Coming soon: 100 rubles per dollar
August 2018 does not bode well for the Russian currency. The ruble is falling and will continue to fall. Analysts compete in the pessimism of forecasts: who calls the level of 74 rubles for one "American", and who all 100!
And what’s the most unpleasant, once again you can see how much Russian economy depends on the processes taking place far beyond the ocean at our geopolitical opponents. The US toolkit for a country with a peripheral capitalist economy built on the export of natural resources is very wide. They can consciously ruin us with a new package of preparing anti-Russian sanctions. But it can also happen “on its own” as a result of the actions of the notorious Federal Reserve System, which can simply increase the rate.
It is reported that as early as September, the US Federal Reserve may increase the key rate. It would seem, what does Russia have to do with it? But Russia, like the rest of the world, uses the American national currency in its calculations. By raising the key rate, the Federal Reserve entices investors, forcing them to sell bonds in emerging markets, such as the Russian one, and transfer the proceeds to American securities and US banks, which will increase their rate after the Fed. It is forecasted that the Fed rate will double by the end of this year, and also continue to grow in the next two years. For the American economy, this means consistent growth, however, there is a danger of rising inflation. For developing countries, like the Russian Federation, this will have a negative effect in the form of a fall in their national currencies against the US dollar.
Washington is also capable, if it wants, to purposefully collapse the Russian ruble by imposing sanctions on the state debt of our country. The ban on owning and acquiring Russian government bonds will instantly lead to the outflow of all types of assets from the national economy, and on a large scale. Analysts predict that the ruble will automatically fall in the range from 5% to 15%, i.e. up to 70 rubles per “American”. Skeptical realists give even more negative predictions:
They indicate that in April the national currency fell by 10%, despite the fact that sanctions were imposed against only a few companies. If the sanctions are against Russian public debt in general, foreigners will leave our economy. Moreover, if the federal loan market collapses, then other markets will follow. The ruble still held during the World Cup in Russia, but now the tale is over. In addition to US sanctions, there are other factors affecting the Russian currency, such as the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as well as oil prices and the situation with Iran.
So far, analysts have been reassuring that the US Senate cannot take sanctions until September, and prices will be in the range of 54-66 rubles per dollar. Nodding to American lawmakers in itself is humiliating, but extremely revealing. Apparently, in the framework of the capitalist system, there is no need to talk about any real sovereignty of the Russian economy.
And what’s the most unpleasant, once again you can see how much Russian economy depends on the processes taking place far beyond the ocean at our geopolitical opponents. The US toolkit for a country with a peripheral capitalist economy built on the export of natural resources is very wide. They can consciously ruin us with a new package of preparing anti-Russian sanctions. But it can also happen “on its own” as a result of the actions of the notorious Federal Reserve System, which can simply increase the rate.
It is reported that as early as September, the US Federal Reserve may increase the key rate. It would seem, what does Russia have to do with it? But Russia, like the rest of the world, uses the American national currency in its calculations. By raising the key rate, the Federal Reserve entices investors, forcing them to sell bonds in emerging markets, such as the Russian one, and transfer the proceeds to American securities and US banks, which will increase their rate after the Fed. It is forecasted that the Fed rate will double by the end of this year, and also continue to grow in the next two years. For the American economy, this means consistent growth, however, there is a danger of rising inflation. For developing countries, like the Russian Federation, this will have a negative effect in the form of a fall in their national currencies against the US dollar.
Washington is also capable, if it wants, to purposefully collapse the Russian ruble by imposing sanctions on the state debt of our country. The ban on owning and acquiring Russian government bonds will instantly lead to the outflow of all types of assets from the national economy, and on a large scale. Analysts predict that the ruble will automatically fall in the range from 5% to 15%, i.e. up to 70 rubles per “American”. Skeptical realists give even more negative predictions:
Waiting for 70 rubles per dollar under the toughest sanctions is even optimistic. In fact, the Russian currency can easily rebound to 100 rubles per dollar
They indicate that in April the national currency fell by 10%, despite the fact that sanctions were imposed against only a few companies. If the sanctions are against Russian public debt in general, foreigners will leave our economy. Moreover, if the federal loan market collapses, then other markets will follow. The ruble still held during the World Cup in Russia, but now the tale is over. In addition to US sanctions, there are other factors affecting the Russian currency, such as the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as well as oil prices and the situation with Iran.
So far, analysts have been reassuring that the US Senate cannot take sanctions until September, and prices will be in the range of 54-66 rubles per dollar. Nodding to American lawmakers in itself is humiliating, but extremely revealing. Apparently, in the framework of the capitalist system, there is no need to talk about any real sovereignty of the Russian economy.
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