Global redistribution of zones of influence: What explains the volatility of European policy

This text is intended to open a certain veil of secrecy over some of the events over which we have been racking our brains lately, not understanding the logic of what is happening.

Ambivalent Merkel. The oddities of unpredictable German foreign policy

Merkel - she is for the "white" or for the "red". It is extremely difficult to figure it out, especially given the strange inconsistent policies Berlin recently. Remember the recent story of the poisoning of the beacon of our democracy, Leshenka Navalny. With what fright did Berlin then take such a principled position and began to "drown" for Navalny, even without having on hand real evidence of the Kremlin's guilt? (In that situation, I would have been satisfied with Novichok, for example, with Putin's fingerprints and the Made in Kremlin label). Thank God that then Berlin did not think of getting out of its sleeve as the main and indisputable trump card of our main brand - Petrov and Boshirov, whose dark shadow lies behind all the unsolved crimes of the 21st century, limiting itself to some pathetic simulacra in the form of a group of half-educated chemists from the GRU. But why did Frau Merkel shoot herself in the foot then, pedaling this scandal, risking running into a final blocking of the construction of SP-2? Warsaw and London, watching all this and adding fuel to the flaming scandal, could not believe their happiness - Merkel herself is building a fence, near which she will be shot. True, their hopes were not destined to come true and Angel's lame duck turned on the back in time, remembering that she would soon retire and her gas monopolists would not forgive her such a trick.



We will discuss the behavior of Warsaw and London, but for now I wanted to explain Frau's behavior. With Merkel, things are not easy. It would seem that a politician from the GDR should quickly find common ground with Putin, who is quite rightly considered the most German of Russian politicians of the highest echelon. Putin not only speaks German fluently (sometimes better than some members of the German Bundestag), but he also thinks like a German, very rationally and pragmatically (years of work in the GDR affect), why it was so difficult for him to find the keys to his heart Frau Angels? He even gave her flowers - it didn't help! (Because Frau is no longer a woman, but a position held). Whatever Putin did, Frau is still looking at Putin from under the gun's sight with poorly concealed suspicion.

Everything is explained quite simply. Merkel is a bright representative of the German left liberal globalists, represented in the German politician by the CDU / CSU bloc. These are the old conservative parties that have long occupied the German political Olympus, pursuing transnational left-liberal policies in spite of their conservative status. In Germany, as in all of Europe, right-wing conservatives oppose them and are now striving for power. In America, they even managed to seize power for 4 years (Trump was their brightest representative, pursuing an isolationist policy). Therefore, for Merkel, the period of the isolationist conservative Trump was a serious test. He broke the harmonious picture of the world into which she was built, and which corresponded to her inner convictions. She was mentally and spiritually on the side of the forces of world globalism, whose leader until recently was Barack Obama (although liberal globalism does not have a national identity, it is cosmopolitan by nature), and then some Trump came and tried to break the harmonious system of its values on the knee. Fortunately for Merkel, this period did not last long and the banner of globalism that fell from Obama's hands was again hoisted over the White House by the forever young and ageless old man Joe.

But in the summer of 2020, when the scandal with the "poisoning" of Navalny erupted, Biden's victory was not so obvious, so Frau Merkel, tormented by a dilemma of how to loop through Trump's Charybdis, demanding that Nord Stream 2 be closed in his narrowly selfish American interests, and Scylla of the interests of German industrialists, inscribed in the European global project, did not find anything better how to support both of them - to condemn the poisoning of the beacon of Russian democracy, for which the European globalists "drowned", and at the same time to agree that Germany as a means of influence the bloodthirsty Kremlin will even have to consider blocking the construction of SP-2, for which Trump advocated (although the last Ms. Chancellor least of all wanted, she is not Ukraine to shoot herself in the foot!).

But fortunately for Merkel, old Joe entered the Oval Office, and the fate of the innocently planted Leshenka Navalny, who is being tested and tortured in prison, for some reason immediately stopped worrying Berlin, and SP-2021, frozen until January 2, was given green shine. Now, in June 2021, no one remembers Navalny in Berlin, and the completion of the construction of SP-2 is a fait accompli. There is no contradiction here, Madame Chancellor has elections to the Bundestag on her nose, and if to win them you need to pull away votes from the “greens” who advocate the closure of SP-2 and every day lie down and get up thinking about the fate of Navalny, then , official Berlin will insist on the exact opposite. And Merkel does not care about Navalny (the thief must be in prison, for this reason he was taken to Moscow under a German escort). Such a metamorphosis of German unpredictable politics. But, if you understand the root cause, then in reality everything turns out to be quite simple.

EU - a terrarium of irreconcilable "friends"

In Europe, which includes Germany, and whose locomotive it is, everything is much more complicated. Not everyone is happy with Germany's leadership there. And even Paris, a staunch ally of Berlin until recently, is far from the fact that it will remain so. Macron is a nominee and protege of international financial capital, and the latter is concentrated exclusively in London (and he is in no hurry to move to Frankfurt), so Macron gravitates more towards Foggy Albion than Berlin, and Britain's exit from the EU did not change anything, but only exacerbated this latent conflict ... For London is the assembly point for one European elite group, and Berlin for another, competing with London for spheres of influence. In fact, there is a war for leadership on the European continent.

And if before Brexit, financial capital was concentrated in London, and industrial capital in Berlin, and they peacefully coexisted in a single European house under the roof of the EU, then after Britain left the EU (which London did not count on at all, and for what David Cameron, who initiated, paid with his position) all financial institutions previously concentrated in the capital of Britain will de facto have to move to Germany. Can you imagine the London Stock Exchange in Frankfurt am Main? And although in 2017 the antimonopoly committee of the European Commission blocked the merger of these two exchanges with the wording that this "merger can lead to the formation of a de facto monopoly in a number of markets, and one of the goals of the commission is to ensure that the merger does not harm competition", but the transformation process is already went, because London de jure and de facto no longer belongs to the euro area.

Therefore, the processes that had previously been dormant under the single roof of the EU, who would win whom over to their side, only accelerated and became aggravated. At the same time, the Berlin-Paris axis can easily turn into a Paris-London axis, into the zone of influence of which the entire continental Western Europe, which is its core - Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, will depart. At the same time, the European Union will collapse, and Germany itself risks falling apart again into East and West. As you can see, the stakes are high here, the game is going high, international players sitting not at all in the EU, but on the other side of the Atlantic, shuffle entire countries like a deck of cards, and if they are ready to sacrifice an ace like Germany, tearing it in half , then what can we say about such sixes as Poland, the Baltic countries and other states of the 2nd grade, to which they include all the countries of Eastern Europe.

Global redistribution of zones of influence

Global processes are currently taking place in the world, the globe is bursting at the seams, the platform under the hegemon is reeling (who is our hegemon, have you forgotten yet?), There, in the shining City on the Hill, in an unequal battle for the right to rule the world, three dominant ones have come together global forces - financial and speculative capital, the main centers of which are concentrated mainly in America, traditional industrial capital and the newly emerging dominant - the masters of the Internet and social networks, the so-called "big tech", which is also formally based in the United States. While the United States itself has become the arena of their struggle, having recently experienced a change of government, but as soon as everything is settled there and everything is back to normal, they will immediately take over the rest of the world, which they plan to divide into currency zones of influence, and the right to have their own separate independent the zone will be allowed only to those who can protect this right (exclusively by military means). Therefore, in the distant future, which all living people risk to find, the world will be divided into the Chinese currency zone of influence, the Russian (guess who will enter there?), The American and the European, which will remain the American satellite, but will lose a number of players from the eastern flank. Berlin and London are fighting for the right to command in Europe right now, and if London wins, then Berlin's fate is a foregone conclusion, it will be torn apart, some will go to the English zone of influence - the former FRG, and some to the Russian zone - the former GDR, (a united Germany may needed by the Germans, but not at all needed by the British). But these are all very distant plans, and it is in the power of Berlin, Moscow and Beijing to rewrite them. That is why the victory of Berlin and Moscow in their war for Nord Stream 2 is so important.

"Nord Stream 2", for which Berlin and Moscow came together for life and death on the one hand, in opposition to London, Warsaw and Kiev on the other hand, from behind which Washington was clearly peering out, but with the departure of Trump it washed away from there their hands - this was for both the Russian Federation and the Federal Republic of Germany, by no means an ordinary gas project, but a project of global significance, determining for many years to come the fate and vector of development, not even of a single individual Germany, but of all of Europe. I don’t know if Frau Merkel looked so far and understood that the fate of her country depends on this local project, which can survive only relying on Moscow, and not even on Washington, I think, unlikely. She is an adherent of Western left-liberal spiritual values ​​and her idol was Barack Obama, and not Vladimir Putin at all, it is difficult to blame her for this, this is her conscious mental choice and at the age of 56 they do not change it, it’s just that the card lay. She is still German, and the Germans are characterized by cold calculation and pragmatism. And according to it, "Nord Stream" promised only benefits for her country, she is not Bulgaria or Ukraine, to shoot herself in the legs. Therefore, the SP-2, despite the intrigues of the enemies, did take place.

But I will tell you more about Nord Stream 2 in the next text, but for now I will finish about America, where we are witnessing the resolution of the global conflict between big tech and financial and industrial capital. And if in 2016 social networks helped Trump to occupy the White House, then 4 years later the Democrats learned the right lessons from this, without repeating old mistakes, converting and dragging the owners of Silicon Valley to their side, most of whom are not even strong. they resisted this (being apolitical by nature, they easily changed their libertarian views to left-liberal ones). As a result, Silicon Valley turned out to be more powerful than the current President of the United States, blocking his accounts and not allowing him to repeat the success of 4 years ago. In fact, big tech has become a new kind of power over people, which challenged the traditional hierarchical system of state power. Big tech refers to online platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Google and Apple, which have established a dominance over the public sphere in a way that we have not seen since the Crusades of the heyday of the Catholic Church. All of them had a deceptively modest start in the form of garages and rooms on student campuses (back in 2008, none of these companies could be found in the list of the world's leading companies), and today they are ranked 1st, 3rd in terms of market capitalization. 4th, 5th and XNUMXth place in the major league of world business. Only their Chinese competitors, Tencent and Alibaba, are stepping on their heels.

As a result, online platforms have transformed the once decentralized world wide web into an oligarchically organized, hierarchical public environment. They made money from this environment, controlling access to it. It was clear to anyone who could look beyond their nose that the initially libertarian leanings of the founders of all these Internet giants would quickly succumb to the onslaught of left-wing liberal politics. Which is exactly what happened. This was a revelation only for our favorite Trump.

Trump's defeat in November 2020 was the defeat of industrial capital, of which he was a protégé, to the combined forces of big tech and speculative finance capital, whose protégé was and is old Joe. But having ensured the victory for Biden, the conditional Zuckerberg suddenly faced the fact that his interests in this victory were not taken into account (as, in fact, the interests of the left, whose votes went to Sleeping Joe along with the defeated Vermont Senator from the state of Vermont, Democrat-socialist Bernie Sanders) ... What Zuckerberg would like to be summoned to the carpet in Congress and forced to report to him as some naughty boy? Therefore, now we are witnessing the opposite process - the disenchanted, feeling its strength, big tech unites with the lost industrial capital, whose interests are represented by the Republicans, and begins to slowly crush the financiers who have lost their shores, who have long and firm ties with the Democrats.

Therefore, Biden, feeling that the deck of the American ship was beginning to sway under him, and rushed to Europe, trying to legitimize his fictitious election victory through communication with as many world political actors as possible. During his 8-day European tour, he consistently met first in London with Boris Johnson and his grandmother-queen, then there with the leaders of the G7, then, having moved to Brussels, with the heads of government and leaders of all 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance during the 31st summit of this organization held at the NATO headquarters, then with them and the leaders of the European Union during the US-EU summit, which was also held in Brussels (and for some reason such frequent communication did not bother any of them!), and in the end The European voyage to Geneva was awaited by Putin, to whom he proposed his plan to divide the spheres of influence. But the latter is still just an assumption (we are not given to know about this).

In general, Biden's tour was seen as a revival of US leadership on the world stage, which was greatly shaken during Trump's cadence, although Biden himself camouflaged it all under the guise of rallying world democracies against authoritarian regimes. But despite all Biden's demonstrative friendliness towards London and Brussels, official Washington regards Europe only as a junior partner in the growing competition with China. At the same time, he does not consider Russia as a competitor (for us, this may be for the best).

I have to put an end to this. What contradictions are tearing old Europe apart and who is friends against whom, we will consider in the next text.

To be continued.