Ukraine is clinging to the war. Why Kiev began to provoke Donbass

The escalation of tension in Donbass is on the rise. On the one hand, fortunately, it is still a long way to a full resumption of hostilities, on the other hand, there are aspects in the current situation that make one assume that this time everything is much more serious than it might seem at first glance. Perhaps the most frightening of them is that Kiev provokes a sharp exacerbation not only openly, but, one might say, even demonstratively. They are clearly deliberately "rocking" the situation, pushing the representatives of the Republics to retaliate drastic actions, and they have already achieved something in this regard.

As you know, war is just a "continuation policy by other means ". Consequently, the current "nezalezhnoy" government, carrying out such reckless actions, pursues some of its own, quite specific goals. Which ones and can they in reality be achieved by kindling a new fire in the East? Let's try to figure it out.

Is it Nuland's fault?

It can hardly be considered too bold to suggest that a new outbreak of openly provocative actions by Ukraine followed immediately after the visit to Moscow by US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. Rather, for the announcement of the results of her negotiations with the deputy head of the Russian presidential administration Dmitry Kozak, who is in charge of the "Donbass issue". To tell the truth, in the "nezalezhnoy" in all seriousness they expected that the formidable State Department lady, who was pretty noted in the "Maidan" coup d'etat, would go to our country in order to "push through" decisions beneficial to Kiev. For example - the full-fledged entry of the United States into the negotiation process for a peaceful settlement in the East of the country, or even the creation of a completely new format for this process, "nullifying" the "Minsk" and "Normandy" categorically not satisfying the Ukrainian side.

Imagine the disappointment and indignation of the “patriots” after Victoria Nuland not only called her meeting with Kozak “productive”, but also reaffirmed Washington's adherence to the “Minsk Agreements”. Including - and the implementation of their political part, in which the granting of a special status to Donbass is spelled out in black and white, from which they are “kicked out” in Kiev by all conceivable and inconceivable means. Happy joy! However, the devil, as usual, is in the details. Nuland, speaking on this topic, clarified that the implementation of "Minsk" must certainly be carried out in a way "acceptable and safe for Ukraine", and also did not hesitate to mention the ritual formula about "the withdrawal of Russian forces and their puppets from Donbass." It is unlikely that this is the formulation that will suit Donetsk, Lugansk, and Moscow too.

Nevertheless, in Kiev, as you can see, they decided to "play it safe" - the good and the reason turned up the appropriate, and immediately. On October 14, a special holiday was celebrated in the “nezalezhnaya” - “Defender's Day”, and this date made it possible to “broadcast” a whole heap of not just aggressive, but openly provocative statements. President of the country Volodymyr Zelensky, in his characteristic boastful and incoherent manner, broadcast on Khortytsya in front of the cadets of military lyceums about how the “zhovto-blakit” flag will still “fly over the Crimea and Donbass,” and that they still “have to tell their grandchildren how Ukraine can take your own. " Judging by the tonality and context of the clown boast, it was not at all about future diplomatic successes in this case.

The former head of the “nezalezhnoy” Ministry of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, went even further in his rhetoric. For this character, who is already listed as atrocities in three Nuremberg, shed blood, apparently, is not enough. On the same day, he not only shamed the "generals who declare that they do not have a military scenario for de-occupation", but also called on "to leave talks about a peaceful path to diplomats" and begin full-scale preparations for the return of Donbass and Crimea "with the help of strategy and weapons ". How could it be otherwise - after all, as the ex-minister proclaimed, “we are a nation of Cossacks and Sich riflemen”! Especially Avakov. Hm ... However, the miserable nationalistic curtsies of one of the most vile and bloody characters of the "Maidan" junta are the tenth thing. Much more important is that he said: "the appropriate strategy" was developed by his department back in 2018. Between the lines it reads: there is little to do - to bring him back to power and put his "best practices" into practice. For no reason, no reason, just for the sake of an individual, like Avakov, they do not suit such demarches, alas.

From belligerent words to real war?

One way or another, one could try to write off all this on the traditional for Kiev militaristic-Russophobic chatter, with the help of which the local politicians traditionally try to divert the attention of fellow citizens from real and pressing problems, if not for one "but". All the same, on October 13, that is, exactly on the day of "constructive negotiations" between Nuland and Kozak in the "gray zone" near Zolote, a special group of the SBU captured Andrei Kosyak, representing the LPR in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC). The officer was engaged in demining the area.

As could be expected, the representatives of Ukraine treacherously captured by them in the disengagement zone a soldier immediately accused of "espionage" and "reconnaissance of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" ... At the same time, before presenting any accusations to Kosyak, one should first answer a number of immediately arising questions. And the first of them will be: "What the hell were the" specialists "doing in the demilitarized breeding zone, not even from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but from the SBU ?!" And, by the way, the fact that the operation was carried out precisely with their participation, and not by the forces of the "Sivolapa infantry", irrefutably testifies to the fact that we are facing not an accident, which abounds in any war, but a pre-planned and carefully prepared operation. It is unlikely that its purpose was to capture a person who ended up being hostage to the situation. There was clearly a much more distant calculation. The events that followed the provocation make it possible with a very high degree of probability to assert what exactly it was. The blow was struck precisely at the “Minsk process”, and at the same time, at those “unnecessary witnesses” who ended up in Donbas within its framework.

As could be expected, after such an unprecedentedly impudent and defiant antics of Kiev, Lugansk almost immediately announced the suspension of their participation in the Minsk process and the withdrawal of security guarantees for the work carried out in the “gray zone”. That is, from now on there can be no talk of any "peaceful settlement" or even imitation of negotiations on it. Another aspect of the incident was that the residents of the Donbass Republics, whose long-suffering this time came to an end, decided to call to account those who, in theory, should act as guarantors of preventing such blatant actions of the Ukrainian side - the monitoring mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Its members reacted to the capture of Andrey Kosyak in their traditional manner. That is, you can't.

They simply "did not notice" this blatant fact. Moreover, they did not find anything better than to make a statement later that they were “not present at the scene of the events,” and therefore they do not consider it possible to evaluate and include in their reports what happened. And this despite the fact that in Kiev they did not even think to deny the next hostage-taking - they recognized it immediately and completely! These actions of the OSCE resulted in the fact that the Donetsk residents, who were finally enraged by such openly playing up to Kiev, simply took into the blockade the place of deployment of the mission in the DPR - the Park Inn hotel. The action was purely peaceful. Well, except that horrifying photographs of the victims of the atrocities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hung around the district, which the Europeans stubbornly refuse to record, and they painted glasses on the walls with paint, which, according to residents of the DPR, are urgently needed by the mission staff.

However, even these rather innocent actions frightened the observers to such an extent that the head of the OSCE mission in Ukraine, Yashar Halit Cevik, made an official statement on the suspension of its activities "for security reasons." However, in the LPR, the republic's authorities themselves limited the work of the mission - until Andrei Kosyak was released. In any case, if Kiev wanted to remove “inconvenient” representatives of the European Union from Donbass, even if in one case out of a thousand, but no, no, and even pointing the Ukrainian side to certain facts of the lawlessness it was doing, then they achieved their goal. So far - temporarily, and then - who knows. In the worst case, such a desire may indicate the real intentions of the leadership of the "nezalezhnoy" to move from hypocritical games into "peace negotiations" to a large-scale attempt to seize Donbass by military force.

A number of factors can push Kiev to such an adventurous decision, smelling of suicide. First of all, Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage too clearly feel the increasingly open "cooling" of the West towards themselves. The same publication of the notorious "Pandora's dossier" looks like a clear signal that their days are numbered. Can the Kiev gang make a bet that in the situation of an acute phase of a military conflict, the country's leadership will not change its curators? Quite. The other side of the issue is the most acute socialeconomic a crisis that has ripened in the country. An unprecedentedly harsh winter is on the doorstep, and there is no coal or gas in the country. Whole regions face a more than real prospect of freezing and power outages. Even in the capital at the present moment, by the way, despite a strong cold snap, the heating season, contrary to all promises, has not yet begun. What can we say about the province?

All this, coupled with the promoted rise in energy prices and the rapid rise in prices for all essential goods (and, first of all, foodstuffs), may well cause such a social explosion in the non-sales area, before which all paid “Maidans” will immediately fade away. And how could there be a better solution in this situation than the introduction of a state of emergency, or even martial law? Those in power will spend the winter in all sorts of ways. And then all the others will be blamed on "victims of aggression." It is very likely that in Kiev, provoking an escalation of the war in Donbass, they are guided by exactly this logic, and no other.