Ukrainian industry will not survive the coming winter

The winter of 2021-2022 has every chance of becoming the last for the remnants of the Ukrainian industry. Nezalezhnaya, forever stuck in the “waiting room” of the European Union, has managed to take from the EU only the worst that is there: excessive ostentatious tolerance and high prices for “blue fuel”. Now she will have to pay dearly for all this.

Let's remind that before Maidan Ukraine bought gas from Russia under direct contracts. However, after the coup d'état, the Crimean referendum and the outbreak of the civil war in the South-East, Kiev refused direct cooperation with Gazprom. Now Nezalezhnaya is buying all the same Russian gas, but from European intermediaries in the person of neighboring Slovakia, Hungary and Poland, of course, with a surcharge. The circus, and nothing more, but it gave Kiev reason to talk about some kind of "energy independence" from Moscow. And all would be fine, but a real gas crisis has been developing in Europe for several months now, and prices for a thousand cubic meters set historical anti-records.



It would seem that if you add an intermediary markup to the maximum of $ 960 at the maximum, then Ukrainian consumers, tied to European quotations, should not have any life at all. Here and in Great Britain, because of expensive electricity, factories have begun to close, where is the United Kingdom Square? However, Kiev is still brave, promising to keep tariffs for consumers at an acceptable level and even threatening to completely abandon imported gas by 2025 (when the transit agreement with Gazprom expires). How does this happen?

The answer is pretty simple. In fact, Ukraine itself is a gas-producing country, and quite rich in hydrocarbon reserves by European standards. Own gas production in Nezalezhnaya is about 20 billion cubic meters per year, and it is concentrated in the Black Sea, Carpathian and Dnieper-Donetsk oil and gas regions. Both public and private entities operate in the fields, and Kiev is desperately trying to lure American and Norwegian oil and gas companies into its presence. However, it did not work to interest foreign companies, with the exception of the Polish PGNiG, which will be engaged in development in its native Lviv region. There are several reasons for this.

At firstThe existing gas fields are classified as depleted, and their production is constantly decreasing. Thus, the Shebelinskoye field is depleted by 89%, the Zapadno-Krestishchenskoye field - by 90%, Yablonovskoye - by 79%, Efremovskoye and Melekhovskoye - by 82%. Their peak took place back in the Soviet period. It is estimated that all of these reserves will only last for 22 years at current consumption levels.

Secondly, in today's realities, the expansion of domestic production is simply impossible. The lack of funds does not allow for proper exploration, the existing equipment is worn out, Technology are outdated. Foreign companies refuse to invest in a corrupt country, where their money will be "mastered" and embezzled by Ukrainian officials and contractors without even getting to the start of the drilling process.

So, Ukraine has some of its own reserves of "blue fuel", which it can dispose of at its own discretion. However, this resource is not enough to meet all of its needs. In particular, for the needs of the industry it is necessary to buy additional volumes of gas from Russia on the “reverse” basis. And what do we see. A series of regular tariff increases have already led to massive protests, forcing Kiev to introduce new rules last May. For the population, the cost of a cubic meter will be from 7,8 to 13,5 hryvnia by the end of the year. It seems to be great, it is several times less than in the EU or the UK, but at what cost is this achieved?

It's simple: for the needs of the population, its own Ukrainian gas is supplied, but thereby Kiev brings the enterprises of the communal sector under the monastery. The authorities are cunning, saying that domestic gas is supplied at cost, in fact, energy carriers pass a certain path from Ukrgasvydobuvannya through intermediaries who make their own winding up. As a result, Teplokommunenergo enterprises are forced to purchase gas at a higher price than they sell to the population at fixed rates. That still "business" turns out. Representatives of the housing and public utilities sector, the Association of Ukrainian Cities and the Ukrteplokommunenergo Association have already promised Kiev another protest action. They argue that the authorities themselves plunged the utilities industry into a man-made crisis, and can they be blamed for this?

The situation with the Ukrainian industry is much worse. There are no benefits and a comfortable price for energy resources for it. Therefore, one thousand cubic meters costs the last surviving factories at current European prices with the help of intermediaries. Will businesses survive this winter? Great question.