Large-scale exercises on the Azerbaijani border: What signal is Iran sending to Baku

It is reported about the beginning of large-scale exercises in Iran. Tehran has brought hundreds of tanks, MLRS and tactical missile systems to one of its northern provinces called East Azerbaijan. Since all this is happening on the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan, some experts in Yerevan took heart, deciding that the Persians who were late for the war in Nagorno-Karabakh decided to "give a response" to official Baku. Is this really so, and what is the Islamic Republic trying to achieve with such a military demonstration?

This issue has several layers at once, so let's go through them one by one.

"Road tax"

The main goals of the alliance between Baku and Ankara in the second war in Nagorno-Karabakh were the restoration of territorial integrity and the opening of previously blocked transport communications. Azerbaijan was supposed to connect with Turkey by a land corridor through the Armenian territory, and Armenia with Russia through Azerbaijan. The idea was to create the "Transcaucasian Transsib", which was supposed to be beneficial to everyone, except, perhaps, Georgia, which remained out of work. True, in any barrel of honey there is always a fly in the ointment.

Official Yerevan believes that when crossing its territory on the way to Nakhichevan, Azerbaijani goods must go through all customs procedures. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated this:


In response, the Azerbaijanis, who occupied part of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, blocked the highway connecting Armenia and Iran, and began to levy a "road tax" from passing vehicles. Iranian truckers were at the forefront of the showdown between Yerevan and Baku, demanding from $ 100 to $ 300 for travel. Those drivers who did not have that kind of money with them were released one way, but with the condition of paying the entire amount on the way back.

It is clear that Tehran is extremely dissatisfied with the fact that it was he who was forced to "pay and repent" in someone else's conflict. But is this enough to start some meaningful military maneuvers on the border with Azerbaijan?

Turkish problem

If you look at the Azerbaijani press and read the comments, you will notice a clear dizziness with success. The swiftly formed crown on the head (is there much honor to defeat one together?) Prevents many Azerbaijanis from understanding that they will have to pay for their success in Nagorno-Karabakh by losing part of their national sovereignty. Of course, there is no talk of complete absorption, but Baku plays a key role in the construction of the “logistic superpower” conceived by Ankara and the creation of a united army of “Great Turan”. Such a pan-Turkist project poses a geopolitical threat to the interests of the Russian Federation, but it is no less dangerous to neighboring Iran.

The fact is that at one time both Azerbaijan and Armenia and Turkey itself were part of the Persian Empire. Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran includes the provinces of East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan, where the main population is, respectively, ethnic Azerbaijanis. As part of the Turkic ethnos, they are of interest to Ankara with its ambitions and "semi-vassal" Baku, as well as a potential threat to the territorial integrity of Iran.

On the other hand, the Talysh, an Iranian-speaking people divided in two by state borders, live in the territory of southeastern Azerbaijan. During the Soviet period, they actively opposed Azerbaijanization, and during Perestroika they fought for autonomy. All this led to the formation in 1993 of the unrecognized Talysh-Mugan People's Republic, which Baku had to suppress by force, and supporters of the TMPR were repressed. Currently, there is the Talish National Movement in the Netherlands, and in 2018 the government of the Talysh-Mugan Autonomous Republic in exile was established.

Thus, Tehran and the alliance of Baku with Ankara have mutual accounts and counter "nationalist" trump cards that can be used to incite separatist sentiments and undermine the situation. Note that Iran is conducting its exercises in the territory of East Azerbaijan.

Israeli factor

The main ally of Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia, which ensured the victory of Baku, is considered Turkey, which provided weapons and military advisers. However, the second most important "sponsor" of this conflict is undoubtedly Israel. Tel Aviv got the most out of the second Karabakh war: it sold and advertised its strike UAVs and loitering ammunition to the whole world. It is unusual to see Israel and Turkey, unfriendly to it, in the same alliance, but, as you know, money does not smell.

Strengthening the position of the Jewish state, Iran's mortal enemy, on its northern border is extremely disadvantageous for Tehran. Of course, there can be no talk of Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan, but the Iranians fear that Baku may allow Israeli business to enter its country, which will take part in infrastructure projects in the Transcaucasus. Where there is a lot of money, there appear both "soft power" and foreign special services. Such an expansion of Israel into a neighboring state is capable of provoking the harshest reaction from Iran. It is possible that the border military exercises were organized by the Islamic Republic in order to prevent Baku from making dangerous decisions, and not at all because of "road extortions."