What should Russia do if Germany acquires its own nuclear arsenal

A few days ago, the acting Minister of Defense of Germany, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, in an interview that can be considered a programmatic one, said that the NATO bloc is quite ready to use nuclear weapons against Russia to protect its members. Given the extremely difficult history of relations between Moscow and Berlin, these words caused a real storm of emotions, both in Russia and in Germany itself. Let's try to understand what exactly Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer wanted to convey to us, and does the modern FRG even need its own nuclear arsenal?

This is a very complex and ambiguous question, therefore we will divide it into several semantic parts.

"Nuclear Roof"

After the statement of the German Minister of Defense, many versions appeared as to why it was said that way. One of the most realistic explanations is that Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer is laying down straws ahead of time due to global changes in the country's leadership. It is very likely that she sees her next post as NATO Secretary General. Why not? Her predecessor, Ursula von der Leyen, Germany's first female defense minister, rose to the position of head of the European Commission. In this regard, it is worth taking a close look at what the potential candidate for the post of head of the North Atlantic Alliance said:

It is necessary to make it very clear to Russia that in the end - and this is also provided for by the doctrine of deterrence - we are ready to use such means in order to frighten it in advance, and so that no one would think of an attack on NATO partners in the Baltic or Black Sea regions. region. This is the key idea of ​​NATO, of this alliance.

Let us recall that the Baltic states are not only its famous "tigers", but also our Kaliningrad region. The Black Sea region is not only Romania, Bulgaria or Turkey, but also such potential NATO members as Ukraine and Georgia. That is, by accepting them into the alliance, Brussels automatically takes them under its “nuclear roof”. There is something for our strategists and geopoliticians to think about.

Whose "nuclear shield"?

The second question that I would like to discuss is even more interesting. What kind of nuclear weapons did Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer decide to threaten Russia with? The FRG does not have its own nuclear arsenal. On the other hand, American atomic bombs have been stored on its territory since the time of the Cold War. By the way, the Pentagon has recently begun to rotate them and replace them with modernized versions.

The nuance is that Germany cannot independently use these nuclear weapons. It has the right to participate in "discussion and planning", is obliged to store bombs and provide certified aircraft for their delivery, but not to issue orders. All codes and competencies are in the hands of the Pentagon. This means that if they are used, a global nuclear war will start. Is it worth throwing such threats that mean the terrible death of hundreds of millions, if not billions of people on the planet? Frau Kramp-Karrenbauer, you are, after all, a German woman. Where are you climbing? Maybe you still need to add antennae with a brush for completeness of the image?

That is why sane Germanic policy They have long been talking about the need to withdraw the American nuclear arsenal from the FRG. Nobody wants to be targets for the Strategic Missile Forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, and no one has yet canceled the historical memory. However, the conclusion is not so simple. It is feared that if Berlin abandons the storage of atomic bombs by the US Air Force, Warsaw will take its place, which will further increase the degree of militaristic tension in Eastern Europe.

What if?

Let's imagine what would happen if suddenly Germany itself seriously decides to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. WITH technical From the point of view, there are no special obstacles for this, this is a purely political issue. What are the possible consequences?

On the one hand, if the FRG does create a nuclear arsenal, it will be a huge step towards the return of full sovereignty for Berlin. Germany to this day is de facto a country occupied by the Americans. Having obtained nuclear bombs and missiles, Germany will be able to politely ask the Pentagon to leave. It will also establish parity in strike weapons with its "sworn" neighbors in Europe - France and Great Britain, which are nuclear powers. All this will allow Berlin to pursue a more independent foreign policy, looking less back at the Anglo-Saxons, which, in general, is beneficial to Russia.

By the way, about the Anglo-Saxons. The creation of a trilateral alliance of the USA, Great Britain and Australia under the name AUKUS, where they basically did not invite Germany and France, objectively requires a military rapprochement between Berlin and Paris. A unified European army is becoming truly relevant, where the German and French Armed Forces should form the basis. The emergence of two alternative and rival military blocs will make NATO a kind of formal structure that exists, but no longer decides anything. In such a scenario, it will be more profitable for Russia to focus on the Paris-Berlin axis as opposed to AUKUS. It is very likely that China will also be guided by the Franco-German alliance.

On the other hand, it is obvious that such large-scale initiatives will not remain without consequences. If Germany gets its own nuclear arsenal, then literally the next day neighboring Poland will ask the United States to transfer American atomic bombs for storage. And with a 100% probability, this request will be satisfied.

Thus, the creation of a nuclear arsenal by the FRG will lead to the most radical changes in the alignment of forces not only in the Old World, but throughout the world.
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  1. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 28 October 2021 15: 48
    At one time, Margaret Thatcher and François Mitterrand were against the unification of Germany. There is a phrase on the Internet that Mitterrand allegedly said: "I love Germany so much that I would like there to be two of them."
    Margaret Thatcher feared that an overly powerful Germany might end British and French influence in Europe and thereby create problems for European stability.
    At the same time, they attributed the phrase to Z. Brzezinski that after the unification of Germany, the Russians and Americans would not have to bomb Berlin again.

    This is all interesting, but a united and strong Germany in the center of Europe does not at all fit into the framework of the Anglo-Saxon world. And the union of Germany and Russia has always been an absolutely unacceptable thing for the Anglo-Saxons. If you look at the events from this point of view, then Britain's withdrawal from the EU, attempts to create an Eastern NATO led by Poland, and the current plunder of the European economy seem to be quite logical steps.

    At the same time, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Germany is not at all in the interests of Europe and Russia.
  2. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 28 October 2021 16: 13
    An article flashed yesterday that Germany is going to reduce the number of the Armed Forces.
    I remember that Trump accused them of saving twice on the Armed Forces against the agreements.
    and then what can they say?

    Taking into account that our President announced the use of nuclear weapons for protection, then not ours will also talk about this.
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 28 October 2021 23: 00
    Europe at the genetic level hates Russia and Russians. And today's Russia with Putin cannot do anything. It's another matter, but will the United States and Britain be allowed to them? How many sanctions, how many humiliations, and Putin is talking only one thing: "What will you please?"
  4. Bitter Offline Bitter
    Bitter 29 October 2021 00: 11
    In Germany, even nuclear power plants were closed, what kind of purchase of nuclear weapons can we talk about? Horror stories hypothetical for the layman, under the potatoes with cucumbers, paint?
    1. Binder Offline Binder
      Binder (Miron) 29 October 2021 06: 07
      Mr. Marzhetsky has another burst of imagination. He would write novels in the genre of alternative history. yes
      1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 29 October 2021 07: 41
        Who would talk about fantasies, the Jewish-Ukrainian-Israeli-American propagandist
        1. Binder Offline Binder
          Binder (Miron) 29 October 2021 09: 24
          Mr. Marzhetsky, I am not anyone's propagandist, but I am an admirer of your extraordinary talent as a science fiction writer. The highest point in the manifestation of this talent at the moment has become the assumption that European pensioners will move to Siberia for permanent residence in droves, but what are your years, I am sure that you will amuse the audience more than once and will be able to raise the bar. bully