It is urgent to bring down: Russians flee from Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has embarked on the dangerous path that Ukraine is already taking, at the end of which a civil conflict, partition of the territory and absorption by strong neighbors can await it. Since Astana gained independence, a course has been set for the outcome of the Russian and Russian-speaking population of the country (it includes ethnic Germans, Tatars, Ukrainians, Uzbeks). More recently, Kazakhstan was the second largest Russian state in the territory of the former USSR, now it is ahead of ... extremely anti-Russian Latvia! Today, its total amount is at the level of 19-20%.
Why are Russians leaving? There are several reasons. Kazakhstan has clearly taken a national-patriotic course, and many of our compatriots have ceased to see prospects for themselves in the new realities. The theme of widespread Kazakhization is annoying, including in the issue of language. A certain contribution was made by the Crimean Spring, which gave local Kazakh nationalists the opportunity to speculate on the danger of secession of Northern Kazakhstan, mainly populated by Russians and Russified Kazakhs who do not even know the Kazakh language. Residents of Russian regions bordering with Kazakhstan, for example, the Chelyabinsk region, note the increased interest of Russians in the origin of citizens of a neighboring state in the acquisition of real estate in the future. Everyone perfectly remembers how, with just one knapsack in their hands, the inhabitants of Donbass fled from Ukrainian shelling to Russia.
In 2011, representatives of the Kazakh public and artists wrote to the president of the country with a demand to recognize that the Russian language illegally performs the function of the second state language. Moreover, they were even ready to take some “extreme measures”. Kazakh nationalists reason like this:
In their opinion, the language of a national minority is not worthy of state status. Nationalists are silent about the fact that in Ukraine such reasoning, which went into the practical plane, led to war. Nevertheless, the process of squeezing out the Russian language continues. It is known that from 2025 Kazakhstan will switch from Cyrillic to foreign Latin. The process of translating office work of state structures into the Kazakh language has already begun. A group of deputies of the Parliament of Kazakhstan appealed to the Constitutional Court of the country on the possibility of depriving the Russian language of the status of the language of interethnic communication, since it prevents the mass adoption of the Kazakh language. The situation is still supported by the forces of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who insists on maintaining the language triad: a comprehensive study of Kazakh, Russian and English. The head of state is trying to go along the edge of a sharpened razor, but it is easy to understand that this balance depends on the will of a person of a very respectable age.
Experts say that everything could have turned out differently, make the Russian leadership certain efforts to protect their compatriots abroad:
In what scenarios can events develop further? In case of increasing pressure, Russians can continue to emigrate to the Russian Federation, using the program of resettlement of compatriots. However, in the case of excesses motivated by nationalism, events in the territory of Northern Kazakhstan are not excluded under certain conditions, similar to not Crimean, but rather Donbass. Thus, nationalists with their own hands can give way to that scenario, which they fear.
Experts also note that Kazakh nationalists fear, in general, not who they should be. In addition to Russia, the country borders on the immeasurably more economically powerful China. Over the past 12 years, the Chinese have invested $ 14 billion in Kazakhstan, opened 2783 enterprises at their own expense. Already today, a third of the country's entire oil market is controlled by Chinese business. At the same time, China belongs to the Kazakh ethnic group without friendly aspiration, unlike the Russians. It is known that from million to one and a half million Kazakhs live in the Celestial Empire, but they are tormented by the Chinese, they are forbidden to give Muslim names to children and practice Islam, it happens that the disobedient are retrained for fidelity to the Communist Party of China in special camps, where they are forced to prove their loyalty. The narrow-minded nationalists of Kazakhstan do not understand that they are fighting not for that and not for those.
Why are Russians leaving? There are several reasons. Kazakhstan has clearly taken a national-patriotic course, and many of our compatriots have ceased to see prospects for themselves in the new realities. The theme of widespread Kazakhization is annoying, including in the issue of language. A certain contribution was made by the Crimean Spring, which gave local Kazakh nationalists the opportunity to speculate on the danger of secession of Northern Kazakhstan, mainly populated by Russians and Russified Kazakhs who do not even know the Kazakh language. Residents of Russian regions bordering with Kazakhstan, for example, the Chelyabinsk region, note the increased interest of Russians in the origin of citizens of a neighboring state in the acquisition of real estate in the future. Everyone perfectly remembers how, with just one knapsack in their hands, the inhabitants of Donbass fled from Ukrainian shelling to Russia.
In 2011, representatives of the Kazakh public and artists wrote to the president of the country with a demand to recognize that the Russian language illegally performs the function of the second state language. Moreover, they were even ready to take some “extreme measures”. Kazakh nationalists reason like this:
The share of Russian citizens in Kazakhstan fell to 20%, and Kazakhs already make up 67% of the population. Changing the demographic balance requires changing priorities in the national and linguistic policy. How can the Russian language fulfill its “official” role if Russian people make up only 20% of the population?
In their opinion, the language of a national minority is not worthy of state status. Nationalists are silent about the fact that in Ukraine such reasoning, which went into the practical plane, led to war. Nevertheless, the process of squeezing out the Russian language continues. It is known that from 2025 Kazakhstan will switch from Cyrillic to foreign Latin. The process of translating office work of state structures into the Kazakh language has already begun. A group of deputies of the Parliament of Kazakhstan appealed to the Constitutional Court of the country on the possibility of depriving the Russian language of the status of the language of interethnic communication, since it prevents the mass adoption of the Kazakh language. The situation is still supported by the forces of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who insists on maintaining the language triad: a comprehensive study of Kazakh, Russian and English. The head of state is trying to go along the edge of a sharpened razor, but it is easy to understand that this balance depends on the will of a person of a very respectable age.
Experts say that everything could have turned out differently, make the Russian leadership certain efforts to protect their compatriots abroad:
The Russian factor of Kazakhstan could play in the early 90s if Moscow supported the local Russian-speaking population. But neither under Yeltsin, nor with subsequent presidents.
In what scenarios can events develop further? In case of increasing pressure, Russians can continue to emigrate to the Russian Federation, using the program of resettlement of compatriots. However, in the case of excesses motivated by nationalism, events in the territory of Northern Kazakhstan are not excluded under certain conditions, similar to not Crimean, but rather Donbass. Thus, nationalists with their own hands can give way to that scenario, which they fear.
Experts also note that Kazakh nationalists fear, in general, not who they should be. In addition to Russia, the country borders on the immeasurably more economically powerful China. Over the past 12 years, the Chinese have invested $ 14 billion in Kazakhstan, opened 2783 enterprises at their own expense. Already today, a third of the country's entire oil market is controlled by Chinese business. At the same time, China belongs to the Kazakh ethnic group without friendly aspiration, unlike the Russians. It is known that from million to one and a half million Kazakhs live in the Celestial Empire, but they are tormented by the Chinese, they are forbidden to give Muslim names to children and practice Islam, it happens that the disobedient are retrained for fidelity to the Communist Party of China in special camps, where they are forced to prove their loyalty. The narrow-minded nationalists of Kazakhstan do not understand that they are fighting not for that and not for those.
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