Russia or China - who are the Americans really more afraid of?

Recently, it has not ceased to "delight" us with a wide variety of forecasts regarding the prospects for the beginning in the foreseeable future of a military conflict not of a local, but of a full-scale, perhaps even of a world level. Western analysts and experts of various levels - from newspaper observers to employees of serious research centers - are "giving out" such studies one after another. As you can see, our "sworn friends" still have a "scent cut through" so that even they could smell the smell of gunpowder clearly hovering over the world.

To our great regret, not at all optimistic assumptions and alarmist conclusions from them have quite definite prerequisites and grounds. The geopolitical confrontation between various states and their alliances in the context of the collapse of the "unipolar" world has been aggravated to such an extent that extremely "explosive" situations follow one after another. However, within the framework of this article, I would like to focus on one aspect - confrontation with which particular country in the West is considered the shortest path to the Third World War? Simply put - who is there more afraid of and considered the most dangerous enemy?

"Hot spots" of the planet

A considerable revival in our country was caused by the publication of the British tabloid The Sun, the authors of which not only listed the places of possible military clashes that have the potential to develop into a general conflict, but were not even too lazy to draw a map of them. The great enthusiasm of domestic experts and journalists was generated by the fact that, among the “pain points” scattered all over the planet, there was practically not a single one where Russia could become a participant in direct confrontation. The only exception can be considered Syria, but the authors of the publication tend to see in it only a possible arena for the battle between Ankara and Damascus with the participation of the United States. Everything else with our borders, as the saying goes, "did not even stand near." In the first place, of course, Taiwan is depicted, where the United States and China can converge in open battle. The next point, which is characteristic, again, is connected with the Celestial Empire - this is Kashmir, the border dispute over which Delhi and Beijing have been waging for a long time, and from time to time it really reaches the point of clashes. The compilers of the list see a considerable threat in Iran - in their opinion, it can grapple with both Israel and the UAE (for example, for control over the Strait of Hormuz). The "sore" North Korean issue has not been ignored either - the degree of probability of a war between the DPRK and the United States is assessed as quite high. As you can see, the above list completely lacks all those directions in which, according to the zapoloshny statements from Brussels and the same Washington, that sooner or later "Russian aggression" must surely happen, or has already happened ... This leads to contradictory thoughts and gives grounds for a variety of assumptions. Don't believe their own propaganda? Fear? Or are they simply lulling our vigilance ?!

No, really, where are Georgia and Ukraine? After all, against them, according to Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, our country “started a war”, “annexed” something there and even “occupied” somewhere? Where is Belarus? After all, the West-2021 exercises held on its territory not so long ago caused a storm of emotions at NATO headquarters. Almost shouted about the Apocalypse ... Where is Poland? Or, at the very worst, the Baltic states, shaking like an aspen leaf in the endless anticipation of an "invasion from the East"? By the way, quite reasonable statements about Belarus and Poland were recently voiced in the United States. Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior researcher at the Cato Institute there, said that a full-scale war between the United States and Russia could begin right on their borders. The reason, according to the scientist, may be some "provocation, the culprits of which will never be found." Tellingly, Mr. Carpenter believes that Joe Biden should not only "settle" this issue with Vladimir Putin in order to avoid troubles, but also "put his mind" into Warsaw. Someone should be told there that further "muscle flexing" on the Belarusian border is "useless and dangerous", and the notorious Article 5 of the NATO Charter "does not give the Alliance members the right to reckless provocations." Very sensible thoughts!

Let's return, however, to the list from The Sun. Some people in our country are inclined to believe that he is a true testimony that the West has finally understood: with Russia (especially if it has Avangards, Zircons, Daggers and further down the list), jokes are bad ... So they listed as the most likely opponents of the United States and NATO only those countries that are "less afraid". It sounds pretty damn enticing, but ... The presence of China on the list somewhat neutralizes this assumption. A real conflict with Beijing will inevitably result in a nuclear clash - this is well understood in Washington.

Underestimating the price of Armageddon

In order to more realistically imagine the West's view of a possible global war, it is perhaps worth turning not to the creations of British journalists, but to the conclusions that the analysts of the world-famous RAND corporation made in their recent research, just on the issues security and specializing. Its authors, in principle, do not make any sensational discoveries - they see the greatest danger for the United States not specifically in Moscow or Beijing, but in their probable alliance directed against American "vital interests." Many of the estimates released by RAND sound controversial enough, which, however, happens to its experts on a regular basis. Thus, the authors of the study argue: "the combined military power of Russia and China is already very close to the similar potential of the United States," but in no case will it be equal to it, at least until 2022. Moreover, analysts complain about the "decline in American defense power to 0.6 from the level of 0.7 in 1997". At the same time, the joint Russian-Chinese indicator of the "military index" is estimated by them for some reason at 0.41. What kind of tricky scale was used in this case? What is such a dubious balance of power based on? A mystery covered in darkness. The main thing is to make a spiritually uplifting conclusion: "The United States will continue to stay one step ahead of its opponents."

This sounds, however, not very convincing, especially against the background of the data provided in the same study regarding the increase in the defense power of the Celestial Empire for the period from 2016. The commissioning of a second aircraft carrier, 23 new missile destroyers, 29 new frigates, seven dozen fifth-generation J-20 fighters and more than two hundred 229 new ICBM silos ... step or half step.

As for Russia, then RAND is generally overcome by a strange "blindness". Its analysts in all seriousness broadcast that "the indicators of its armaments have remained at the same level during this time, and, perhaps, even decreased." What are you talking about, gentlemen ?! About hypersonic missiles, combat robots, new submarines and more? "Zircon" for you, perhaps, should flutter through the office window - to realize the realities? Moreover, further, all the same authors, not at all embarrassed, begin to explain the "breakthrough" growth of the Chinese military potential ... by cooperation with Russia! This, in their opinion, is expressed both in providing the Celestial Empire with "access to high-class weapons systems" and in "the work of Russian specialists at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex of China." Quite a strange "logic", isn't it?

The researchers conclude their opus with spreading reflections on how, nevertheless, to prevent the deepening and expansion of their so frightening cooperation. According to RAND experts, only “a significant relaxation of Western sanctions” could help here, as a result of which Moscow “would come to its senses” and began to “build relations” with the United States and the European Union. At the same time, her relationship with Beijing, perhaps, "would weaken or even decline." However, as the authors of the report clarify, it is hardly advisable to count on such a turn. Consequently, "building the Moscow-Beijing axis," in their opinion, will continue. Moreover, with an extremely unpleasant result for the "collective West" and, above all, for the United States. Moreover, the more severe the "measures of influence" taken against both of these countries, the closer and more versatile their community will become.

As you can see, it is rather difficult to give an unambiguous answer to the question: "What threat does the United States consider to be the main one for itself: Russian or Chinese?" For many years, but what are there years - decades, the stupid myth that existed in the West about the "irreparable scientifictechnical backwardness ”of our country continues to play nasty jokes with its creators and adherents. Not to see the absolutely obvious point-blank - you still have to try! But they succeed. The Americans are ready to rather believe that the Chinese have "hypersound" (which Beijing, by the way, desperately denies) than to adequately assess the modern potential of our country. Vladimir Putin's recent admission that "Mach 20 intercontinental hypersonic missiles are on alert," capable of hitting any targets overseas without any problems, is a serious reason for Washington to finally think about it. Underestimating the opponent can have not only grave, but fatal consequences, and for the whole world, because the collision of our powers will lead to a global thermonuclear conflict absolutely unambiguously.

However, this situation is relevant not only in relation to Russia. Speaking the other day at the Pentagon's annual Sea Air Space conference, Army General Mark Millie, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, admitted that China is today "seen as the main agent of change in the current international order." Nevertheless, a senior Pentagon official immediately announced that the US Navy is currently "the best in the world" and should remain so in the future. Generally speaking, according to data released not so long ago by the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) of the United States, the largest navy on the planet, numbering 360 combat units, was located just last year in China, not the United States with its 297 ships. ... According to ONI's forecast, by 2030, when Beijing has at least 425 warships, the gap will widen even further. These are facts that, alas, Washington chooses to ignore. And in vain. You don't have to be afraid - you just need to see things real. And not provoke either China or Russia.