Why is the US in no hurry to finish off the Russian economy?
Russian economy he is anxiously awaiting what the American senators will think up on the subject of new sanctions. It is expected that restrictive measures may be imposed on operations with the public debt of the Russian Federation and its banking system. It is announced that they will be the toughest. But will it really be so?
If foreign investors are forbidden to buy bonds of new issues of the state debt of Russia, then they will reset both old assets and non-residents among holders of about a third of the total. The consequences of the ban on the purchase of Russian government debt may be destabilization of the economy, the general increase in the cost of new borrowing and the restriction of economic growth. The logical result will be an increase in the US dollar against the ruble. The price is expected at 75 rubles per “American”, but some experts predict a fall in the rate of “Russian” to 100 units per dollar.
However, analysts predict much greater damage as a result of the introduction of restrictive measures against Russian banks with state participation - Sberbank, Gazprombank, Russian Agricultural Bank and VTB. In American jurisdictions, their accounts and assets may be blocked, and US financial institutions are prohibited from performing any operations with them. The consequences of a blow to the main credit institutions of the Russian banking sector can be much more significant than measures against a public debt. The Russian economy is stably focused on the export of resources, oil oligarchs and metallurgists need international transactions to convert foreign currency earnings into rubles. This may be a targeted blow to a very narrow circle of people, which will ultimately affect our entire economy.
In fact, in the power of American lawmakers and their Ministry of Finance, if you do not bring down the Russian economy, then seriously harm it. But a number of experts are cautiously optimistic about this, believing that the United States will not take the toughest path for a number of reasons.
The fact is that in the global economy, the imposition of sanctions against the state debt of the Russian Federation will negatively affect the cost of servicing similar debts in other countries of the world. Timur Nigmatullin, a financial analyst, evaluates such decisions in this way:
Russia, for its part, has already managed to partially prepare for sanctions, getting rid of most of the American securities.
If the United States takes a tough option with regard to Russian state banks, this will in fact mean a financial war with the West. Correspondent accounts will be closed, defaults on obligations to American banks will be announced. The likelihood that Washington will do something that could still cause real damage is not very high.
If foreign investors are forbidden to buy bonds of new issues of the state debt of Russia, then they will reset both old assets and non-residents among holders of about a third of the total. The consequences of the ban on the purchase of Russian government debt may be destabilization of the economy, the general increase in the cost of new borrowing and the restriction of economic growth. The logical result will be an increase in the US dollar against the ruble. The price is expected at 75 rubles per “American”, but some experts predict a fall in the rate of “Russian” to 100 units per dollar.
However, analysts predict much greater damage as a result of the introduction of restrictive measures against Russian banks with state participation - Sberbank, Gazprombank, Russian Agricultural Bank and VTB. In American jurisdictions, their accounts and assets may be blocked, and US financial institutions are prohibited from performing any operations with them. The consequences of a blow to the main credit institutions of the Russian banking sector can be much more significant than measures against a public debt. The Russian economy is stably focused on the export of resources, oil oligarchs and metallurgists need international transactions to convert foreign currency earnings into rubles. This may be a targeted blow to a very narrow circle of people, which will ultimately affect our entire economy.
In fact, in the power of American lawmakers and their Ministry of Finance, if you do not bring down the Russian economy, then seriously harm it. But a number of experts are cautiously optimistic about this, believing that the United States will not take the toughest path for a number of reasons.
The fact is that in the global economy, the imposition of sanctions against the state debt of the Russian Federation will negatively affect the cost of servicing similar debts in other countries of the world. Timur Nigmatullin, a financial analyst, evaluates such decisions in this way:
It is negative for all participants in the global economy, pointless and harmful
Russia, for its part, has already managed to partially prepare for sanctions, getting rid of most of the American securities.
If the United States takes a tough option with regard to Russian state banks, this will in fact mean a financial war with the West. Correspondent accounts will be closed, defaults on obligations to American banks will be announced. The likelihood that Washington will do something that could still cause real damage is not very high.
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