What should Russia do if Germany acquires its own nuclear arsenal

A few days ago, the acting Minister of Defense of Germany, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, in an interview that can be considered a programmatic one, said that the NATO bloc is quite ready to use nuclear weapons against Russia to protect its members. Given the extremely difficult history of relations between Moscow and Berlin, these words caused a real storm of emotions, both in Russia and in Germany itself. Let's try to understand what exactly Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer wanted to convey to us, and does the modern FRG even need its own nuclear arsenal?

This is a very complex and ambiguous question, therefore we will divide it into several semantic parts.

"Nuclear Roof"

After the statement of the German Minister of Defense, many versions appeared as to why it was said that way. One of the most realistic explanations is that Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer is laying down straws ahead of time due to global changes in the country's leadership. It is very likely that she sees her next post as NATO Secretary General. Why not? Her predecessor, Ursula von der Leyen, Germany's first female defense minister, rose to the position of head of the European Commission. In this regard, it is worth taking a close look at what the potential candidate for the post of head of the North Atlantic Alliance said:


Let us recall that the Baltic states are not only its famous "tigers", but also our Kaliningrad region. The Black Sea region is not only Romania, Bulgaria or Turkey, but also such potential NATO members as Ukraine and Georgia. That is, by accepting them into the alliance, Brussels automatically takes them under its “nuclear roof”. There is something for our strategists and geopoliticians to think about.

Whose "nuclear shield"?

The second question that I would like to discuss is even more interesting. What kind of nuclear weapons did Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer decide to threaten Russia with? The FRG does not have its own nuclear arsenal. On the other hand, American atomic bombs have been stored on its territory since the time of the Cold War. By the way, the Pentagon has recently begun to rotate them and replace them with modernized versions.

The nuance is that Germany cannot independently use these nuclear weapons. It has the right to participate in "discussion and planning", is obliged to store bombs and provide certified aircraft for their delivery, but not to issue orders. All codes and competencies are in the hands of the Pentagon. This means that if they are used, a global nuclear war will start. Is it worth throwing such threats that mean the terrible death of hundreds of millions, if not billions of people on the planet? Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer, you are, after all, a German woman. Where are you climbing? Maybe you still need to add antennae with a brush for completeness of the image?

That is why sane Germanic policy They have long been talking about the need to withdraw the American nuclear arsenal from the FRG. Nobody wants to be targets for the Strategic Missile Forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, and no one has yet canceled the historical memory. However, the conclusion is not so simple. It is feared that if Berlin abandons the storage of atomic bombs by the US Air Force, Warsaw will take its place, which will further increase the degree of militaristic tension in Eastern Europe.

What if?

Let's imagine what would happen if suddenly Germany itself seriously decides to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. WITH technical From the point of view, there are no special obstacles for this, this is a purely political issue. What are the possible consequences?

On the one hand, if the FRG does create a nuclear arsenal, it will be a huge step towards the return of full sovereignty for Berlin. Germany to this day is de facto a country occupied by the Americans. Having obtained nuclear bombs and missiles, Germany will be able to politely ask the Pentagon to leave. It will also establish parity in strike weapons with its "sworn" neighbors in Europe - France and Great Britain, which are nuclear powers. All this will allow Berlin to pursue a more independent foreign policy, looking less back at the Anglo-Saxons, which, in general, is beneficial to Russia.

By the way, about the Anglo-Saxons. The creation of a trilateral alliance of the USA, Great Britain and Australia under the name AUKUS, where they basically did not invite Germany and France, objectively requires a military rapprochement between Berlin and Paris. A unified European army is becoming truly relevant, where the German and French Armed Forces should form the basis. The emergence of two alternative and rival military blocs will make NATO a kind of formal structure that exists, but no longer decides anything. In such a scenario, it will be more profitable for Russia to focus on the Paris-Berlin axis as opposed to AUKUS. It is very likely that China will also be guided by the Franco-German alliance.

On the other hand, it is obvious that such large-scale initiatives will not remain without consequences. If Germany gets its own nuclear arsenal, then literally the next day neighboring Poland will ask the United States to transfer American atomic bombs for storage. And with a 100% probability, this request will be satisfied.

Thus, the creation of a nuclear arsenal by the FRG will lead to the most radical changes in the alignment of forces not only in the Old World, but throughout the world.