Who will be named the main culprit in the energy crisis?

An unprecedented energy crisis in Europe is growing, and the calendar winter has not even begun yet. Already, the most important sectors of the EU industry have been affected, which will undoubtedly affect the entire world the economy... Will the energy crisis end in the spring of 2022 with the arrival of heat, and who will be designated as the main culprit?

Who would have thought in the "coronavirus" 2020 that the next year 2021 would become an "energy crisis"? Now it remains only to recall with nostalgia how the cost of 1 thousand cubic meters of gas fell to the level of $ 30-40, and oil did not cost anything at all, that is, went into negative values. Now, at the price of 1200 dollars per thousand cubic meters, you will no longer surprise anyone, and after all, the winter cold has not even come yet. What will happen, say, in December? Or in January?



At Gazprom, they nod at Nord Stream 2 as a way to solve all problems. Say, just give permission, and we will fill the entire European Union with inexpensive gas. Sounds good, but the fact is that Europe itself has also begun to change, and six months or a year later, the EU will be completely different from what it is now, and its attitude towards Russia and Gazprom will also change. The severity of the difficulties that have befallen the Europeans is too great, someone must answer for this, but they are not ready to admit their share of the blame.

Quiet horror

Fertilizer producers were the first to suffer in the Old World, and they were forced to stop working due to unprofitability. It started in the UK, then the SOS signal was sent by their competitors in Norway, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, China and Ukraine. The cost of one thousand cubic meters of gas at the level of $ 1 turned out to be excessive in order to keep the fertilizer plants afloat. We should expect an increase in fertilizer prices next year and a corresponding increase in the cost of food.

Metallurgists were the second to throw out the white flag. Aluminum producer ArcelorMittal has ceased operations because the cost of electricity is twice as high as the cost of the final product. Following metallurgy, heavy industry, mechanical engineering, oil refining, production of building materials, pharmaceuticals, chemical industry, etc. will suffer from the growth of tariffs for electricity, gas and metals.

Due to abnormal energy prices, dozens of energy and power supply companies began to go bankrupt. Expensive electricity, fuel and petroleum products have already led to an increase in prices for food grown in greenhouses, which, moreover, must be stored and transported. Cereals will rise in price next year.

Thus, the situation is very serious. Having started in the Old World, from an energy crisis it can turn into an economic one and spread to the whole world. Is it possible to fill it with gas from Nord Stream 2? Is not a fact. The complex of accumulated problems is already too complex and large for simple solutions.

Who is to blame?

Our detractors in the West point to Gazprom, which by its inaction is aggravating the energy crisis. However, these claims are not entirely substantiated.

At first, the Europeans themselves started an energy transition to renewable sources (RES), starting to abandon nuclear power plants and coal-fired generation.

Secondly, they themselves demanded that Gazprom switch from long-term gas supply schemes to short-term spot ones.

ThirdlyIt was Brussels itself and the leadership of individual EU countries that hindered the construction of Nord Stream 2 and the full operation of the first Nord Stream.

Among the objective factors that contributed to the formation of the energy crisis, it is worth mentioning the cold winter of 2020-2021, the low level of occupancy of European UGS facilities, as well as the rapid recovery of gas consumption in Southeast Asia.

Is Gazprom to blame? No, his actions, or rather, inaction, is just one of the factors that aggravated the problem. But is it possible to blame him for inaction, which is expressed in the unwillingness to increase gas pumping in excess of what is stipulated in the contract? The Russian company fulfills its contractual obligations, therefore, claims, in principle, can be ignored.

The mustaches themselves

Moreover, it is incorrect to accuse Gazprom of using gas supplies as a kind of "energy weapon", because Europe itself is doing the same. Less than a year after the UK's final break with the EU, Paris began blackmailing London. The Europeans recalled everything to the British: the problem of Northern Ireland, which was actualized after Brexit, and the refusal to provide French fishermen with fishing quotas, and “kidokas” with submarines for Australia. What have they done?

The fact is that the United Kingdom receives 12% of its gas and 10% of its electricity from its EU neighbors. They do not have enough of their own gas production for internal needs, they have to import the rest, and electricity goes through an underwater cable from France. Now the British were threatened to leave without these supplies, further exacerbating their economic problems.

The question is very serious. Contradictions are accumulating between yesterday's allies, and the conflict is rapidly growing. “Civilized” Europeans have clearly shown that the method of blackmail is also not alien to them. Where to them our "Gazprom" with its emphasized delicacy. All this cannot remain without consequences. Even if you start gas supplies via Nord Stream 2 right now, you will not be able to rewind it. Europe has changed, the masks have been dropped.