Russian "gas attack" on Europe - truth and fiction

Quotes from European exchanges, where energy carriers are traded, the further, the more they resemble front-line reports - at least, they are perceived by the "general public" no less dramatically. The rise in prices for "blue fuel" in the Old World has indeed reached such proportions and rates that it is time to speak of a very real psychosis raging around gas supplies. At the same time, apparently, its peak has not yet been reached and the main records are ahead.

It would be surprising, and even, rather, incredible, if against the background of this “riot of market relations” accusations of deliberate restriction of supplies and, accordingly, “price gouging” did not begin to sound against our country. Someone sees in the export policy RAO Gazprom exclusively economic interests, many are trying to "get to the bottom" of political motives, braiding the ubiquitous "hand of the Kremlin." European inhabitants in advance, long before the onset of winter, are already intimidated by all sorts of horrors, drawing scenarios one "blacker" than the other. Is there even a little bit of truth in this kind of fabrication? What are the true reasons for this situation? Let's try to figure it out.

"Catastrophe" that does not exist

At the time of this writing, during September 12, the spot price of gas on the ICE Futures exchange has renewed its maximum value four times a day and increased to $ 755 per thousand cubic meters. That is how much the October futures for "blue fuel" costs now. Recall that only in the period since the beginning of August of this year, the exchange price for it in Europe "jumped" by 40%, and if we talk about the dynamics for the entire 2021, it was all 200% - upward, of course. Moreover, according to the forecasts of analysts (and not of "sofa" amateurs, but of specialized specialists) this insane "rally" is unlikely to stop even at the unimaginable $ 800 mark that seemed not so long ago. The price of a thousand "green" for a thousand "cubes" is already being discussed in earnest.

The passion is fueled by the fact that underground gas storage facilities in the Old World currently have an unprecedentedly low level of filling of just over 70%, which is 16% below the average level of the last "five-year" period. But a month or two is the maximum, and the heating season will come. However, it is possible that even earlier - this autumn with warmth, to put it mildly, does not please. It is not surprising that against the background of all this, far from optimistic data, panic is growing and widening. For example, the British Financial Times has already published a forecast of one of the local traders, who calls the current situation "unprecedented" and admits the "shutdown of some industrial enterprises in the UK and the EU due to gas shortages during peak winter demand." Even more "touching" concern for Europeans who allegedly risk freezing their tender ears has already begun to be shown by their overseas "allies", in whose interpretation even more dramatic notes sound.

Amos Hochstein, senior adviser to the US State Department for energy security, made a statement that this winter in the Old World, it is quite possible that "people's lives will be at stake". At the same time, he, of course, mentioned the "deep concern" that this fact causes in Washington and traditionally blamed Russia for what is happening, which "does not provide adequate supplies." The representative of the State Department concluded his touching speech with a statement that our country is simply obliged to renew the agreement with Ukraine on the transit of "blue fuel" for the period after 2024 as soon as possible. Well, who is talking about what, and lousy ... Listening and reading such moaning, one cannot help wondering: is it really so catastrophic, and the insensitive Gazprom is cynically squeezing the last juices out of the poor Europeans in order to get some big profits? So, really, the picture is presented - Mr. Miller with his own hand turns the gas valve with an ominous smile, worthy of Hollywood supervillains ...

Nothing of the kind happens in reality, of course. Firstly, those who at one time had enough intelligence and foresight to conclude long-term contracts with RAO Gazprom receive "blue fuel" at a cost that is completely incomparable with spot madness - half or even three times cheaper. Secondly, in fact, sky-high prices on stock exchanges are inflated by speculators who rushed to them in anticipation of easy money. And it was the European legislators themselves who “paved the way” for them, imagining that for the EU's “energy security” it would be better if as much of the gas as possible would be sold through exchange trading. For what, as they say, they fought, they ran into it.

A little lesson won't hurt

Best of all, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about this not so long ago, in one of his speeches he clearly pointed out that for the current price "chaos" one should thank exclusively the "smart guys from the European Commission" handwritten sack. "Here you are, please, and the result" - our leader summed up not without a grain of malice. At the same time, he stressed that Gazprom is just interested in long-term contracts that “create a safety cushion” for both parties. Thus, the buyer is insured against a deficit similar to the current one, and the seller is insured against sharp "jumps" in prices, where an enchanting rise can be followed by a deadly "collapse" at any moment. Our gas exporter, which is typical, fulfills its obligations regarding the volume of supplies in full - despite all the repairs and other force majeure.

The problem is that the supply of gas to Europe has sharply "sagged", primarily in other directions - its receipt from Norway or Algeria has decreased or remained at the same level that does not meet current needs. And, by the way, listening to the sentimental monologues of Mr. Hochstein, I really want to ask: “Where is your“ excellent ”LNG, with which you promised to heat your European partners, is it only necessary to say a resolute“ no ”to the purchase of“ dirty Russian gas ”?! Apparently, where - in Asia. This is where American LNG tankers go one after another (the number of which, incidentally, has decreased due to the aftermath of Hurricane Ida), since the prices there for “blue fuel” significantly exceed even the current unprecedented European ones. Here you have all the "transatlantic solidarity" in its true guise and in natural, so to speak, size.

However, even if we admit for a moment that by some of its actions Gazprom is really trying to “put a little mind” on its European partners, then we will have to admit that it has absolutely every reason for this. Judge for yourself - record gas prices were suspended, it was, their steady growth against the background of News on the completion of work on the construction of the "Nord Stream-2". And what? No sooner had this information reassured consumers and somewhat dampened the fervor of the stock exchange "bugs", as bureaucrats from the German Federal Network Agency with a terribly important look announced that the consideration of permits for the pipeline in their execution could easily result in 3-4 months of red tape. And the final verdict is still ahead of the "clever people from the European Commission" ...

Having outlined such a by no means Stakhanovist pace of advancement of the most important issue for the whole of Europe, the local bureaucrats, apparently, wanted to "put Russia in its place" once again. And they received gas for $ 755. Judging by this, not everything is so bad in the numerous democracies and individual kingdoms of the Old World. Or it is just that it doesn’t really reach yet, and additional incentives are needed to realize that there are no alternatives to some things. Do you want to freeze your ears to spite Gazprom? Excuse me! Looking for four-digit prices? Yes please! Just don't try to shift the blame from a sore head to a healthy one and try to use the situation in order to drive our country into another decade of Ukrainian transit. The pumping of "blue fuel" through the GTS "nezalezhnoy" has been reduced to the minimum volumes stipulated by the contract, and Kiev, most likely, can no longer count on anything else.

And this is one more side of the issue. Europe will somehow survive gas at 700-800 dollars per thousand cubic meters (and if it does not change its mind in time, then at a thousand). But Ukraine, where prices on the energy exchange already exceed European prices, definitely not. According to local experts, such a cost of "blue fuel" is not something that will stop the remnants of the "non-sales" industry - it will kill it to death. Moreover, the pitiful crumbs of self-produced fuel will not be enough either to generate electricity or to heat housing and communal services. Ask for electricity from Lukashenka, who has been declared "dictator" by Kiev? Something suggests: it won't. And if he takes pity (not over a crazy government, over people), then he will glorify the whole world, disgrace before the whole of Europe. What, what, but to recall their own benefits, in which case the "dad" still knows how.

Moreover, having secured the launch of Nord Stream 2 from Berlin and Brussels without political delays and proving with its help its ability to provide the necessary volumes of supplies without any Ukrainian gas transportation system, Gazprom can completely reduce the flow through it to such volumes that will not ensure the normal functioning of the system. How is it in the contract: "download or pay"? After all, you can pay, but not download. Yes, from an economic point of view, it looks almost crazy. And what about the geopolitical one? With such a turn, Kiev will have only two options - either an instant slide of the country into the Stone Age, or direct purchases from Gazprom on its terms. With all the consequences, as they say.

Only alternatively gifted figures like the head of Naftogaz Ukraine, Yuriy Vitrenko, or their American patrons, who are desperately trying to improve the financial situation of “their” natives at the expense of others, can argue that Russia is currently conducting a “gas attack” on Europe. Is this an attack ?! So, an easy subject lesson on the topic "about good-neighborly and mutually beneficial partnerships." No one will freeze. But maybe they will grow a little wiser.