The solution to the problem of Transnistria must begin with Ukraine

Apparently, the Transnistrian problem is returning to the agenda again. Maya Sandu, who won the presidential elections in Moldova in December 2020, was openly pro-Western and managed to concentrate all power in her hands by August 2021. And immediately she repeated the same political the slogan with which she conducted her election campaign: Russian troops and peacekeepers must leave Transnistria. However, Moscow adheres to a diametrically opposite opinion on this issue, which means that a new stage of confrontation is brewing.

The Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict has a long history, beginning in the late Soviet period. It worsened after the collapse of the USSR with the acquisition by Chisinau of "independence" and led to hostilities with numerous casualties on both sides. Those who did not want to go to the West and unite with Romania, the supporters of the "renewed Soviet Union" proclaimed in a referendum the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic (PMSSR), which in 1991 was renamed the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). Fighting between Chisinau and Tiraspol began in 1992 and became so intense that Russia was forced to intervene by sending troops and volunteers.



It is believed that since August 1, 1992, the conflict entered the stage of peaceful settlement, but it remains unresolved. The PMR remains unrecognized; in Moldova and Transnistria, two independent socialeconomic and political systems oriented, respectively, to the West and the East. Security is ensured by the Joint Peacekeeping Force, which includes our military, as well as observers from other countries. A huge problem is that Russia does not have a common border with Moldova and Transnistria, being separated from them by the hostile Ukraine. In addition, it is not clear what to do with the ammunition depots left on the territory of Moldova. After the collapse of the USSR, more than 300 thousand ammunition and various explosives were brought here. Most of the expiration dates have expired long ago, there is no way to dispose of it on the spot, and it does not seem advisable to export it through Independence. The warehouses have to be protected from theft by local Moldovan criminals also by the Russian military.

Thus, the scale of the problem is very large and there are no easy solutions. However, the new President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has a different opinion, and Chisinau insists on the prompt withdrawal of the Russian military from Transnistria:


Indeed, the positions of Moldova and Russia on this issue are directly opposite. Immediately after Mrs. Sandu's election as president, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on her obsession as follows:


But President Sandu appears to be serious. If six months ago she could only voice such initiatives, now she has received real political leverage. After the victory of the ruling party Action and Solidarity (PAS) in the parliamentary elections, Sandu's associate Natalia Gavrilitsa was appointed head of the Moldovan government. It should be noted that both of these women are politicians of a pronounced pro-Western wing. Maia Sandu is a Romanian civilian and holds a Master's degree from Harvard Institute of Public Administration. John F. Kennedy at Cambridge, USA, where she studied all the intricacies of management. Gavrilitsa also graduated from the School of Management. John F. Kennedy at Harvard University, later worked for the international consulting company Oxford Policy Management, was an employee of the World Bank and the staff of the European Commission. In general, this is one field of berries, and now they have all the power in Moldova in their hands. Cooperation with Romania, Ukraine, the United States and only after that with Russia are officially named as the priorities of Chisinau. So, what is next?

And then this "women's battalion" will have to somehow solve the problem with Transnistria, which stands like a bone in the throat on the path of Moldova's integration with Romania, as well as clearing the Dniester from the Russian military presence. Obviously, Sandu and Gavrilitsa can hardly be considered completely independent politicians, which means that decisions will be made for them in other offices. Some experts point to Berlin, but the trail leading to the White House seems to be more accurate. Given the nature of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States, one should expect an increase in the joint pressure of Moldova and Ukraine on Transnistria - from a complete economic blockade to a hypothetical military operation using the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The latter is still unlikely, but the likelihood of such a scenario still differs from zero. Transnistria is a real "Achilles' heel" for the Kremlin, because, unlike Donbass, the PMR does not have a common border with Russia, and the Russian Defense Ministry has no opportunity to quickly and secretly come to its aid. If Moscow had supported Odessa in 2014, the geopolitical alignments would have been completely different, but alas.

However, even hints of a military scenario when it is impossible to effectively respond to it are in themselves a powerful lever of political pressure. Who wants to lose face after being humiliatedly defeated in a remote theater of operations? Having become openly pro-Western, Ukraine and Moldova will now actively begin to play the "Transnistrian card", constantly checking how far they can go without consequences for themselves. Is there any way to prevent this? Yes, but for this the Kremlin will need to reconsider its attitude towards Ukraine. Having a reliable access to Transnistria, Russia can return to the agenda its old plan to federalize Moldova with the granting of autonomy to the PMR and Gagauzia and the deployment of our troops to ensure security in the region.