Gas bypass of Ukraine: Kiev thought it beat Gazprom, but it turned out the other way around

While https://www.izakayasushilounge.com Ukrtransgaz continues to mark with red flags how many days they have already managed without aggressor gas (in fact, not days, but years - since 2016, but they celebrate every day as a holiday!), There was one significant event that for some reason remained unnoticed in the land of evergreen tomatoes. Hungary through the system of European interconnectors connected to the Turkish and Balkan streams (the latter is a continuation of the Turkish one), and thus untied from the Ukrainian pipe.

At a time when Zelensky continues to curse and fight against Nord Stream 2, Gazprom is facilitating the Ukrainian pipeline from the south. Does Zelensky have no complaints about the Turkish pipe? Or is it more expensive to cling to Erdogan? Now, to Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, which previously received Russian gas through the Turkish Stream, Hungary has been added, which has linked itself with Serbia by an interconnector (the pipe will start working on October 1). Next in line is Austria and Slovakia, after which the European Gazprom ring connecting the Nordic and Turkish streams will be closed. And then problems will begin not only for Ukraine, but also for Poland. Although they have already begun with her - the scoundrel-Gazprom abruptly, more than 8 times to a billion cubic meters, reduced the capacity reserve of its wonderful Yamal-EU GTS for the 4th quarter of this year (counting on the launch of SP-2) and generally refused to book capacity for the next year (from October 2021 to October 2022). And what will you do to him? Has the right to! The third energy package, for which, in fact, the proud gentry fought.



Gazprom is deliberately playing on raising prices for blue fuel. A month ago, we were surprised at $ 350 per thousand cubic meters registered at the Dutch gas distribution hub TTF, and now this figure has already exceeded $ 450 and continues to grow. Free market, an icon of modern liberalism. There is no gas physically. Dastardly Qataris and Americans continue to drive their LNG to the premium markets of Southeast Asia, where the price of gas is twice as high, and Gazprom in the most insolent way does not increase gas pumping rates beyond the contracted ones. And you won't find fault - I have to supply the N-th amount of gas under the contract, here you will get it. And for more, sorry, there is no money! After all, your wonderful "Operator of the Ukrainian GTS" for every thousand cubic meters of gas pumped in excess of the agreed 109 million cubic meters / day (this is 40 billion cubic meters / year divided by 365 days), fights in three skins - with an increasing coefficient of 1,2. Sorry, Gazprom is not rubber! The Ukrainian tariff is so insane that even Hungary to receive Russian gas through the bypassing southern route, which is twice as long, turned out to be cheaper than directly through Ukraine, especially since there Gazprom partially pays for itself, because the Turkish pipe is half in its ownership, and the Ukrainian gas transportation system 100% belongs to Naftogaz (let's make an amendment - it still belongs to).

Helpful idiots of Gazprom

And now Europe is faced with a previously unknown phenomenon - the price of gas in the summer, when it is necessary to pump it into underground gas storage facilities, preparing for winter, turned out to be higher than in winter. And the reasons are objective - the production of its own gas in Europe is falling, first the Turkish Stream, then the Yamal-EU gas pipeline, and then the SP-1 are undergoing scheduled repairs (albeit just for a week, but there is no more gas in Europe due to this becomes). Gazprom is deliberately playing this game, making money not on the amount of gas supplied, but on its price. Miller no longer knows where to store the suddenly dumped profits, because for this year in the budget of his department the gas price was planned in the amount of 171 dollars per thousand cubic meters. And she has already passed over 450! Miller may have problems only with holes for medals - there is no room for new medals on his jacket. All the useful idiots fighting Nord Stream 2, starting with the European defenders of fauna and other green lunatics, and ending with proud Britons, Poles and our Ukrainian non-brothers who have completely lost their shores, play only into the hands of Miller and Putin.

Gas prices continue to rise. An abnormally cold and long winter, which ended in Europe only by mid-April, was followed by an abnormally hot summer. Asphalt and people are melting from the heat, air conditioners are working at full load, where can I get electricity for them? That's right, only by burning gas (after all, the atom and coal in Europe, thanks to our useful idiots, are banned). But there is no gas! It is not in the PGH either. Almost all of them were eaten during the last cold winter. European underground gas storage facilities are slightly more than a third full, while Ukrainian ones, where they also store their gas, are half full. It's time to replenish them. But expensive! How will they go through the winter, I don't know? All hope is for SP-2!

Miller's cunning plan

This is Miller's cunning plan. Having discovered half-empty underground gas storage facilities and, God forbid, faced with another cold winter, the Europeans will crawl on their knees to Gazprom with a request to turn off the SP-2 valve to the full. Miller so naively asks: "But what about the Third Energy Package, according to which Gazprom cannot count on more than 50% of the capacity of its own pipe?" And the Europeans will say: "Yes, to hell with him, with this energy package, rather turn on the gas!" And Gazprom will cut it in that it will bring down the gas price somewhat, but firstly, Gazprom will beat off the difference in quantity, and secondly, it will not knock it down too much, given that in the first year through the section of the joint venture-2, the 55 billion cubes cannot pass purely physically (the capacity will increase gradually over the next three years).

And the first to crawl to Miller on his knees with requests to open SP-2 will be Zelensky. Because Zelensky will not be able to buy free European gas (you understand, with molecules of freedom) on the free European gas market at the current price. They scolded the gas princess Tymoshenko, who almost entered into an onerous gas contract with Russia in 2009 for the supply of gas at a price of $ 450 / thousand cubic meters (later the price was brought down to $ 232), and now the price is the same. And what to do? Fall at Gazprom's feet so that it launches SP-2 as soon as possible, at least the B line. After all, Ukraine's underground storage facilities currently contain only 16 billion cubic meters of gas. While at the beginning of the heating season there were 28! During the cold winter, they raised 13 billion cubic meters, and at new prices they pumped in only 1 billion. The price bites!

But the trouble is not even that. The fact is that out of the 16 billion cubic meters available in the UGS, 4 billion belong to foreign residents (they simply store them there), another 5 billion is an unrecoverable balance (it is needed to maintain pressure during lifting). How much is left? 7 billion? Trouble! With so much gas, the winter will not survive. I am already silent about its price, it will fall on the poor Ukrainian consumer. Did you want to go to Europe? Please welcome! Start with prices for now, we will raise salaries later (for those who survive, and there will be few of them!). Whoever doesn't like it - go, jump some more.

And after all, the dastardly Miller will not stop there. An onerous agreement with Ukraine, which was signed for five years, up to and including 2024, was concluded on a “download or pay” basis. Russia, according to him, is obliged to pump 2024 billion cubic meters annually through the Ukrainian GTS in this and subsequent years until 40. And even if it doesn't pump it, it will still pay. Moreover, the agreement was drawn up in such a way that the Russian Federation pays for the daily pumping of 109 million cubic meters (this is 40 billion divided by the number of days a year), for every thousand cubic meters over 109 million cubic meters / day, Gazprom pays with a multiplier of 1,2. This is the contract. The Ukrainians thought they had outwitted everyone. But the whole point is that in the winter months gas consumption is higher than in the summer (for 4 months of a conditional winter, as much gas is consumed as in the previous 8 months). And Ukraine thought that Gazprom would only overpay by increasing winter supplies. But Gazprom can make a trick with its ears - 109 million cubic meters / day is supposed to, if you please, get it. And for more, excuse me, there is no money or gas. All claims to Stockholm Arbitration. Or maybe even 109 million not to pump, but to pay as for the pumped one (after all, the principle of “download or pay” has not been canceled, damn it!). Where, then, will the Europeans get the missing gas? That's right, from the PGC. But he is not there, thanks to Gazprom. What to do then? I already said about this above - to fall at the feet of Gazprom and beg for mercy, turn on, good Uncle Miller, SP-2 to the fullest. Good Uncle Miller will think about it.

But what should Ukraine do in this situation? After all, she does not buy aggressive gas. Only free and only on the free European market (even gas of its own production, these unfortunate 16 billion cubic meters of gas a year, she also allegedly buys from a European hub, putting the cost of non-existent transit on her poor citizens). And there is no gas on the free market, neither 450, nor 500, or even 550 dollars per thousand enemy cubes. And where does it come from when Gazprom, according to the contract, supplies 109 million cubic meters / day and not more (or maybe less, having paid the difference, but there will be no more gas from this anyway!). And Gazprom has no contract for the supply of gas to Ukraine, only for transit. She didn’t need aggressive gas all these six years. And then what should Ukraine do, where an energy collapse will begin, which may end with a change of power?

The only trouble, I'm afraid, is that good uncle Putin will again take pity on the sworn non-brothers and will not let them freeze.