The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will play into Russia's hands
Today, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the new US sanctions against Iran will be even tougher than those that existed before the conclusion of the so-called "nuclear deal on Iran" (JCPOA) in 2015.
Although the Iranians do not state this explicitly, they will no longer comply with the conditions of the JCPOA already this year and will restore their uranium enrichment program to the level necessary to create an atomic bomb.
The new version of US sanctions will affect the Iranian auto industry, gold and other metals trading, Iran’s energy sector, hydrocarbon-related transactions, and transactions related to Iran’s central bank. Sanctions will also be extended to third-country companies cooperating with Iran.
Despite the fact that diplomats of all the leading world powers participating in the JCPOA, that is, Great Britain, France, Russia and China, sharply criticized the American decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal", and expressed a desire that the JCPOA would continue to operate even without the US, and The EU tried to create protection for its companies against American sanctions, it remained diplomatic gestures that did not have any consequences.
In fact, after the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, international business began to curtail cooperation with Tehran. In particular, the American companies Boeing, General Electric, Danish Maersk, French Peugeot and Total, Indian Reliance Industries and German Siemens have already left Iran. On August 2, the Russian PJSC Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, which was the largest supplier of rolled steel to Iran, in the amount of 440 thousand tons in 2017 announced a complete cessation of supplies to Iran.
Note that earlier Iran determined its willingness to remain within the limits of the JCPOA only if the European Union ensured the continuation of economic cooperation with Tehran, compensates for the stoppage of Iranian oil supplies to the USA with additional purchases, and also at the highest level declares condemnation of the American policy in relation to Iran. Obviously, not one of the Iranian conditions has been met, and Russian enterprises have begun to join the refusal to cooperate with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In early summer, Iranian statesmen threatened to respond to the resumption of US sanctions by a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, promising to completely stop the supply of oil on tankers from the Persian Gulf countries. Meanwhile, this threat is also nothing more than a gesture, no matter what the Iranian military from the Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and observers from Western countries think about it.
In fact, Iran is not able to carry out its threat. Indeed, in 1982-1988, during the Iran-Iraq war, attempts were made to attack against shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. For example, from April 1984 to December 1987, 451 attacks were launched against shipping, of which 283 were against the Iraqi Navy and Air Force, the remaining 168 were against the Iranian. Most often tankers were hit. Of the 340 damaged vessels, losses amounted to only 3%.
Iran managed to completely paralyze shipping only from the spring of 1987 to September of the same year, when the Iranians switched to mass production of mines in the water area. However, in September, after the arrival of international mine-sweeping forces, the strengthening of American groups that provided patrols in the region, opposing mine installations and escorting ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, control over sea communications was restored.
In fact, it is possible that Iran, with a good preparation for the blockade operation, is capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz for a period of no more than 1-3 months, after which the US Navy will be lifted.
At the same time, the escalation of tension around a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the operations of the blockade and US operations to protect shipping, will provide Tehran with an excellent cover for the resumption of the military nuclear program.
Although the Iranian equipment for uranium enrichment does not have great technical perfection, nevertheless, Iran has the necessary capacities and the number of centrifuges for a quick transition to the accumulation of material for the creation of nuclear weapons.
In Russia, this situation is more likely to be beneficial than not beneficial. Even if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts no more than three months, it will have a positive effect on filling the Russian budget with oil money. And the problems of the Americans in connection with the conflict with Iran and the appearance of nuclear weapons in that country will only expand the zone of diplomatic maneuvering of Russia.
Although the Iranians do not state this explicitly, they will no longer comply with the conditions of the JCPOA already this year and will restore their uranium enrichment program to the level necessary to create an atomic bomb.
The new version of US sanctions will affect the Iranian auto industry, gold and other metals trading, Iran’s energy sector, hydrocarbon-related transactions, and transactions related to Iran’s central bank. Sanctions will also be extended to third-country companies cooperating with Iran.
Despite the fact that diplomats of all the leading world powers participating in the JCPOA, that is, Great Britain, France, Russia and China, sharply criticized the American decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal", and expressed a desire that the JCPOA would continue to operate even without the US, and The EU tried to create protection for its companies against American sanctions, it remained diplomatic gestures that did not have any consequences.
In fact, after the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, international business began to curtail cooperation with Tehran. In particular, the American companies Boeing, General Electric, Danish Maersk, French Peugeot and Total, Indian Reliance Industries and German Siemens have already left Iran. On August 2, the Russian PJSC Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, which was the largest supplier of rolled steel to Iran, in the amount of 440 thousand tons in 2017 announced a complete cessation of supplies to Iran.
Note that earlier Iran determined its willingness to remain within the limits of the JCPOA only if the European Union ensured the continuation of economic cooperation with Tehran, compensates for the stoppage of Iranian oil supplies to the USA with additional purchases, and also at the highest level declares condemnation of the American policy in relation to Iran. Obviously, not one of the Iranian conditions has been met, and Russian enterprises have begun to join the refusal to cooperate with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In early summer, Iranian statesmen threatened to respond to the resumption of US sanctions by a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, promising to completely stop the supply of oil on tankers from the Persian Gulf countries. Meanwhile, this threat is also nothing more than a gesture, no matter what the Iranian military from the Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and observers from Western countries think about it.
In fact, Iran is not able to carry out its threat. Indeed, in 1982-1988, during the Iran-Iraq war, attempts were made to attack against shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. For example, from April 1984 to December 1987, 451 attacks were launched against shipping, of which 283 were against the Iraqi Navy and Air Force, the remaining 168 were against the Iranian. Most often tankers were hit. Of the 340 damaged vessels, losses amounted to only 3%.
Iran managed to completely paralyze shipping only from the spring of 1987 to September of the same year, when the Iranians switched to mass production of mines in the water area. However, in September, after the arrival of international mine-sweeping forces, the strengthening of American groups that provided patrols in the region, opposing mine installations and escorting ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, control over sea communications was restored.
In fact, it is possible that Iran, with a good preparation for the blockade operation, is capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz for a period of no more than 1-3 months, after which the US Navy will be lifted.
At the same time, the escalation of tension around a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the operations of the blockade and US operations to protect shipping, will provide Tehran with an excellent cover for the resumption of the military nuclear program.
Although the Iranian equipment for uranium enrichment does not have great technical perfection, nevertheless, Iran has the necessary capacities and the number of centrifuges for a quick transition to the accumulation of material for the creation of nuclear weapons.
In Russia, this situation is more likely to be beneficial than not beneficial. Even if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts no more than three months, it will have a positive effect on filling the Russian budget with oil money. And the problems of the Americans in connection with the conflict with Iran and the appearance of nuclear weapons in that country will only expand the zone of diplomatic maneuvering of Russia.
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