Russia does not have such missiles, and is not expected
In the next decade, the Russian space industry will face serious competition. More than a dozen new medium-heavy, heavy and super-heavy launch vehicles will appear in the world. Our rivals will be not only traditionally Americans and Europeans, but also Chinese and Japanese. And, unfortunately, so far our prospects are not as good as is commonly believed.
Russian missiles remain disposable, while new-generation launch vehicles developed in the United States of America are created as reusable or partially reusable. Also, unfortunately, domestic products remain more archaic: in fact, we are talking only about the deep modernization of old Soviet engines. Kerosene will be used as fuel in the widely publicized Angara, which is a big step forward in avoiding toxic heptyl. But in the US, rocket engines are being actively developed on a more promising and high-quality fuel in the form of methane and hydrogen. In Russia, the creation of their own analogue of a methane engine has just begun, and the first results can be expected no earlier than in 3-4 years.
What will Roskosmos really demonstrate in the next decade?
At first, this is the Angara rocket family. The advantages include the modularity of its design and greater environmental friendliness, compared to the old "Protons". The disadvantages are a greater cost than a direct competitor in the person of Falcon 9, and a small “plaque”. Its engines are a modernization of the old RD-170, in fact, a more simplified version of the RD-180 that they sell to the Americans.
SecondlyThis is Soyuz-5, also the modernization of Soviet developments. The launch cost is estimated at $ 35 million; it will be able to launch up to 18 tons into orbit. It is assumed that its first stage will be used to create a Russian heavy-class rocket. It is obvious that Soyuz-5 and Angara will be the main workhorses of Roscosmos for many years.
What can competitors oppose?
Most US space projects:
Boeing Corporation is developing a superheavy rocket SLS with an aim to reach the moon and Mars. SLS is expected to be widely used for NASA missions. The first flight is scheduled for 2020.
Private American company Blue Origin is creating a rocket called New Glenn. Its carrying capacity will be 45 tons. Already signed 8 contracts for commercial launches.
The main competitor of Blue Origin is SpaceX. The company Ilona Mask creates a heavy Falcon Heavy rocket, as well as a superheavy Big Falcon Rocket. It was announced that the latter will be able to comfortably deliver up to hundreds of passengers to the moon or Mars. The first launch is scheduled for 2022.
The United Lauhch Alliance is preparing a partially reusable Vulcan rocket. Its carrying capacity will be 40 tons. Start is expected in 2020.
The American company Orbital ATK is making the OmegA modular rocket in order to grab its portion of the launch orders from the Pentagon. It will be able to launch up to 8 tons of payload into a geo-transition orbit.
Europeans are preparing a promising Ariane 6 launch vehicle in medium and heavy configurations. The result will be the rejection of the use of Russian Soyuz-ST-B.
The Japanese are developing a rocket under the H3 index with a carrying capacity of 6,5 tons. She will fly in 2020.
A very ambitious project is being developed in China. The Long March 9 rocket will bring up to 140 tons into near-Earth orbit, and fifty tons into geostationary orbit. The Chinese will test their super-heavy missile in 2020 already.
Obviously, the space market is becoming very, very crowded.
Russian missiles remain disposable, while new-generation launch vehicles developed in the United States of America are created as reusable or partially reusable. Also, unfortunately, domestic products remain more archaic: in fact, we are talking only about the deep modernization of old Soviet engines. Kerosene will be used as fuel in the widely publicized Angara, which is a big step forward in avoiding toxic heptyl. But in the US, rocket engines are being actively developed on a more promising and high-quality fuel in the form of methane and hydrogen. In Russia, the creation of their own analogue of a methane engine has just begun, and the first results can be expected no earlier than in 3-4 years.
What will Roskosmos really demonstrate in the next decade?
At first, this is the Angara rocket family. The advantages include the modularity of its design and greater environmental friendliness, compared to the old "Protons". The disadvantages are a greater cost than a direct competitor in the person of Falcon 9, and a small “plaque”. Its engines are a modernization of the old RD-170, in fact, a more simplified version of the RD-180 that they sell to the Americans.
SecondlyThis is Soyuz-5, also the modernization of Soviet developments. The launch cost is estimated at $ 35 million; it will be able to launch up to 18 tons into orbit. It is assumed that its first stage will be used to create a Russian heavy-class rocket. It is obvious that Soyuz-5 and Angara will be the main workhorses of Roscosmos for many years.
What can competitors oppose?
Most US space projects:
Boeing Corporation is developing a superheavy rocket SLS with an aim to reach the moon and Mars. SLS is expected to be widely used for NASA missions. The first flight is scheduled for 2020.
Private American company Blue Origin is creating a rocket called New Glenn. Its carrying capacity will be 45 tons. Already signed 8 contracts for commercial launches.
The main competitor of Blue Origin is SpaceX. The company Ilona Mask creates a heavy Falcon Heavy rocket, as well as a superheavy Big Falcon Rocket. It was announced that the latter will be able to comfortably deliver up to hundreds of passengers to the moon or Mars. The first launch is scheduled for 2022.
The United Lauhch Alliance is preparing a partially reusable Vulcan rocket. Its carrying capacity will be 40 tons. Start is expected in 2020.
The American company Orbital ATK is making the OmegA modular rocket in order to grab its portion of the launch orders from the Pentagon. It will be able to launch up to 8 tons of payload into a geo-transition orbit.
Europeans are preparing a promising Ariane 6 launch vehicle in medium and heavy configurations. The result will be the rejection of the use of Russian Soyuz-ST-B.
The Japanese are developing a rocket under the H3 index with a carrying capacity of 6,5 tons. She will fly in 2020.
A very ambitious project is being developed in China. The Long March 9 rocket will bring up to 140 tons into near-Earth orbit, and fifty tons into geostationary orbit. The Chinese will test their super-heavy missile in 2020 already.
Obviously, the space market is becoming very, very crowded.
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