Russia closes the European gas ring

With Nord Stream 2, we figured out previous text (come in, who have not read it, I guarantee you a balm for your soul!). Today we will discuss the global gas problems of Europe. Do not forget that no one is limited to Nord Streams, Europe's gas needs are much higher.

End of a Dutch fairy tale

The EU consumes only 600 billion cubic meters of imported gas a year, while Gazprom claims so far only one third of this figure - 200 billion cubic meters of gas a year. The rest of the needs of Europe and Turkey, which joined it, are compensated by the Norwegians (100-110 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas per year), the Algerians (10 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas plus LNG, the amount of which floats depending on the price formed at European hubs) and Azerbaijanis (so far 5 billion of pipe gas with a smooth doubling of this figure over the next few years). Everything! There are no other players in the pipeline gas market, except for Gazprom. The rest of Europe's needs are reimbursed for LNG supplies at scrap prices, Qataris, Nigerians, Americans and Algerians reign there, well, and Russia has recently become one of them (in the person of the Novatek corporation, so far at a minimum).



All these tales about Gazprom's monopoly on the European gas market are nothing more than delirium of an inflamed European consciousness, you can see for yourself of this. True, in fairness, it should be said that none of these players have the opportunity to increase their supplies. Except perhaps only in Azerbaijan, but there, too, doubling the capacity of the Nabucco Southern Gas Transmission Corridor, which supplies gas from the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field to Southern Europe, from 10 to 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year is not so distant, but still the future (and Baku can double them only by connecting Turkmenistan, Iraq and Iran to the SGC corridor). But the rest of the participants in the European gas market have absolutely no problems.

Norway is barely keeping the volume of supplies in the region of 100-110 billion cubic meters of gas per year due to the connection of ever new small fields on the continental shelf of the North and Norwegian Seas (old ones are being developed and dry up), and new ones are very scarce and everything goes to the fact that by 2030 This year there will be no country like Norway on the EU gas importers market.

The Dutch fairy tale has already ended. The operator of its main asset of the Groningen gas field Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij, referring to the decision of the government of the Netherlands, has already announced that in the summer of 2022 he is curtailing gas production for reasons beyond his control. From 25 billion cubic meters of gas per year to zero. And there was a time when they produced 80 billion cubic meters of gas a year (the record was set in 1976 - 88 billion cubic meters), but sooner or later everything ends, this Christmas story is over. The reason is as trivial as life. The exploitation of the field since the end of the 60s of the last century has led to an increase in the seismic activity of the region due to the subsidence of mined formations, which has led, since 1994, to 900 earthquakes (the most powerful with a magnitude of 3,6 on the Richter scale). As a result, the government of the country made a responsible decision to stop the development of the field already in 2022, without waiting for the previously adopted date of the compulsory end of operation, determined for 2030, for the simple reason that the Netherlands is 85% below sea level and does not smile at anyone there. one fine day go to the bottom of the sea, i.e. it is banal to disappear from the face of the Earth.

Except for Gazprom, there is simply no one on the European gas market to replenish 2022 billion cubic meters of gas leaving the market in 25. Pipeline gas suppliers (and there are only three of them, not counting Miller's department) cannot increase their production, and not only is LNG expensive, it will also go wherever they pay more for it (and these are recently premium markets of Southeast Asia, and not even the Dutch TTF gas hub at all). As a result, the latter will most likely cease to exist, giving up this place under the sun to the German newly created THE (Trading Hub Europe) and the Austrian CEGH (Central European Gas Hub in Baumgarten), powered by Nord Streams, the Ukrainian GTS and the gas pipeline "Yamal-EU", which both the Germans and the Austrians are only happy about. Gazprom is calmly watching the development of the situation, and is not going to cut off supplies along the central corridor, which includes both Yamal-EU and the Ukrainian route, as the Poles and Ukrainians are not provoking.

Dastardly Poles

And the Poles have recently become completely furious, pulling their Baltic Stream from Norway along the bottom of the Baltic and North Seas through Denmark and threaten to abandon Russian gas altogether in 2022. At the same time, Poland's own gas needs by the beginning of 2023, according to the calculations of its national gas transmission operator Gaz-System, should increase to 22 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The growth is due to the increasing demand for gas from TPPs of gas generation in connection with the withdrawal, according to the EU requirements, of TPPs operating on coal. I have one simple question for the proud Poles - where are you going to get gas for this?

I am already tired of explaining to all the unreasonable Khazars that there is no excess gas in Europe (stupidly not in nature!), If you refuse direct supplies of the Russian gas you hate, then you will buy the same Russian gas from the Germans, only more expensive. The Germans have nothing against it. If you don't want it from the Germans, buy it from the Austrians, they have the same Russian gas only in profile. Your beloved Norwegians, Algerians, Dutch have no extra gas for you. By the way, you can cross out the Dutch from this list, they will have no gas even for themselves in 2023, they will buy gas from the Germans that came through the Russian pipe, or dream of LNG of American origin.

I’m already silent about the fact that American LNG does not exist in nature, it is simply produced in the United States, but in fact it belongs to the companies that bought it, not of American origin, and they will take it to where they pay more, and this is not Europe at all, but premium markets in Southeast Asia (at least it has been so far). But even if you close your eyes and imagine that something like this has happened (well, what does not happen in life ?!), and LNG carriers of American origin will go to Polish terminals, then it is worth remembering that the capacity of the only LNG they currently have is terminal in Swinoujscie 5 billion cubic meters of gas / year with the possibility of expanding to 7,5 billion. And even if our proud companies manage to increase its capacity by 1,5 times, plus launch a new floating LNG terminal in Gdansk with a capacity of 4,5 billion cubic meters gas per year, then even after that the total capacity of their regasification terminals will reach only 12 billion cubic meters of gas, which, given their own need for natural gas at 22 billion cubic meters of gas / year, clearly will not help their national oil and gas operator PGNiG to fill their own pipe, which is a logical continuation gas pipeline "Yamal-EU", and enter the EU gas market with its proposal.

PGNiG can even satisfy its own needs only with the help of the very same Baltic Stream with a design capacity of 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which still needs to be reached to the point of input on the Polish coast (and I heard there were problems with Danish field mice, not to mention about Gazprom, whose two main high-pressure gas pipelines SP-1 and SP-2 your unfortunate Baltic Pipe must cross). With what is PGNiG going to enter the markets of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania and Ukraine (namely, such plans were announced by the head of its board, Pan Jerzy Kveczynski)?

He knows how to count ?! I count for it - my own production (5 billion cubic meters of gas / year), American LNG (another 12 billion cubic meters, I think to the maximum), Norwegian pipeline gas through the as yet non-existent Baltic Pipe gas pipeline (another 10 billion cubic meters). Total: 27 billion. With its own need of 22 billion, those same 5 billion of own production remain free. Not impressive! You have nothing to do on the European market without Russian gas. For those who are not in the know, the capacity of the Yamal-EU gas pipeline passing from Belarus through Poland to Germany is 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. If you want to refuse, you are welcome. Trade your 5 billion.

Stupid Ukrainians

Moving on to the land of evergreen tomatoes. The most important asset of Ukraine is its GTS (with a capacity of 290 billion cubic meters of gas per year at the inlet and 170 billion at the outlet, including 142,5 billion cubic meters per year towards the EU) in 2014 was estimated by independent European experts at 13-15 billion US dollars. Now we have heard from her new president Zelensky old songs about the main thing about selling her to the joint management of Americans and Europeans, which supposedly should protect her from the encroachments of the hungering hands of her northern deranged neighbor. Northern deranged neighbor only "for". Moreover, he had already offered this idea in the form of a concession to the Ukrainians during the time of the criminal Panda and even earlier under Kuchma and not by the night of the aforementioned Yushchenko. Then its cost was estimated at $ 18-20 billion. What did the proud Ukrainians say then? This is our national treasure, its market value is at least $ 61 billion, do not open your mouth and clean up your grabbing hands. Cleaned up.

Now the cost of the same wonderful Ukrainian GTS is estimated at $ 1,4 billion. This figure was named by the respected company "Ernst & Young", one of the "Big Four" of world auditors, conducting an assessment of the cost of the Ukrainian gas transportation system in 2019 on the eve of its forced unbundling (separation) into production, distribution and transport companies, in accordance with the requirements and standards of the 3rd the EU energy package. It can be said that the Ukrainian gas transportation system successfully passed the pre-sale preparation for selling it to the Americans, as a result of which it fell in price by more than 10 times. And rightly so, it is not appropriate for the new owners of Ukraine to overpay for its junk, on which they have their eyes set. They, too, were going to get their hands on the Ukrainian earth for a song (Zelensky has already completed all the procedures necessary for this), and the slaves will get them for free, they will take it by weight.

Well, who are you after that, comrade. Ukrainians? To call you idiots is to offend idiots in your face. Don't you see where your Kermans are taking you to the sound of howling about the aggressor Putin ?! How did you come to such a life ?! This is a rhetorical question, you don't have to answer, I, like no one else, understand that nothing depends on you at all.

Summary

As you can see, Gazprom is doing well. When the construction of an interconnector across Hungary is completed, which is a logical continuation of the "Balkan Stream", which in turn is a branch from the "Turkish Stream" through the territory of Bulgaria and Serbia (where interconnectors have already been laid), and then through Hungary and Slovakia to Austria to the same gas hub CEGH in Baumgarten, then it can be said that the Great Central European Gas Ring has closed. Because from the north in Baumgarten interconnectors are closed, through the territory of Germany and the Czech Republic connecting it with the "Nord Streams".

And since interconnectors, according to the requirements of the 3rd energy package, can and should pump gas in both directions, we can say that the Great Gas Ring from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea, which will soon close before our eyes, will solve all the issues of Central and Northern Europe with gas, its balancing and overcoming peak loads for the coming decades, until Joe Biden forces Europe to abandon gas and switch to green energy. And since this will never happen, and the old man-Biden is not eternal, then we can say that Gazprom, and together with it the Russian Federation, can look to the future with optimism (together with the Austrians and Germans, who will form a kind of gas triumvirate with Gazprom).