Turkmenistan will be the first country to strike the Taliban

According to the militants of the Taliban, banned in the Russian Federation, about 85% of the territory of Afghanistan is under its control today. In order to become the only real legal force in the country and achieve legalization in the eyes of the world community, this group first needs to take Kabul, eliminating the dual power that is dangerous for it. On this issue, the position of Turkey, which supports the Afghan government and does not intend to simply withdraw its troops after the NATO allies, presents a certain problem for the Taliban. But what will happen after the Taliban and the Sultan still reach some kind of compromise, will the expansion of the ideas of radical Islam go outside?

This question is far from idle and worries all of Afghanistan's neighbors. The Taliban leadership, whose representatives recently flew to Moscow for talks, claim that they are all tired of the war and are only interested in the internal affairs of their country, which has barely managed to get rid of foreign occupiers. But the problem is that the group is far from united and not monolithic in its views and moods. This was confirmed by the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation Zamir Kabulov:

The movement does not stand still, the third and fourth generations of young passionary fighters appear who have never lived in a free, calm, unoccupied Afghanistan. And they are convinced that they are fighting for the liberation of their homeland from the occupiers and for the values ​​of Islam as they see them. This part of the movement is radically tuned, it is they who are now dying in hostilities.

And what will all these radical passionaries do when there is no one else to fight in Afghanistan itself? Where will they go then? The easiest seems to be the direction north to the former Soviet republics of Central Asia - Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. And Turkmenistan appears to be the weakest link in this chain.

The army of Tajikistan is objectively very weak. Its number is formally estimated at 8,8 thousand people, mostly poorly trained and poorly motivated, and another 7,5 thousand of the National Guard. By inheritance from the USSR, Dushanbe did not receive any huge military arsenals, like Nezalezhnaya. Armored forces include 30 T-72 units and 7 T-62 units, 23 infantry fighting vehicles and 23 Soviet-made armored personnel carriers. The Air Force does not have a single combat aircraft, there are only a few Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters. It can be concluded that the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Tajikistan is purely symbolic, and the real defense of the country is provided only by the Russian army, which is based on the 201st military base. Membership in the CSTO is the only guarantee of Dushanbe's security against a possible expansion of the Taliban militants.

Things are a little better in Uzbekistan. With a total number of 48 thousand people, 24,5 thousand serve in the Ground Forces. Each of the military districts has its own army brigade (motorized rifle, tank or airborne assault), fully staffed. Tank forces include 70 T-72 units, 100 T-74 units and 170 T-62 units, as well as 270 BPM-2 units. More impressive than that of Tajikistan. In addition, Tashkent has its own air force, including the MiG-29 / -29UB squadron, the Su-27 / -27UB squadron, the Su-24 bomber aviation regiment, two Su-25 / -25BM assault squadrons, the An-24, C295W and Tu -134, as well as two helicopter brigades Mi-24, Mi-26, Mi-8. In the post-Soviet space, the Uzbek army is in fourth place in power after the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Belarus, so it has something to meet the Taliban with. Note that this country is currently not a member of the CSTO.

Despite this, Moscow is ready to provide assistance to both Central Asian republics. Together with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Russian troops are preparing to conduct large-scale military exercises on the border with Afghanistan, aimed at eliminating bandit formations and ensuring territorial integrity. To fight against ground targets, a link of Su-25SM attack aircraft was sent. Such a bold hint to the Taliban leadership. And what, then, is left to the lot of young and audacious religious extremists?

That's right, Turkmenistan, the most closed of the former Soviet national republics. This country, which is not a member of the CSTO, in a sense has itself become a hostage of its "neutral status". With a number of 36,5 thousand, the Turkmen army consists mainly of conscripts, poorly trained and poorly motivated. This negates the importance of a considerable number of armored vehicles in service with the Ground Forces: 650 T-72 units and 4 T-90S units, as well as 650 BMP-1, 430 BMP-2, 300 BTR-70 and 450 BTR-80. Judging by the fact that Ashgabat strengthened mainly the Air Force and the Navy, since it was more interested in consolidating itself in the Caspian Sea, which is rich in natural resources. The aviation of Turkmenistan is represented by age-old Soviet aircraft, and the military fleet is represented by patrol and missile boats.

Five years ago, against the backdrop of the successes of the armed groups of Islamists in neighboring Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan already conducted demonstration military tactical exercises on the border. Even then, in 2016, military expert Khalmurad Soyunov pointed out the weakness of the Turkmen army and the fact that “sleeping” terrorist cells are even more dangerous than external aggression for this closed country:

The army of Turkmenistan, according to military estimates, is a weak link, it will not be able to resist even a thousand militants. After all, networks have already been created inside Turkmenistan, cells of underground Islamists, who are waiting in the wings.

It can be assumed that the most likely direction for religious extremists will be neighboring gas-rich and having access to the Caspian, but at the same time weak Turkmenistan, which is the most distant from Russia of all the former Soviet republics.
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  1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 23 July 2021 17: 21
    Well, let's say a thousand Iranian-speaking militants drove into Ashgabat in American carts. And then what?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 July 2021 08: 21
      A thousand fighters are an external force. And how many internal cells in Turkmenistan are there? groupings? Do you think everyone likes living under a personalist dictatorship? There is undoubtedly a hidden opposition. There are militants who have gone through hot spots in other countries, there are underground networks. Experts have been talking about this in plain text for many years.
      If the government collapses under an external blow, an internal conflict will begin to seize it, and the Turkmen extremists themselves will have a reliable rear and assistance in the form of Afgan. If they gain the upper hand, Turkmenistan could become a branch of Islamist Afghanistan.
      An absolutely real scenario.
      1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 24 July 2021 09: 16
        In the country under Turkmenbashi, and even now, there is a rather peculiar system, autocracy with elements of socialism, while the raw materials economy is completely closed to China.
        How events will develop, Allah alone knows fellow
  2. YES UZH Offline YES UZH
    YES UZH (YES) 23 July 2021 17: 30
    Come on, there are so many fighters in Moscow, every week of the battle, while between the migrants at the markets in the wastelands. You can collect such an army in strikes and gardening. On holidays, the streets are packed and the metro stations near the mosques.
  3. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 23 July 2021 17: 32
    100 units of T-74

    Surprised belay asked Google ...

    You can be calm for Uzbekistan laughing
    Sounds like a typo? If so, please correct, and my comment is probably for junk ...
    And Turkmenistan is probably a candidate .. for joining the CSTO.
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 23 July 2021 18: 57
    The Taliban are Pashtuns. And they are unlikely to climb into Turkmenistan. ISIS members, whom the Americans brought there from Syria, can move there. It's all the same where to climb, as long as they pay.
    And the Pashtuns have their own affairs, their own tasks. On the contrary, there is a certainty that they will calm down ISIS in Afghanistan.
    Pashtuns need to earn legalization in the world community. Expansion to Turkmenistan is a bad idea for this.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 July 2021 08: 17
      How true. But once again carefully read the quote from Kabulov's special envoy from Kabul. The Taliban are not monolithic, part of the movement, young and daring, who only know how to fight, want to fight further. It is only older comrades who are ready to stop and build a country of victorious Islamism.
  5. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 23 July 2021 21: 17
    Have you tried guessing on a camomile? I don't like this kind of fortune-telling. Intelligence must work for us. And in the case of preparing for an attack, strike a preemptive strike. There is no need to be shy here. In general, it is better to create from the Afghans themselves an alternative government to the Taliban and support them. And let them fight among themselves. Then the "chamomile" is not needed.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 July 2021 08: 15
      This is not a fortune-telling, but the result of a preliminary analysis. Turkmenistan is the simplest and most promising direction for an offensive, on others they will be met with the help of Russia.
      1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
        steelmaker 24 July 2021 10: 20
        preliminary analysis.

        Yes, I do not mind. Only these analyzes should be done by the authorities. And with us, as usual: "Until the thunder breaks out, the man does not cross himself." Mediocrity rule! There have been talks for a long time about the withdrawal of troops from Afgan. And the authorities should have started guessing on the "camomile" long ago. And now the throwing from "side to side" is going on.
  6. Andrey_3 Offline Andrey_3
    Andrey_3 ( Andrew) 23 July 2021 21: 48
    Nonsense. Why would Afghans go anywhere? What is the motive? Where does the supply come from? Weapon? Ammunition? And what is not immediately to Stockholm? Or to America across the North Pole?
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 July 2021 08: 14
      Well, of course de, nonsense. Why would religious extremists, who want to build their own state, go somewhere there? Why do they need new territories, rich in gas, and access to any kind, but the sea. Nonsense and game. And they have been fighting for the last 20 years with stones and sticks, of course.
  7. Sergey Demin_2 Offline Sergey Demin_2
    Sergey Demin_2 (Sergey Dyomin) 24 July 2021 07: 21
    it is time for this grief journalist to know that the Taliban is a purely Afghan movement and it is limited to Afghanistan, they were already in power and did not advance anywhere
    now everything is just beginning with them the government in some areas is fighting back, there are igils with which they are no less fiercely at war
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 July 2021 08: 11
      Select expression. My predictions come true surprisingly often.
      You should find out that the Taliban are Pakistani proxies, if anything, because they cannot be considered a purely Afghan movement. This is the first thing.
      Secondly, a lot has changed in 20 years, there is a split within the movement, which Kabulov confirmed. The fact that they did not come anywhere 20 years ago does not mean that they will not come 20 years later. One does not directly follow from the other. The easiest direction for expansion is Turkmenistan. Will they go there or not, and when is another question.
      Thirdly, what a manner of being clever, would-be commentator?
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  9. Alexander Loginov (Alexander Loginov) 24 July 2021 12: 20
    If the Taliban go to Turkmenistan, then there is not a zero probability that they will arrive from all of China, since all the gas of Turkmenistan goes to China and the Chinese are completely satisfied, especially since the fields and the pipeline were built with Chinese money and for this reason the Turkmen gas to China comes much cheaper than Russian
  10. trampoline instructor (Bazil Bazil) 24 July 2021 13: 10
    the third and fourth generations of young passionary fighters appear,

    Here it is generally difficult to understand what kind of "passionary fighters" in the fourth generation are being discussed. Although not the point.
    In my opinion, the point is that the likelihood of expansion of the Taliban into the territory of the former Soviet smaller brothers tends to zero. And even if there are some scanty movements, then let the smaller brothers take care of their asses on their own.