Who will get the richest bowels of Afghanistan

As soon as the dust settled behind the planes fleeing from Afghanistan with US and NATO servicemen, the natural question arose of what would happen next. The main intrigue is who will be the first to decide on the recognition of the government created by the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) and who will receive priority access to the subsoil and other resources that this country can offer. And there is something to see.

Their first researchers can rightfully be considered Soviet specialists who studied the natural resources of Afghanistan, despite the active hostilities. Geological maps were created, but no one had time to use them: our troops left, and soon the USSR itself collapsed due to a treacherous conspiracy in Belovezhskaya Pushcha. Subsequently, this intellectual property, retained by the Afghans, was transferred to the American occupiers after the start of the NATO intervention in 2001. The US Geological Survey conducted an initial survey from an aircraft, and then a three-dimensional integrated survey at promising areas. In 2009, a special Pentagon team flew to Afghanistan "on business projects in controlled territories" (what a telling name!), Which became extremely interested in the research results, conducted a second field check and received impressive data.



It turned out that the reserves of Afghan iron are estimated at $ 421 billion, copper - $ 274 billion, niobium - $ 81,2 billion, cobalt - 50,8 billion, gold - $ 25 billion and molybdenum - $ 24 billion. Also, this country has its own reserves of oil and gas, albeit not as colossal in volume as we would like, but the main wealth of Afghanistan, which can dramatically raise its status in the world arena from the poorest state to strategically important, is the lithium fields. Lithium is a key component in the manufacture of batteries for smartphones and electric vehicles. According to preliminary estimates, its reserves are estimated at $ 70 billion, but it should be borne in mind that American geologists were not able to survey all of Afghanistan. In terms of volume and convenience of location, lithium deposits are already estimated to surpass the Bolivian ones. And that's not all. The Taliban themselves talk about the possibility of extracting precious stones and growing on the ground not only poppy, which this group has declared war on:


All this is great, but there are a number of problems that can seriously complicate the development of Afghanistan's resources by foreign companies. Firstly, this is the complete absence of the necessary infrastructure, the construction of which will lead to an increase in the costs of any investment project. Secondly, политическая and military instability. The Taliban is still not recognized by anyone in the international arena, which means that there is no one to conclude agreements with yet. Thirdly, in Afghanistan, in addition to the Taliban themselves, other terrorist groups operate, for example, ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation). It should be borne in mind that the power of the Islamists is not at all strong, and the opposition will undoubtedly form in the country from those who disagree with the new order, which will be a destabilizing factor. Finally, it is worth remembering about the corruption factor that will inevitably be present in agreements at any level of government.

Thus, investment in Taliban Afghanistan will be high-risk. However, the game may be worth the candle. As the US and Europe have withdrawn themselves, three main contenders for this "virgin resource" emerge.

China

Undoubtedly, it will be Beijing that will play the first violin here. Back in 2009, the Chinese signed an agreement on the development of a copper deposit in Mes Ainak near Kabul. Despite this, the development has not yet begun, which has caused various rumors and speculation. Some experts believe that the case turned out to be not so profitable due to local corruption realities and incorrect calculation of the project parameters. Others hint that the Chinese, on the contrary, calculated everything very well and are in no hurry to develop. There is some logic in this assumption, since the PRC controls about a third of the global production of refined copper and is interested in maintaining high prices for this metal.

Recognition of the Taliban would open the Celestial Empire free access to all its resources, extremely cheap labor and the possibility of transferring harmful industries to this poor country. In addition to mineral resources, Afghanistan is beneficial to Beijing as an integral part of the "New Silk Road" from Asia to Europe and a "security belt" on the "road of life" from China through Pakistan to Iran, rich in hydrocarbons.

Turkey

Ankara quite rightly claims to play the second game. Turkish business has long and firmly established itself in Afghanistan, especially in the construction sector. Since nothing was reported about the humiliated flight of the Janissaries from the Kabul airport, it can be assumed that the Sultan Erdogan was able to reach some kind of compromise with the Taliban. If so, then Turkey can also gain access to Afghan resources. But this is also not all. Afghanistan can become a key point in the construction of the so-called Lazurite, or Jade, route between Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and further - with the entire Central Asian region.

Russia

For the national interests of Russia, the Turkish initiative is, of course, a serious threat. Afghanistan, meanwhile, promises benefits for Moscow as well. There are uranium reserves there that may be of interest to Rosatom, oil and gas - for Rosneft and Gazprom. You can sell grain, Russian weapons and military equipment to Afghanistan. machinery, which are appreciated and respected by the locals since Soviet times. This country lies on the path of the promising TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India. Russia is already participating in this project as part of the Pakistan Stream. Theoretically, Moscow, Ashgabat and Kabul can agree among themselves that the Turkmen and Russian gas instead of the European market go to the growing Pakistani and Indian, where prices are significantly higher than in the EU. So the Kremlin could knock the stool from under the feet of the "Sultan" Erdogan, who is trying to drag Turkmenistan into its "Turkic nets".

Many opportunities open up, and it all depends on who is smarter than playing the Taliban card in Afghanistan.