Ukrainian "joker": how Kiev can stop Nord Stream 2

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is almost completed, and the situation on the EU energy market is developing in such a way that it can start working this fall. However, things are not as simple as we would like, and the Russian gas pipeline still has many opponents. The German business publication Handelsblatt has compiled a whole list of seven points, each of which represents a "quest" for what else Gazprom will need to go through.

Let's try to arrange all these obstacles in order of increasing complexity for the Russian state corporation to overcome.

Ukraine

Kiev is one of the most important losers from the launch of Nord Stream 2. In 2024, the transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires, after which Nezalezhnaya has a chance to be left without gas at all. True, the likelihood of such a radical option is not too high, since both Germany and the United States are equally interested in preserving Ukrainian transit. If it were not for the position of Washington and Berlin, Kiev would not have had any chances of maintaining and extending the transit agreement with Gazprom. Neither politicalOr economic The Ukrainian authorities do not have leverage on the Kremlin, so we will place this country in the last place in our informal rating. However, under certain conditions, Nezalezhnaya can play as a "joker", which we will talk about at the very end.

Baltic States and Poland

They are by far the most loyal allies of the United States in Europe. These Eastern European countries have consistently opposed Russian gas projects in the Old World. However, the "Baltic Tigers" have short hands, but Warsaw has a successful experience of litigation with Gazprom and has already achieved partial blocking of the first Nord Stream on the Opal branch. It would be very imprudent for the leadership of the domestic monopolist to ignore the Polish factor in their calculations.

Europe and European bureaucrats

At this point, we propose to combine two factors at once, identified by Handelsblatt journalists as obstacles in the way of Gazprom: resistance to the Russian-German project by European officials loyal to the United States, as well as the amendments they adopted to the EU Gas Directive, chosen as a tool of pressure on Moscow ...

It is no secret that a significant part of the members of the European Parliament has a pronounced anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian position. Good news at the same time, the European Parliament decides little on this issue without having the appropriate powers. Another thing is the Council of the European Union, which has the right to impose sanctions and seek changes in general legislation. Amendments to the Third Energy Package, which left Nord Stream 2 without one pipe, is his doing. According to them, 50% of the pipeline's capacity must be reserved for some alternative supplier to Gazprom, and the owner of the pipeline cannot be its operator at the same time.

However, everything is not as bad as it could be. Thanks to the very strong position of Germany in the EU Council, Berlin was able to achieve the adoption of a softer scenario for changing energy legislation. For Nord Stream 2, there is a possibility of obtaining an exception from the norms of the Third Energy Package, if Germany herself wants it, and she is directly interested in this. In turn, Gazprom has already begun the procedure for re-registering the Nord Stream-2 AG gas pipeline as an independent operator. An option is not excluded with the creation of a virtual hub for the sale of "blue fuel" to European consumers right at the point of entry into the territorial waters of Germany. In an extreme case, Miller's team may even allow a rival Russian company, NOVATEK, to use 50% of Nord Stream 2's capacity.

USA

At this stage, Washington and Berlin have managed to reach an interim agreement on the future fate of Nord Stream 2. They provide for the binding of Gazprom to the use of the Ukrainian gas transportation system after 2024, as well as the possibility of shutting down the bypass gas pipeline, if suddenly Russia tries to use it as a lever of pressure on the “young democracy” in Nezalezhnaya. The United States is not interested in severing relations with Germany and the European Union, but if events develop according to radical scenarios, then Washington can unilaterally withdraw from the deal with Germany and impose sanctions against Gazprom and those European companies that cooperate with it.

Germany

Objectively, it is the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as a number of Western European countries, that are most interested in launching Nord Stream 2 at full capacity. Chancellor Angela Merkel staked on him in her political career and was not even afraid to quarrel with the White House, despite the fact that Germany is considered a de facto American-occupied country. Berlin is the main interest and defender of Nord Stream 2. However, much can change in a negative direction if the Greens come to power in Germany with their ultra-radical environmental agenda and reconsider their attitude to cooperation with Russia. The "green" Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany is practically a verdict for Nord Stream 2.

"Joker"

And here we again return to the half-forgotten Ukraine, which we put at the very bottom in this chain. Alas, Kiev can still play a decisive role in stopping Nord Stream 2 if, on the signal from Washington, it launches a large-scale military offensive in the Donbas. This will force Russia to intervene, which will immediately be declared Moscow's aggression against a sovereign state, and then, in accordance with the deal between the United States and Germany, Germany will be obliged to stop the bypass gas pipeline.