"We, President Biden, will be pleased to command ..."

In the realities of modern policy the deed of the ancient Greek hero would be called, perhaps, "reboot". One decisive step - and everything can be started from the "blank slate", from the "zero point". But in the same coordinate system in which both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin are today, anything like that is absolutely impossible. The first of them is already being accused of "surrender to the Kremlin." On the eve of the summit, The Wall Street Journal erupted with an article in which the president was directly reproached for the fact that he, you see, "did not fulfill his main pre-election promise - to behave with Putin more harshly than his predecessor." No, after all, he vowed “not to let Moscow escape,” and he himself rolled back the sanctions against Nord Stream-2! He has a nice conversation with the Russian leader, refuses to send weapons to Ukraine in the volume and according to the nomenclature that Kiev demands. How do you want to understand this ?! Obviously fearing that he will be equal in the number of accusations of “working for the Kremlin” with poor Trump (or even surpass him in this indicator), Biden is “hedged” and insured himself as soon as possible.

For example, according to the American media, again referring to "sources in the White House", the president intends to "hold consultations with the European allies and, in particular, Vladimir Zelensky," prior to the conversation with Vladimir Putin. Why?! Exclusively for the purpose of "coordinating messages" in order to enter into a conversation with the Russian leader "with unity and powerful transatlantic solidarity." Here in this place it tempts to add: "at the ready". Judging by these intentions, there will be no constructive dialogue, or at least no semblance of it. In Ukraine, they are now convinced that this geopolitical misunderstanding, in a certain sacred way, “turned out to be at the center of the process of forming a new world order”. By God, that's exactly what they write in the local media, and not even in the most tabloid!

The Ukrainians, again believing that the universe revolves around them, is not funny. It's not even scary. This is a catastrophe. In this state, they are capable of the most fantastic manifestations of idiocy. Now, they seriously believe that it will be the “nezalezhnaya” that will be the most important point of the conversation between the two heads of the superpowers (but what do some oil prices, an energy crisis, an Iranian nuclear program or a pandemic mean in comparison with it ?!). Can the presidents talk about anything other than "concentration of troops on the border of Ukraine" or gas transit through its GTS? Never! There is no doubt that around the "nezalezhnoy" now, indeed, speaking in terms of Dmitry Peskov, a tight and extremely dangerous "Gordian knot" will be tightened. Both the United States and Russia are determined to defend their geopolitical interests precisely on this bridgehead, without retreating an inch. For our country, receiving firm guarantees from the West that it will abandon the insane plans to deploy its military bases on Ukrainian soil or involve this country in NATO are indeed the line, retreating beyond which would be tantamount to geopolitical suicide.

For the United States, this is a matter of international prestige and satisfaction of its own claims to the "world leadership" that has since faded. Nevertheless, Mr. Biden allows himself to make statements like that "he does not recognize any" red lines "drawn in Ukraine by third countries." Could such a position be the basis for a constructive dialogue ?! In no case. If the head of the White House intends to try to "command", set conditions and proclaim ultimatums in a conversation with Vladimir Putin, about which Jen Psaki so sincerely broadcast recently, who asserts that "the task of reducing tension between Kiev and Moscow" lies exclusively with the latter, the matter is completely seams.

And on what, by and large, can an agreement be reached? The United States will never sign a commitment to stop its North Atlantic Drang Nacht Austen. Russia, mindful of past deceptions and broken promises, will by no means agree to less. "Minsk agreements" or their kind of "reincarnation" in the form of a new negotiation format or some other similar agreements, which, most likely, Kiev will not sign, and if it does, it will not adhere to a single day? The situation in comparison with 2015 has changed so much that the return of Donbass to Ukraine is as plausible as the entry of any of the republics of the USSR into the Third Reich. In 1945 ...

The presidents, of course, will have a long and thoughtful conversation (according to Mr. Peskov, “detailed and long-term communication is planned in a completely closed mode.” No statements for the media from their side following the meeting are expected. And this is also a rather alarming sign. foresee a complete failure of the talks in advance. Yes, they will undoubtedly discuss Iran, cyberattacks and “strategic stability." touch Ukraine, otherwise we will stop Nord Stream 2, it will only be wasted time. And, what is much more terrible, a new step towards the abyss. When two presidents cannot come to at least some kind of compromise, even speaking with their own eyes by sight, this means that they have nothing to talk about, and usually guns start talking in such cases.