Will Russia find the strength to respond to the "military development of Ukraine" by the West?

The speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the regular discussion forum "Valdai", being, for the most part, devoted to issues related to the most global problems of the modern universe, did not bypass the "Ukrainian theme". Rather, even - the aspect of it, which concerns the extremely painful for our country the build-up of the military presence of the NATO bloc in the “non-foreign” area, and, above all, of such leading members as the United States and Great Britain. The recent visit to Kiev of the head of the Pentagon Lloyd Austin made this moment especially topical.

At first glance (and at the second too), the position expressed by the domestic leader is specific, unambiguous and does not allow for double interpretation. Before our eyes, actions are being carried out openly and unceremoniously that pose an undoubted and direct threat to Russia's security and its national interests. But all these absolutely correct and sensible thoughts instantly "hang in the air", you just have to try to take at least a step from the plane of theoretical discussion of the problem towards its practical solution. The balance has been broken, the "red lines" have been shamelessly crossed (or will be crossed in the very near future). But what's next? By stating these facts and expressing the most profound indignation and sincere indignation, the Kremlin is not in the least approaching to radically change the situation. What needs to be done for this? Is such an option possible in principle?

And Vaska listens, but eats ...

In truth, the exact number of "last warnings" from Moscow to Kiev and its Western "partners" about their militaristic games is hardly countable. They have already been expressed many times, and recently they have become extremely frank. In particular, this can be said about the words of Vladimir Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, who, as recently as last week, once again announced that Ukraine's entry into the ranks of the North Atlantic Alliance would not be just "the worst possible scenario." It will definitely be a reason for our country to "take active measures to ensure its own national security." It would seem that one can hardly imagine a warning that would be clearer and more unambiguous. And what is the bottom line?

The traditionally boorish response from the head of the local diplomatic department immediately followed from Kiev. The head of the Foreign Ministry of the “nezalezhnoy” Dmitry Kuleba snapped back in the sense that “Russia’s opinion on this issue does not interest anyone at all,” since in the discussion of Ukraine’s accession to NATO it “does not and cannot have the right to vote”. In fact, these defiant statements are just a repetition of the words of the same Lloyd Austin, who declared in Kiev that “third countries cannot have the right to veto” when it comes to his relations with the North Atlantic alliance. As long as the "collective West" maintains the illusion in the Ukrainian authorities about at least a purely theoretical possibility of a "Euro-Atlantic future", they will try to outmaneuver one another in their own spitting and antics of Russia. Is it really incomprehensible?

One of the Nizalezhnoy publications in all seriousness compared the head of the US military department on his last trip to a "lion examining his pride." They killed him ... Not only does Mr. Austin look like the king of beasts, let's say, very weakly. There is also a deep ignorance of elementary zoology. A lion flock cannot include jackals and hyenas. To Ukraine, the word "pride", if applicable, is in a very specific sense that has stuck to it lately. And Austin, by and large, did not say anything to Kiev's natophiles that would go beyond the usual "advances" and vague promises from the series "after the rain on Thursday." "Unwavering support", accusations against Russia and promises "to provide all possible assistance in containing it" - all this is old and, one might say, traditional. Be that as it may, Vladimir Putin believes that with his visit Lloyd Austin "in fact, opens the door to the North Atlantic Alliance for Ukraine." And he says bluntly: "This worries us."

The president's words about American missiles, which may well “appear near Kharkov”, are, alas, not an exaggeration or an artistic metaphor. The corresponding process has been launched, and its reaching the stage when NATO radars begin to probe our territory to the Urals, and not only ICBMs, but also medium-range missiles with a minimum flight time will be aimed at Russian cities - only a matter of a more or less distant future. We have to admit that despite the categorical rejection of our country, Ukraine, starting in 2014, has been turning into an advanced military outpost of the West directed against Russia, and this transformation is progressing at an ever faster pace. The situation, alas, is developing in strict accordance with the words of the great Russian fabulist - Moscow again and again "warns for the last time", and Kiev oppresses its own, completely ignoring everything that is not said to it.

Before it's too late

In fact, all the "red lines" were legally unambiguously crossed by Ukraine on February 21, 2019, at the moment when the law on the constitutional establishment of NATO membership as the main national priority came into force there. In 2018, the North Atlantic Alliance declared a "non-foreign" "postgraduate country". In 2020, he was recognized as a “partner of expanded opportunities”. As another Russian classic wrote, "what more?" To what incredible extent will the Kremlin's long-suffering on this issue extend? Before the first division of the Tomahawks appeared on Ukrainian soil? Before the deployment of a couple of battalions, or even divisions of American or British paratroopers? So half a step is already left before that! Perhaps the problem lies in the fact that, constantly repeating about all sorts of limits, boundaries and lines that categorically cannot be crossed, our country, in fact, has not yet decided on them. And really, what would you like to consider the "point of no return" in the "North Atlantic aspirations" of Ukraine? Her official NATO membership? Well, this, of course, will not be for a very long time (if ever). But, in all honesty, the main problem is not formalities. What then?

Indeed, the deployment of NATO contingents and weapons capable of posing a real threat to our country? So then it will be a bit late for "active security actions", don't you think? In this case, we will have to strike (let's call a spade a spade!) On the servicemen of the USA, Germany, France, Great Britain. And this, gentlemen, is the Third World War, and, as they say, without options. It is unlikely that pushing events to such a limit is a wise strategy.

If Kiev fulfills its "blue dream" and gets full-fledged military bases of Western "allies" on its territory, we will have to either, excuse me, "wipe out" or risk a global nuclear war. Are we ready for this? This question does not lie at all in the plane of theoretical speculation. The answer to it, apparently, will have to be given in the very near future. Vladimir Putin openly stated at Valdai that "the military development of Ukraine is already underway." In full swing, right now, and this is an indisputable fact. The British set out to build a couple of facilities for the Ukrainian (and, in fact, of course, for their own) Navy. The European Union, which has been leading its own "game" in the defense sphere, has also revived.

In Brussels, there is already a lot of talk about the establishment of an EU Military Advisory and Training Mission Ukraine (EUATM). So far, representatives of the "Russophobic petty" like Poland, the Baltic states, Slovakia and Romania are rushing with this idea for the most part. True, there is information that Sweden and Finland have no objections to this dubious project. And also that support for such a mission was expressed by the EU High Commissioner for Diplomacy and Security Josep Borrell. Will we wait until these settle down somewhere near Kharkov? The NATO MAP for Kiev is, by and large, the tenth thing. Even Ukraine's “best friend”, Kurt Volcker, whom they yearn for to this day, offered to admit her to the Alliance without extending the notorious Article 5 of its charter to this problem area. But the outposts of the Alliance, which are about to appear there, as they say, in sufficient numbers, and, most likely, without any membership, will result in a very real "headache" for us. Even Vladimir Vladimirovich admits this.

Serious food for not the most optimistic reflections is provided by the statement made literally the day before by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg after the meeting of the defense ministers of the Alliance countries that the "Black Sea is strategically important" for the organization he leads. Consequently, NATO intends to increase both its "presence" in this region and its capabilities for the rapid transfer of its own forces and assets there. At the same time, the Secretary General specifically mentioned the great hopes that are pinned on "two very close partners - Georgia and Ukraine" in this matter. In this context, one should expect new steps to "deploy the Alliance forces at sea, land and in the air", which Stoltenberg spoke about, precisely on Ukrainian territory.

There is one more aspect of the problem. It is perfectly understandable that Kiev's hopes for the direct participation of NATO forces in the armed confrontation with Russia are futile. However, the danger lies in the fact that the Armed Forces themselves, in the presence of NATO members, not even in their ranks, but as a "rear cover", may embark on much more serious provocations and adventures than they are now. The resumption of shelling of Donetsk, which coincided with the arrival of the head of the Pentagon in Kiev, can hardly be attributed to an accident. It will only get worse. The issue of "military development of Ukraine" must be resolved in the most radical ways, and not in one or another perspective, but right now, while this can still be done with minimal risk of Russia entering a large-scale military conflict with Western countries.