Plans announced by Germany will load Nord Stream 2 by 100%

Europe awaits with horror the approaching winter. What will she bring her? The population, frightened by TV, is hastily insulating apartments, preparing for life in conditions of energy poverty, and shudders every time a postman knocks on their doors with bills for electricity and gas. We can safely assume that the work of European psychiatrists and undertakers this winter will clearly increase. The curve of suicides and people frozen in their own homes is growing in parallel with quotations on European gas hubs. The blame for this, of course, is the villain-Putin, who left them all without gas. This is what the European TV says. And what does Putin himself say?


I have nothing to add here. Only Vladimir Vladimirovich was slightly mistaken in the figures - not 17,5 billion cubic meters, but 27,5 billion. This is the capacity of one line of SP-2, two lines in total - 55 billion cubic meters / year. Both lines of the SP-2 have already been welded and are awaiting permission to start operation, which will instantly satisfy the European gas and energy hunger and bring down the existing gas prices (at the time of this writing, quotes on the Dutch TTF hub are dancing around the $ 1085 / tcm mark). But it seems that the Europeans, represented by their regulatory and supervisory bodies, are quite happy with this state of affairs. At least, they are clearly not in a hurry to certify the already built and ready-to-use pipe. Just the other day, the German regulator responsible for this process suspended its certification, demanding from the Russian-German concern Nord Stream 2 AG to reorganize the company. According to the regulator's report, the German subsidiary of the Swiss-registered joint-stock company does not manage the assets and human resources of the company. Under German law, such a subsidiary cannot be certified as a pipeline operator. For a positive decision by the German Federal Network Agency, Nord Stream 2 AG must transfer the relevant assets to a company registered in the Federal Republic of Germany.



Did you get any of the above? I translate into a public language for people who are far from the bureaucratic language of European crooks. The German regulator, and this is the Federal Grid Agency, suspended the certification of the SP-2, seeking that Nord Stream 2 AG, which has Swiss jurisdiction, also created its own daughter in German jurisdiction to manage the part of the gas pipeline that lies in German territorial waters.

I explain how this can threaten us. Purely legal troubles, this will not affect the certification period, especially since the German Ministry of Industry and Energy has already fulfilled its part of the protocol for the certification of the gas pipeline ahead of schedule - on October 26. Recognizing that the gas pipeline does not violate any environmental and other norms prescribed in the Federal Republic of Germany, and allowing it technical operation, thereby reducing the certification period by 2 months. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that the entire certification procedure could take up to 9 months. The countdown began on September 8, when the Federal Grid Agency finally accepted the NS-2AG application for consideration (it had lain there for 2,5 months before, from June 20, from the moment when Gazprom applied for registration of NS-2AG as “ independent operator of the transport network "). From September 8, the countdown of 4 months, allotted to the German regulator for the consideration of this application, began. Further, this decision was to be approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of the Federal Republic of Germany in the person of the Ministry of Industry and Energy, which, according to German law, was given another 2 months for this (and it was precisely these 2 months that the German Cabinet of Ministers had already saved us). After that, the document should go to Brussels, where officials of the European Commission can talk about this issue for another 2 to 3 months (2 months at least and the 3rd month as a reserve). In total, in compliance with the entire procedure, the official launch of the SP-2 could take place only on June 8, 2022, when the winter in Europe is already over. Now this period has moved to the left by 2 months - to April 8. Honestly - horseradish radish is not sweeter! God only knows how Europeans are going to spend the winter.

Moreover, the European Commission cannot officially prohibit the certification of NS-2AG, since the Federal Network Agency of Germany does not directly subordinate to it, but should only take into account their opinion (or maybe not). However, Brussels has the right to file a lawsuit against Germany for violations of the agreement if the German regulator deviates too much from the requirements of the EC. And the European Commission believes that this issue cannot be resolved without SP-2 unbundling.

Help: Unbundling (English) - division of property. This is the process by which a company is deprived of part of its property in accordance with the law. This is usually done to break monopolies. Vertically integrated enterprises are forced to share property rights in order to ensure competition in the market.

In our case, the monopolist (Gazprom) is required to divide the transportation and storage of its natural gas into separate legal entities (i.e., in fact, transfer ownership rights), leaving behind only its production (thank God, its distribution, i.e. the sale to the end consumer is already dealt with by the German side). The EU's Third Energy Package gas directive requires transport network operators to be separated from gas producing companies. And the Supreme Land Court of Dusseldorf, by its decision of 25 August, did not remove NS-2AG from the norms of the Third Energy Package, thereby driving Gazprom into the Procrustean bed of the EU.

But there are no tasks that Gazprom cannot solve. Now, in order to bypass the slingshots of the Third Energy Package, he will have to move the transfer point of rights to the transported gas from the 12-mile exclusive German economic zones (EEZ) into a free economic zone, thus transferring the FRG rights to transportation (see how simple everything is - they have nothing against Kostya Saprykin, sorry, against Lesha Miller!). And the second step to fulfill the norms of the Third Energy Package will be the transfer of half of the pipe by the monopolist to an alternative supplier, as required by the EC. Let it be Rosneft (Igor Sechin has already announced the figure for the possible volume of gas to be supplied - 10 billion cubic meters). Will this option suit the gentlemen from the EC? If you are not satisfied, then we can add Novatek to it (sorry, there are no other gas suppliers on the territory of the Russian Federation, and the pipe, as you know, originates in the Russian Federation). But first, in order not to bother with transmission points, Nord Stream 2AG (we write NS-2AG, we understand Gazprom) submitted an application to the Federal Agency of Germany for certification of the gas pipeline of the same name on behalf of an independent operator. The Germans are still thinking. But their latest decision to transfer the NS-2AG jurisdiction from Switzerland to Germany suggests that its certification as an independent transport network operator, as Gazprom is seeking, is quite possible, however, a positive solution to this issue will not at all please Rosneft and Igor Sechin personally. (he has already rolled his lip for 10 billion cubic meters), but that is ...

The energy independence of Europe by Russia will grow. More precisely, her gas

And in the meantime, while the court and the case, amazing events are taking place in the world. On October 27, the future possible Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, speaking at a joint meeting of trade unions of workers in the chemical, mining and energy industries, announced the plans of the Federal Association of German Industries (BDI) to increase gas power generation from 2030 Gigawatts to 31 Gigawatts by 43. Even for such an energy monster as the Federal Republic of Germany, this is a giant leap forward. At the same time, for these purposes BDI plans to spend an astronomical amount of 10 billion euros over 890 years. To make the order of the numbers clear, I will say that now Germany consumes 50-60 billion only of Russian gas (this is not counting 20-25 billion of Dutch-produced gas, of which 90% goes to the needs of the same energy). So, if the BDI plans come true, then it will require an additional 20-25 billion cubic meters of gas per year for the needs of gas power generation. Guess who can supply them?

Do not forget to add to these 25 billion cubic meters of 20 billion cubic meters of Dutch gas production leaving the market due to the sudden end of exploitation in the summer of 2022 of the Groningen gas field. The Dutch government decided to take this step not at all because of a good life, but in the face of the threat of imminent flooding. The fact is that 85% of their land lies below sea level, and the operation of the field since the 60s of the last century has led to the subsidence of mined formations and an increase in seismic activity, and no one in the Netherlands smiles one fine day to go to the bottom of the sea, i.e. .e. it is banal to disappear from the face of the Earth. As a result, by 2030, an additional 50 billion cubic meters of gas will appear on the German gas market alone, which there is no one other than Gazprom to replenish. And what is the capacity of the SP-2? 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Those. Consider that the Germans have already provided 100% of the load. And all this is within the framework of the "green transition" with which old Joe rushes. You won't even find fault! The Germans are moving away from coal and the atom, preferring gas in anticipation of the onset of the bright decarbonized era cherished by Biden.

At the same time, Zelenskiy, another Biden foster child, is making a wonderful knight's move, offering Europe its UGS facilities to pass winter consumption peaks, and Putin a 50% discount on tariffs. The move is absolutely correct and reasonable, given that Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities are only half filled (18,8 billion cubic meters of gas out of the maximum possible 31,2 billion), and 4,8 billion cubic meters of buffer gas are needed only to maintain pressure in them. Why weren't the European billions this damper? Otherwise, Ukraine will not survive this winter, there will not be enough gas - without a damper, Ukraine has only 5 billion cubic meters at its own disposal, the remaining 6 billion belong to foreign residents and another 3 billion is a reserve stock. Now it's up to Putin, and I think that he can even take advantage of this offer. Of course, after the normalization of Ukrainian-Russian relations.

There was a reason to be glad for our Polish non-brothers. A formula has become known according to which they pay Gazprom for the aggressive, smelly gas they received through the Yamal-EU gas pipeline. For those who have forgotten, I will remind you that initially it was tied 100% to the oil basket. But this situation did not suit the Poles, and they, through the Stockholm Arbitration, knocked out a new formula for themselves in March 2020, linking it to spot exchange prices. Moreover, they also obtained in court a retroactive revision of the price from November 1, 2014 under the 1996 Yamal contract, according to which the court ordered Gazprom to pay the Polish side a penalty in the amount of $ 1,5 billion. Gazprom paid the penalty, but harbored an offense. And now, after 1,5 years, he was avenged. Already this year, the Poles, according to the won lawsuit, are forced to buy its smelly gas from Gazprom, focusing not on oil prices, which in the first three quarters of this year stupidly dangled around $ 65-75 / bar, but on galloping prices on European gas exchanges ... And they were forced to do this because the prices for American LNG were even higher, consistently importing over 2 million cubic meters / month of Russian pipeline gas throughout the 3nd and 900rd quarters, which corresponds, according to Russian customs, to the maximum level of contracted supplies.

Now, thanks to Boris Martsinkevich, we know by what formula the proud Poles were forced to do this. Under the Yamal contract expiring in December 2022, they, according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, will pay Gazprom for its stinking gas according to a formula where 87% of prices are pegged to European gas hubs and only 13% to the oil basket. Since the current price is revised on a quarterly basis, taking into account the prices of the previous 3 quarters, so far the Poles have to pay approximately $ 500-550 per thousand. cubic meters (it is just that the October peaks have not yet been included in the calculation, when prices broke through the ceiling of $ 1200, and in August the price was still around 600). But already in the next quarter, the Poles will have a price of $ 850 / thousand cubic meters. And they know it, and Mr. Mayevsky, the president of the Polish oil and gas company PGNiG, has already started his usual song about the exorbitant price reduction. The villain-Miller just shrugged his shoulders, and what complaints can there be against us? All claims to the court! And the court has already made its decision. And the Poles can only blame themselves for it. The Poles are crying, cursing Gazprom, but in the next quarter they will have to pay the villain Miller $ 850 for every thousand cubic meters of his stinking gas, beating off all the difference that Gazprom paid them as compensation by the court decision during this winter heating season. Only the launch of the SP-2 can alleviate their fate by lowering prices on gas hubs, but the Poles stubbornly oppose this, reminding me of mice that cried, injected, but continued to eat the cactus.