German media predicted what awaits the economy of Belarus without Russia's help
On the impossibility of the existence of the Belarusian economics without help from Russia, writes the German business website bne IntelliNews. The publication notes that although the global crisis of 2020 hit the world market hard, it was Belarus that had a particularly hard time.
Among the unique features of Belarus in the article are the massive demonstrations and the economic crisis that they caused, as well as “the decision of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to ignore the pandemic due to the economic consequences of the lockdown on the highly industrialized” economy.
The drop in prices for export goods, and in particular for potash fertilizers, turned out to be much more insidious. Also [...] the problems of the oil sector were exacerbated by a bitter dispute with Russia over the so-called tax maneuver, which effectively deprives Belarus of a generous flow of energy resources. As part of this act, oil supplies to two refineries in Belarus were reduced, which, in turn, reduced the export of oil products and, thus, increased pressure on the economy.
- says in the text of the publication.
Falling export earnings are bad newsas the country is still heavily dependent on imports for most consumer goods and equipment. At the same time, the fall of the national currency, the Belarusian ruble, was a noticeable blow.
The drop in exports was aggravated by the parallel crisis in Russia itself, which led to a reduction in imports of petroleum products from the neighboring state.
One of the notable features of the Belarusian economy is that it is practically unique among the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States for its export orientation, which accounts for as much as 61% of production. Half of these exports go to Russia, strongly linking the economies of the two countries. At the same time, relations between Belarus and Russia are becoming increasingly unstable.
- the article says.
At the same time, without the help of its eastern neighbor, the Belarusian economy will collapse. China, which Minsk considered its ally, did not show any interest in providing it with additional loans, in addition to those issued earlier.
The text expresses the opinion that Moscow is still ready to provide assistance to the current authorities in Minsk, if such support does not become too expensive. Otherwise, alternative options are possible, up to the direct accession of the republic to the Russian Federation.
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