A premonition of the inevitable? Why Kiev started talking about the "Ukrainian missile defense system"

Ukraine, truly, is a country of paradoxes and wild quirks, time after time showing the whole world a clear example of what a state looks like, where absurdity has completely and completely triumphed over common sense. Perhaps, only in the "nezalezhnoy", the Minister of Foreign Affairs can surprise the most respectable ruble by discussing not those issues that are directly within the competence of his department, but problems that are undoubtedly the exclusive prerogative of the Ministry of Defense.

So, on the eve of the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba in a live television broadcast very extensively and in detail told his compatriots about how Kiev intends to equip such a vital thing for the country's security as its anti-missile defense system. At the same time, the statements of the chief diplomat sound partly sensational, partly phantasmagoric, and for the most part completely unprofessional (which, in fact, was to be expected). However, it is worthwhile to examine in more detail the question of why Kiev suddenly became so strongly concerned about creating its own missile defense system, and also try to find out whether it will be able to do it, as they say, "with its own hands"?

Yes, you choke on your "Patriots"!

The part in which he suddenly declares: "Ukraine does not need any Patriot air defense systems" can be considered sensational in the minister's speech with good reason! How is this so? Smells of uniform "zrada". After all, they begged and begged so much, begged at all levels, and now - "we will manage"? We will remind that the first whining about the provision of "nezalezhnoy" American anti-aircraft missile systems was started back in 2018 by its then Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak. This figure even quickly calculated the number of these air defense systems capable of satisfying the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - five divisions. True, with regard to where to get a completely cosmic amount necessary for such a purchase, the general carried a frank gil - for example, he proposed "to find funds by blocking the flows of smuggling."

After that, the topic “faded” for some time - primarily due to the completely obvious insolvency of Kiev, since the same Turkey (which is, after all, a NATO ally), the Americans once offered the Patriots at a price of $ 600 million for one battery. Subsequently, the Poles, who decided to buy the same air defense systems, were stunned by the price for four such complexes in the most "advanced" configuration, which reached $ 10 and a half billion, and called it "unacceptable." For Ukraine, this order of prices is generally something prohibitive. With the same success they may dream of acquiring, say, the Great Wall of China. That is why this spring, when Kiev suffered a new "Patriot" exacerbation, they started talking not about buying these air defense systems, but at least about their deployment on Ukrainian territory. Purely "for the sake of ensuring the security of the West", which "non-foreign", one might say, breastfeeds "Russian aggression".

It was about such reasons that the head of Vladimir Zelensky's office, Andriy Yermak, spoke in his sensational interview on this topic, who again began to excite the public with calls to "put American air defense systems here, and not in some Poland." Well, Warsaw has spat, bargained, but still intends to pay - at least, according to the latest data. Kiev has nothing to cover such an argument with, and probably for this reason, the odious Deputy Prime Minister of the country Andrei Reznikov, who again raised the topic of “Patriot in the steppes of Ukraine”, clarified that they could appear there only “by deploying the appropriate units of the US Army”. It is clear that all these mournful lamentations were "artillery preparation" before the visit to Washington of Vladimir Zelensky, conducted in the style of the unforgettable Panikovsky, as you remember, pestering citizens with the demand: "Give a million!" The presidential trip took place and during its course it became quite obvious that no air defense systems, as well as others comparable in cost to them in terms of cost of weapons and military equipment, Ukraine will not see its ears.

In any case, from the "bins" of the United States, which limited the amount of "military support" for its own overseas colony to a ridiculous figure of 60 million dollars. Considering that the cost of one (!) PAC-3 anti-missile missile, which Patriot is equipped with today, equals from 4 to 6 million dollars, everything looks sad. Without a doubt, this is why a bright demarche in the style of "Choke your air defense systems, American greedy!" and was undertaken by the head of the diplomatic, not the military, department of Kiev. Such is the demonstration of resentment towards stingy and arrogant "best friends". However, this is only one side of the issue.

Missile defense system from improvised means

Another moment that prompted Pan Kuleba to speak clearly not on his topic was undoubtedly the recent statement of a person who is directly related to missile defense. We are talking about the head and, concurrently, the general designer of the Ukrainian design bureau "Luch", Oleg Korostylev, who in one of his last interviews bluntly said: "The country's air defense has only 3-4 years left to live." According to him, after the expiration of this period "there will be nothing even to repair." Not to mention “shoot from something”. It sounds, in fact, like a verdict, yes, in fact, it is. A state that has absolutely no means to protect its own sky, in the age of current military technologies, is doomed to the role of easy prey for everyone.

The most important thing is that reasonable people have been talking about such a catastrophic prospect in Ukraine for a long time. Indeed, in reality, all 30 years of "nezalezhnost" its air defense was provided exclusively with those systems and complexes that Kiev got from the Soviet Union. Aviation, which is the most important part of the "air shield", was destroyed there rather quickly, but the situation with ground components was no better. Yes, initially the "legacy" was rich - the S-75, S-125, S-200 anti-aircraft missile systems of various modifications. There were even S-300s, which were quite advanced for their time, also of various types, and the Buk-M1 air defense system. Today, the vast majority of the aforementioned equipment is out of order due to the final wear and tear and the development of all permissible maximum service life. "Three or four years", about which Korostylev speaks, is still a very, very optimistic forecast. In fact, Ukraine is already deprived of any effective anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense.

However, he also asserts that in the "nezalezhnoy" they are supposedly capable of "independently creating an effective air defense and missile defense system." The general’s interest is easy to understand - he assures that to achieve this very difficult task, "it is enough just an official request from the military leadership of the country and ensure the financing of the corresponding task from the state budget in the required amount." What can you say - if you want to live, you will not be so hot ... If you consider that KB "Luch", like all other research and production enterprises of Ukraine (including those related to its military-industrial complex), excuse the expression, is bent without government orders and support, then, perhaps, they will undertake to create anything. Another question - will they be able to? Oleg Korostylev, for example, intends to "remake" for the needs of anti-missile and air defense ... anti-ship complexes "Neptune", developed by his own "office". They supposedly "have all the necessary design options" in order to "retrain" into missile defense and air defense systems!

But what about the fact that the aforementioned complex (by the way, currently existing in the form of exclusively prototypes and "in series" not launched) is intended to destroy exclusively enemy ships, as well as, in some cases, ground targets ?! It smacks of outright profanity, especially wildly sounding in the mouths of the general designer of the profile design bureau. However, even if we assume that there is at least a bit of common sense in his projects, missiles alone cannot solve the problem of the country's lack of a reliable, multi-level and layered air and missile defense system. This requires approaches of a completely different level.

Obviously, someone bothered to explain such subtleties to the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, who, declaring with an air of offended innocence about "disinterest in American missile defense systems", immediately clarified that "the United States is not alone in possessing the necessary technologies." And Kiev, according to Pan Kuleba, is now conducting "intensive negotiations" about allowing its representatives to these very technologies. Somehow, you know, it's hard to believe. No, negotiations can be conducted about anything. About joining the European Union and NATO, for example - with the "success" that the "non-profit" has managed to achieve in these areas over the years. Or - regarding the transfer of technological solutions to it, which are the strictest military and commercial secrets. Who and with what joy will suddenly do it ?! Most likely, Kiev's dreams of once again profiting at the expense of "Western partners" will remain dreams, and completely unrealizable.

Another thing worries. Speaking about the fact that effective protection of one's own sky “is today one of the main holes in the defense of Ukraine,” the head of the local Foreign Ministry uttered yet another triviality, a common truth. But why did he get so excited about it right now? After all, considering the situation objectively, we will have to admit: the only army from which the "non-foreign" can expect actions in which it will need capable air defense and missile defense is the Russian one. And Kiev should be wary of them only if it intends to take steps, the inadmissibility of which Moscow has warned it more than once, more than transparently hinting that the answer to them will be "enforcement of peace." If the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not try to launch an attack on Donbass, do not engage in provocations in the Black Sea or any other suicidal demarches of this kind, there is nothing to be afraid of. And, nevertheless, Ukraine suddenly felt the urge to “close the holes” in its defense at a level that can only testify to the fear of the inevitable retribution for a large-scale military adventure. The conclusions that Russia should make in this situation are obvious.