"Winter is Coming": Experts Expect an Absolute Record of Gas Prices in Winter

August 8 2021 20

There is a gas rally on the world markets. It is spurred on by small reserves of "blue fuel" due to the hot summer, the expectation of low temperatures this winter and the promotion of "green" energy (abandoning coal). Experts say that "winter is near" and expect an absolute record in gas prices in the coming heating season, Reuters reported.

Natural gas prices at TTF hub in the Netherlands, which is the benchmark for Northwest Europe, have risen 80% over the past three months, reaching a record high, while the cost of spot LNG in Asia exceeded an eight-year seasonal high (jumped by 32%). Traders think that average winter prices will exceed last year's peaks, when LNG soared more than 200% due to severe frosts in northern Asia.

According to analysts at the Dutch ING, UGS facilities in Europe are currently 50-60% full, up from 80% last summer. They explained that PJSC Gazprom has postponed the reservation of additional capacities for the transit of raw materials to meet demand, which increases the risks of price increases. Experts fear that Europe will enter the heating season with low reserves, which will contribute to high prices.

Russia is now the only country that has production reserves, but in order to increase exports, they need to reserve additional capacity through Ukraine. However, so far they have refrained from it.

- added gas analyst for US S&P Global Platts for EMEA, James Huckstepp, emphasizing that Platts Analytics adheres to an optimistic forecast for gas prices in the Netherlands until 2023.

The average price for a December LNG contract in Northeast Asia is about $ 17,65 per MMBtu and about $ 17,80 per MMBtu in January. At the same time, in December 2020, the price with delivery averaged about $ 11,50 per million BTU, and January goods - about $ 17 per million BTU.

Xi Nan, vice president for gas and electricity markets at Norwegian Rystad Energy, said that East Asian countries (Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea) shipped 18 million tons more in the first seven months of 2021 than in the same period last year. For example, Japan has increased its LNG imports to avoid an energy crisis due to sharp temperatures, and China is buying raw materials to meet peak demand in the southern regions and create reserves for the winter.

US natural gas futures rose to a 31-month high this week. Temperatures are expected to be above average until September, and storage levels are expected to be below the five-year average. Prices are projected to hold above $ 4 per MMBtu until March 2022.

This year, an additional 30 million tons of LNG are expected to enter the markets, but they will be easily mastered by the main consumers in Europe and Asia, who have yet to compete for them, the media summed up.

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123

+7

8 August 2021 14: 48

Gentlemen's million BTUs are certainly wonderful, we are more accustomed to thousands of cubes. The price has exceeded 550 dollars and it looks like this is not the limit.

And then there are intrigues in the Kremlin ...

The Ministry of Energy appealed to the government with a proposal to launch the process of introducing restrictions on the export of gasoline from Russia

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/12029185

It looks like Ukraine has a chance to become one of the world leaders in decarbonization. Looking forward to Greta's official visit this winter? Along the snow-covered streets of Kueva, local unharnessed lads stand on sledges pulled by Lapland reindeer on sledges and joyfully wave flags frozen to their palms. Just an idyll. The flags are the same, the deer are the same. Deep symbolism
1. Digital error
  
  -6
  
  8 August 2021 15: 09
  
  Quote: 123
  even in the Kremlin intrigues are being built
  
  This is temporary - to stabilize prices on the domestic market before the elections.
  Then again the budget will be replenished with excise rent - not only are the national projects stalled, but also the gasification of the entire country (to diversify exports) must be completed before Europe makes an energy transition and the flow of "gas" Eurodollars from there runs out.
  1. Just a cat
    
    +3
    
    8 August 2021 15: 33
    
    what has the Communist Party of the Russian Federation not provided with gas for 70 years of power, when everything was "national property"?
    1. Digital error
      
      -4
      
      8 August 2021 15: 49
      
      Quote: Just Cat
      has not provided gas for 70 years of power
      
      Maybe because Europe did not announce plans for decarbonization?
      There was where to sell gas. And in 20 years it will be necessary to replace the "lost" profit with something.
      1. Just a cat
        
        +1
        
        8 August 2021 16: 21
        
        Was it more important to warm Hans' ass in Germany than to conduct gas to grandma in a Siberian village? the proletarians of the whole world were fed at the expense of Russia? baboons organized aircraft construction?
        
        Digital error
        
        -3
        
        8 August 2021 16: 33
        
        I understand that you are outraged. But maybe it was necessary to moderate imperial ambitions, having 20% of world GDP? Than doing it now, having 2-3%. By the way, 10 years ago, world oil and gas prices were high - there was money and there were no sanctions. So why was the "general gasification" of citizens not announced even then - a high rating interfered, or were there enough allocations from the Hans?
        
        Just a cat
        
        +3
        
        8 August 2021 16: 48
        
        I did not ask the opinion of the slaves about the empire and the size of the GDP. I asked why the communists did not supply the country with gas in the first place. and nothing to do with decarbonization. it is the attitude towards the population. now Putin should take the rap for everyone from Lenin to Gorbachev? where was the gas while the villages were intact? and now it must be pulled when there is one pensioner living there? Putin did not promise socialism. and gas does not fall under decarbonization, besides there are Asian countries.
        
        Digital error
        
        -6
        
        8 August 2021 17: 05
        
        Quote: Just Cat
        I did not ask the opinion of slaves about
        
        And you, my friend, boor. You cannot agree with anyone with such an approach. However, with your EGO it is not necessary - and you will be a warrior alone in the field
        
        Bakht
        
        +3
        
        8 August 2021 17: 24
        
        When were the Yamal fields discovered?
        What is the "gas-pipe deal of the century"?
        What is one of the goals of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline?
        What is one of the goals of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline?
        The answers to these questions may shed some light on your question as well.
2. Digital error
  
  -5
  
  8 August 2021 15: 15
  
  Quote: 123
  It looks like Ukraine has a chance to become one of the world leaders
  
  Ukraine has already become a leader in the export of sunflower oil. The result is as sad as with Russian gasoline - domestic prices soared and exports had to be tightened until something came out
  1. 123
    
    +2
    
    8 August 2021 18: 51
    
    Ukraine has already become a leader in the export of sunflower oil.
    
    Not surprisingly, they are usually in the lead in something specific.
    Oil export and gas import are two big differences. So they sold what they could, here it is necessary to buy and, as a rule, money is needed for this.
    
    The result is as sad as with Russian gasoline - domestic prices soared and exports had to be tightened until something came out
    
    Do you want to say that all gasoline has been sold for export and that is why prices have flooded up?
    And who are these happy buyers who bought up all the gasoline from us?
    
    For 2020, the export of gasoline by + 12,4%, in general, the volume of export of petroleum products - 0,8%
    
    Prices are smoothly creeping up, no surge in 2020 is observed
    
    https://rosinfostat.ru/tseny-na-benzin/
    
    The share of gasoline in the export of petroleum products is not at all great, for example, the data for 4 months of this year. They export about 2 million tons. domestic consumption is about 35 million tons, 12% of 2 million tons. a drop in the sea.
    
    https://seanews.ru/2021/06/23/ru-neftejeksport-rossii-4-mesjaca-2021-uvelichilis-otgruzki-nefteproduktov/
    
    So the comparison with Ukrainian oil is not correct, it looks like it has worsened against the background of pre-election hyperactivity, look for a more painful bite, but somehow you don’t pull on a bull terrier , sorry for the comparison (nothing personal) rather like a lapdog. You will fly again with mandates, like plywood over the emigrant quarters of the French capital
    1. Digital error
      
      -1
      
      8 August 2021 20: 09
      
      Quote: 123
      why the prices flooded up?
      
      They make gasoline from oil. Maybe it's not enough for the refinery?
      
      Quote: 123
      Prices are smoothly creeping up
      
      That's it. And every year someone is outraged about this and instructs to deal with it. What to deal with then - with budget revenues from excise tax?
      
      Quote: 123
      The share of gasoline in the export of petroleum products is not at all large
      
      So what is the reason for the rise in prices then - in the greed of some producers, as the prime minister recently used to say?
      
      Quote: 123
      (nothing personal) rather like a lapdog
      
      Of course, nothing personal, in its pure form, a manual - to present those who disagree with the general line as something petty (bourgeois) marginal Nobody pretended to be a bulldog here, my ego is fine
      
      Quote: 123
      emigrant
      
      Everyone persists in advice In vain!
      By the way, they say, in one of the state corporations last month a poll was conducted - they say, are they satisfied with the country's top leadership, will you come to the elections and how you will vote. Why such polls - what do you think? In a couple of months, so we all will find out everything
      1. 123
        
        0
        
        8 August 2021 22: 18
        
        They make gasoline from oil. Maybe it's not enough for the refinery?
        
        Are you kidding me? Covid, oil sales have dropped significantly.
        
        That's it. And every year someone is outraged about this and instructs to deal with it. What to deal with then - with budget revenues from excise tax?
        
        Prices always rise and someone is outraged. That is life.
        
        So what is the reason for the rise in prices then - in the greed of some producers, as the prime minister recently used to say?
        
        There are many reasons that you are small, why should you chew it? From banal inflation to "greed". Are the prices growing only for gasoline and only with us?
    2. Digital error
      
      0
      
      12 August 2021 10: 11
      
      Quote: 123
      The share of gasoline in the export of petroleum products is not at all large
      
      The Russian government is considering the idea of introducing temporary restrictions on the export of gasoline from the country to stabilize the situation in the domestic market, the Ministry of Energy will submit proposals in the near future, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
      
      https://vz.ru/news/2021/7/30/1111627.html
      So the comparison with Ukrainian oil is quite correct.
      And the fact that today from this idea temporarily refused, says that even in the pre-election period they cannot afford to reduce tax receipts from excise taxes on fuel - the toad is strangling. Therefore, in public, it was decided to fight the "greed of individual producers" - let the refinery repair schedules be revised and they do not play much on the stock exchange. Laughter, and only
3. Just a cat
  
  +2
  
  8 August 2021 15: 30
  
  they will be fat on reindeer
  1. 123
    
    +3
    
    8 August 2021 15: 57
    
    they will be fat on reindeer
    
    The Swedes can afford it, but the local pedicabs are more suitable for those who cannot afford to jump on their own. It's time to change the symbolism
    1. Just a cat
      
      +5
      
      8 August 2021 16: 25
      
      unless the World Downs Society sues for the use of their flag.
4. General Black
  
  +1
  
  8 August 2021 17: 56
  
  Winter will show the plan.
Petr Vladimirovich

+1

8 August 2021 15: 03

Oh, what's going on ... (C)
Who is to blame for all climatic energy prices and other troubles?
That's right, highley like
kriten

0

9 August 2021 13: 01

For the past five years, the EU has been struggling with the supply of Russian gas to Europe. Either the prices were not determined that way, or they introduced restrictions on supplies. There were a lot of steps and they were successful. The price has more than doubled. You can congratulate Molodtsov. And since the EU bodies are headed by direct agents of the United States and working mainly for its benefit, then apparently they will receive a good reward from the owner for weakening his competitors.