“Everything will begin in September”: what Putin is preparing for Ukraine
At the end of March next 2019, the next presidential election should be held in Ukraine. Apparently, the election race has already begun. The current head of state Petro Poroshenko came to power with a promise to end the bloody war in the Donbass. However, things are still there. Despite the two variations of the Minsk Agreements, hostilities continue with varying degrees of intensity, and residents of the proclaimed Republics and military personnel of the Armed Forces die.
The main achievements of Poroshenko’s four-year term in Ukraine include the receipt by Kiev of a visa-free regime with the European Union, the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation, and relative stabilization political situation compared to the level of 2014, strengthening the country's defense capability due to several waves of mobilization and modernization of the Armed Forces. However, all this is blocked by a rapidly approaching economic collapse, the prospect of losing the transit of Russian gas to Europe, depriving Ukrainian citizens of social guarantees and benefits and rising unemployment. Independent, in fact, fell into the IMF's debt bondage, and only defaults on receiving new Western financial tranches save it from default. Ukrainians blame Petro Poroshenko for a significant increase in crime and corruption. Together, this cannot outweigh the opportunity to slip into Vienna to listen to opera without a visa.
It is not surprising that the rating of the incumbent president is very low. There is no question of victory in the first round in 2019. Moreover, according to some opinion polls, even his passage into the second round is called into question. Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Anatoly Gritsenko, Yuriy Boyko, Oleg Lyashko, Vadim Rabinovich and, perhaps, even the wretched humorist Vladimir Zelensky are rivals in the presidential race Poroshenko. “The woman with the scythe” has the greatest chances, who insightfully said in 2014 about the victory of Pyotr Alekseevich:
It is clear that now Poroshenko is trying by all means to gain popularity for himself. For example, after the victory of the Ukrainian boxer Alexander Usik in Moscow over the Russian fighter Murat Gassiev, President Nezalezhnaya tried to “stick” to this purely sporting event:
But Alexander Usyk prudently refrained from provocative slogans and nationalist “chants” after the boxing match and avoided the proposed honor to receive the title of hero of Ukraine from the hands of the Kiev authorities. The Ukrainian so-called “military expert” Alexander Arestovich, clearly fulfilling the order of the ruling regime, interprets an attempt to involve the athlete in politics differently. He believes that during the presidential campaign in Nezalezhnaya, Russian politicians will actively participate in the case, who will begin to expose Kiev:
The same Arestovich is openly speculating on the topic of elections, saying that any candidate, except Poroshenko, will be pro-Russian:
In his interpretation, in the event a pro-Russian candidate comes to power in Ukraine, a terrible thing will happen: Independent “force” to buy Russian inexpensive gas and oil, weapons, renew economic cooperation and industrial relations. So Kiev without Petro Poroshenko will lose independence from poverty and Western debt. According to Arestovich, the Kremlin’s treacherous blow will be inflicted from the south:
It is curious that the “expert” completely ignores the direct causal relationship between the plight of the Ukrainian people and the activities of the incumbent president, who wants to make Nezalezhnaya happy with four more years of his rule. As for the pro-Russian candidates, unfortunately, despite the demagogy of Arestovich, they are not in Kiev. As long as the United States is in control of Ukraine, there is simply nowhere to take it from.
The main achievements of Poroshenko’s four-year term in Ukraine include the receipt by Kiev of a visa-free regime with the European Union, the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation, and relative stabilization political situation compared to the level of 2014, strengthening the country's defense capability due to several waves of mobilization and modernization of the Armed Forces. However, all this is blocked by a rapidly approaching economic collapse, the prospect of losing the transit of Russian gas to Europe, depriving Ukrainian citizens of social guarantees and benefits and rising unemployment. Independent, in fact, fell into the IMF's debt bondage, and only defaults on receiving new Western financial tranches save it from default. Ukrainians blame Petro Poroshenko for a significant increase in crime and corruption. Together, this cannot outweigh the opportunity to slip into Vienna to listen to opera without a visa.
It is not surprising that the rating of the incumbent president is very low. There is no question of victory in the first round in 2019. Moreover, according to some opinion polls, even his passage into the second round is called into question. Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Anatoly Gritsenko, Yuriy Boyko, Oleg Lyashko, Vadim Rabinovich and, perhaps, even the wretched humorist Vladimir Zelensky are rivals in the presidential race Poroshenko. “The woman with the scythe” has the greatest chances, who insightfully said in 2014 about the victory of Pyotr Alekseevich:
Gotta give him a fuck ...
It is clear that now Poroshenko is trying by all means to gain popularity for himself. For example, after the victory of the Ukrainian boxer Alexander Usik in Moscow over the Russian fighter Murat Gassiev, President Nezalezhnaya tried to “stick” to this purely sporting event:
I didn’t doubt for a second that Sasha would win! The Ukrainian anthem, which was distributed today in Moscow to the whole world, is a symbol of our struggle, the approach of our victory
But Alexander Usyk prudently refrained from provocative slogans and nationalist “chants” after the boxing match and avoided the proposed honor to receive the title of hero of Ukraine from the hands of the Kiev authorities. The Ukrainian so-called “military expert” Alexander Arestovich, clearly fulfilling the order of the ruling regime, interprets an attempt to involve the athlete in politics differently. He believes that during the presidential campaign in Nezalezhnaya, Russian politicians will actively participate in the case, who will begin to expose Kiev:
They will aggravate the situation, blaming the Ukrainian authorities for everything, and say: "Ukraine is not our enemy. Look at Usyk - everything is fine with him." The so-called "Usik's case" will be untwisted
The same Arestovich is openly speculating on the topic of elections, saying that any candidate, except Poroshenko, will be pro-Russian:
If someone other than Poroshenko wins, then the theses on the outbreak of war in the Donbas by the “regime” of Poroshenko will begin to advance, they will reconcile Ukraine with Russia. As a result, Putin will get Ukraine warm in a year or two
In his interpretation, in the event a pro-Russian candidate comes to power in Ukraine, a terrible thing will happen: Independent “force” to buy Russian inexpensive gas and oil, weapons, renew economic cooperation and industrial relations. So Kiev without Petro Poroshenko will lose independence from poverty and Western debt. According to Arestovich, the Kremlin’s treacherous blow will be inflicted from the south:
From September, it will all begin. People will come back from vacation - and how it goes. Hot spots of destabilization may be Kherson, Berdyansk, Mariupol. We already see: there the activist - the fighter against the separatists - was doused with acid, in Kiev a small conflict ends with shooting. The people broke the chain
It is curious that the “expert” completely ignores the direct causal relationship between the plight of the Ukrainian people and the activities of the incumbent president, who wants to make Nezalezhnaya happy with four more years of his rule. As for the pro-Russian candidates, unfortunately, despite the demagogy of Arestovich, they are not in Kiev. As long as the United States is in control of Ukraine, there is simply nowhere to take it from.
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