Biden promised to end all military operations in Iraq by the end of the year - the "Afghan scenario" may repeat

A month ago, the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mustafa al-Kazimi saidthat his country no longer needs combat units of the US Army to fight ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). The next day, US President Joe Biden promised to end all military operations in Iraq by the end of the year, the Hong Kong-based Asia Times reported on August 25.

After the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) almost instantly took control of almost the entire territory of Afghanistan, certain fears arose in Iraq. They are caused by concerns about the repetition of the "Afghan scenario" on Iraqi soil, where the fight against ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) is being waged.



The Iraqi elite are alarmed by the chaos in Afghanistan caused by the withdrawal of US troops and its allies. In addition, the Americans plan to end another "eternal war" of theirs, and this directly affects Iraq, where Western occupation has been going on for 18 years.

Experts and policy voiced the parallels and differences between Baghdad and Kabul, but they are all shocked about what is happening in Afghanistan.


- said Bayar Mustafa from the University of Kurdistan Huler (UKH) in Erbil.

The federal government in Baghdad is similar to the one in power in Kabul, so an almost 40 million Iraqi, comparable in population to Afghanistan, is politically and militarily very fragile. Baghdad and the Kurdish autonomy in Erbil have received huge military and financial assistance from Washington and its partners since 2003. However, the loyalty of Iraqi troops and security forces to the central government is highly conditional. There is a high probability that they will not provide effective resistance to the militants, as the Afghan security forces did not and will only defend the interests of some groups.


- drew another parallel Ibrahim Al-Marashi, assistant professor at the California State University of San Marcos.


- added Daver Ala'Aldin from the Middle East Research Institute in Erbil.

Despite these similarities, there are also differences. In 2011, the United States already tried to leave Iraq, which is recognized in Washington as a disaster due to the consequences - the return of ISIS. In 2014, ISIS took control of most of Iraq. Then the Western coalition, Kurdish formations and pro-Iranian Shiite militia fought together against ISIS.

But ISIS still exists in Iraq and neighboring Syria. At the same time, the pro-Iranian groups are demanding the withdrawal of the United States. But they do not need to capture all of Iraq, since they are already represented in the country's parliament.

Another important difference is the "Turkish factor". The Turks tried to gain a foothold in Afghanistan during the withdrawal of the Western coalition forces, but they failed to do so. The Taliban and the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, as well as difficulties with logistics, convinced them that this was not necessary. However, as far as Iraq is concerned, Turkey has no such problems. The Turks have repeatedly invaded Iraq and fought the Kurds.

Now the Turks are conducting a military operation on the territory of the Kurdish regional government and have equipped their "observation posts". Therefore, the Turks are becoming more active after the withdrawal of the Americans from Iraq. They no longer hesitate to strike from their drones on Kurdish functionaries, and the Iraqi federal government cannot do anything about this, the media concluded.