Loss of Transcarpathia: the Armed Forces of Ukraine have nothing to oppose to the "weak" Hungarian army


Extremely stupid and short-sighted policy Kiev may also cost him the loss of Transcarpathia. Budapest has warned the Ukrainian authorities that it will not tolerate the oppression of ethnic minorities from among ethnic Hungarians. It is noteworthy that the statement on this matter was made not by some private individuals shouting and waving their hands on talk shows on Russian federal channels, but by the Chief of the General Staff and the Armed Forces of Hungary, Ferenc Korom. What are the chances that the Ukrainian and Hungarian armies will actually come together in battle, and who has more chances to emerge victorious from such a clash?


Note that both sides of the potential conflict are very cocky. The Hungarians believe that they will be able to “reach Lviv,” the Ukrainians - that in a couple of days they will sweep away the enemy's army and calmly march under the yellow-blue banners to Budapest. The question is extremely controversial, because both are right and wrong at the same time.

Comparison of military power


If you look strictly at the numbers, the Armed Forces of Ukraine look much stronger than the Armed Forces of Hungary. After the collapse of the USSR and joining the European Union and NATO, Budapest relied on the North Atlantic Alliance and drastically reduced its army. This was motivated by the fact that there was no longer a need to defend their borders. Ukraine, on the other hand, after the outbreak of the civil war in Donbass, radically increased the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and also acquired assorted “dobrobats”. In 2018, after the adoption of the scandalous law "On Education" by Kiev, which infringed upon the rights of not only Russians, but also other ethnic minorities from among the Hungarians, Poles and Romanians, the relations of Budapest with Nezalezhnaya sharply deteriorated. Even then, there were transparent hints that Hungary could protect its compatriots living in Transcarpathia, not only in word, but also in deed. In response, a propaganda video was concocted in Ukraine comparing the combat potential of the two armies. Naturally, everything was shown exclusively in favor of the APU.

So, here are a few key indicators. At that time, the number of the Ukrainian army was 182 thousand people, and the Hungarian - 23 thousand 250 people. Kiev had 2214 tanks, Budapest - 32. For armored vehicles, the ratio was also not in favor of the Hungarians - 11868 versus 1123, for MLRS - 625 versus 65. The Armed Forces of Ukraine had 1302 self-propelled artillery mounts in their complete absence from a potential enemy. Also, the Ukrainians dominated the military artillery: 1669 against 300 among the Hungarians. The midwife forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had 64 attack aircraft against 12, as well as 121 VTA aircraft against 19, 34 combat helicopters against 0. In general, put out the lights. There is complete military superiority. Where is Hungary to "rock the boat" against Independent: after all, it is the "knights" who will calmly reach Budapest, and not the Hungarians to Lviv ... Or not?

What is the power?


These "paper" calculations completely ignore very important factors that can completely change such a depressing balance of power.

At first, as we know from one good old film, who is right is stronger, and in this case the Hungarians are right. Kiev, in its Russophobic policy, at the same time hooked on other national minorities by adopting the scandalous law "On Education", which prohibits them from studying in their native language, and then - the Law "On Language". It is worth recalling that Nezalezhnaya, by signing the Agreement on the European Association, assumed certain obligations that it does not comply with. Hungary speaks loudest about the need to protect the rights of its compatriots, compactly living in Transcarpathia, but it is not the only one concerned about the current situation. In particular, in 2020, the European Union Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Oliver Varhei stated about the need to respect national minorities and dialogue with them, as well as the adoption of the law "On National Minorities". Thus, Ukraine is objectively the oppressor of rights and freedoms, with which, in fact, the European Union agrees. Let's remember this.

SecondlyTo protect its compatriots, many of whom also have both Ukrainian and Hungarian citizenship, Budapest does not need to go to Lvov or Kiev and arrange field battles with the Ukrainian army. Yes, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are stronger in all positions, but it will be enough for the Hungarian army to enter Transcarpathia, where the features of the relief and the factor of support for the local population will play in its favor, and the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be sharply limited.

Thirdly, Kiev will not be able to use its entire army against the Hungarians, since most of it is forcedly concentrated in the Donbass, as well as along the Russian border. In other words, it is constrained for an indefinitely long period in the eastern direction, therefore all these calculations and comparisons in terms of military power with Hungary can be discarded as irrelevant. With all the will, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to bring down all their ground forces, aviation and armored vehicles on the "interventionists" in Transcarpathia.

Fourthly, a lot will depend on the position of the North Atlantic Alliance, of which Hungary is a member, not Ukraine. In Nezalezhnaya, numerous "military experts" reassure themselves that NATO will not fight for Budapest. Yes, this western military bloc will definitely not participate in the military operation against Ukraine in Transcarpathia. However, this can be done separately by Hungary itself under the quite plausible pretext of protecting its compatriots from oppression. Recall that the head of the "Right Sector", a radical organization banned in the Russian Federation, threatened to send his battalions to pacify the Hungarians. In response, Budapest may carry out humanitarian intervention there.

Humanitarian intervention - in modern international law and practice: the use of force or the threat of force carried out by a state or group of states outside its borders without the consent of the country in whose territory the force is used and aimed at preventing or suppressing large-scale and gross violations of fundamental human rights, is not being nationals of a humanitarian intervention.

It is quite suitable for such a case. The NATO bloc will most likely take a neutral position in the armed conflict, but act as a “roof” for Hungary if it still loses in Transcarpathia, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine try to enter the territory of this European country.

Fifthly, this geopolitical alignment will sparkle with completely different colors if Bucharest, which has a 100-strong army and a significant number of modernized Soviet armored vehicles, takes care of protecting the rights of ethnic Romanians in Bukovina.

Thus, the total superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the Hungarian army turns out to be "paper", not corresponding to the real state of affairs. Therefore, Kiev should heed the warning of the head of the General Staff of Hungary in order to avoid the appearance of his second "Donbass" already on the western border.
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  1. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 29 2021 13: 04
    +3
    However, this can be done separately by Hungary itself. under a plausible pretext protecting their compatriots from oppression.

    Hungary can do, but Russia cannot.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 30 2021 07: 30
      0
      in order for a "khokhol" to become a Hungarian, he must provide documents of Hungarian origin. so that Hungary will protect the Hungarians. similarly for the Poles. For them Little Russians are not a brotherly people. Not only Ivanovs, Petrovs, Sidorovs are registered as Russians, but also parasyuks from the leguzaderischenko. So Russia is much more difficult than Hungary. Recently, the FSB caught the natives of Ukraine preparing a terrorist attack. Probably everyone was told that they love Russia and they managed to get passports ... the Russian-speaking, fraternal people ... It is their Russia that needs to be protected ???
  2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 29 2021 13: 12
    +1
    Quote: Bakht
    However, this can be done separately by Hungary itself. under a plausible pretext protecting their compatriots from oppression.

    Hungary can do, but Russia cannot.

    Maybe, but her leadership is unwilling.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 29 2021 13: 28
    +4
    Hungary, Romania, and then Poland will pull themselves up to liquidate the consequences of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has condemned. And since she condemned, then she should return the land, in their opinion, as a good sign to the European Union ...
    1. beeper Offline beeper
      beeper April 29 2021 14: 01
      +2
      Quote: Bulanov
      Hungary, Romania, and then Poland will pull up to eliminate the consequences the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine condemned... And since she condemned, then she should return the land, in their opinion, as a good sign to the European Union ...

      hi ZRada not only "condemned", but recognized this "pact" as criminal !!!
      And she did it with the persistent filing of "disinterested-friendly" Poland! wassat

      Himself "vatazhok" UNA-UNSO (a criminal organization banned in the Russian Federation), the son of a well-known "hero", Yurko Shukhevych grabbed his head and called the Kiev duremars with the last words when he found out about this next "trick", in fact, quite poor mind, "patriots-maydaunov", over and over again stupidly "shooting themselves in the foot" ... fool
  4. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) April 29 2021 13: 56
    +3
    Kiev had 2214 tanks, Budapest - 32. For armored vehicles, the ratio was also not in favor of the Hungarians - 11868 versus 1123, for MLRS - 625 versus 65. The Armed Forces of Ukraine had 1302 self-propelled artillery mounts, with a potential enemy completely lacking them. Also, the Ukrainians dominated the military artillery: 1669 against 300 among the Hungarians.

    Seryozha, tanks and guns in numbers are very good, of course, but how is Kiev with ammunition and shells?
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 29 2021 14: 52
    0
    Quote: Netyn
    Seryozha, tanks and guns in numbers are very good, of course, but how is Kiev with ammunition and shells?

    For you, I'm Sergey.
  6. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) April 29 2021 20: 23
    0
    Yes, nothing will be there until the locals are banned from smuggling, all Transcarpathia lives there with this trade and cannot imagine a different life, and given that the customs pays bribes to the Kukuevs, everything and everyone suits so far
  7. tatiana korzhenko (tatiana korzhenko) April 29 2021 23: 51
    -4
    The couch warriors were so anticipating the Ukrainian-Russian war, so they hoped, but they were severely disappointed. Now they cherish the hope of a war between Ukraine and Hungary.
  8. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 30 2021 07: 03
    +2
    Quote: Tatiana Korzhenko
    The sofa warriors were so anticipating the Ukrainian-Russian war, so they hoped, but they were severely disappointed.

    Unfortunately, war is inevitable, since it is impossible to resolve the contradictions by non-military means. It has only been delayed again and therefore will be even more cruel and bloody. Still to come.
    1. tatiana korzhenko (tatiana korzhenko) April 30 2021 07: 09
      -4
      Well hope, hope ...
    2. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
      Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) April 30 2021 17: 27
      -3
      Quote: Marzhetsky
      Quote: Tatiana Korzhenko
      The sofa warriors were so anticipating the Ukrainian-Russian war, so they hoped, but they were severely disappointed.

      Unfortunately, war is inevitable, since it is impossible to resolve the contradictions by non-military means. It has only been delayed again and therefore will be even more cruel and bloody. Still to come.

      Ukraine will not start a war against the Russian Federation. For several reasons. And not only because of the difference in military and economic potential. And for the Russian Federation, today, the war with Ukraine is suicidal. The consequences will be catastrophic: from economic to geopolitical. At the same time, no one interferes with potential adversaries in the person of the Russian Federation and Ukraine from exchanging loud statements, conducting maneuvers, calling for help from possible allies, and threatening. This is all from the field of propaganda. By publication. Kiev,
      it is easier to correct a controversial law than to go to an armed conflict with Budapest. Having on hand, at the same time, an unresolved conflict in the east, a covid pandemic, a slowdown in economic growth in this regard, and the likely support of Hungary from NATO.
      And the Magyars are now clearly not in shape to start hostilities. And their partners in the bloc simply will not allow this.
      Although, in fairness, it should be admitted that, as for me, such a hypothetical development of events is objectively in the geopolitical interests of the Russian Federation. But it won't.
  9. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 30 2021 07: 12
    +2
    Quote: Tatiana Korzhenko
    Well hope, hope ...

    Hope for what? I say what I think. For me, all this has been obvious since 2014.
    1. tatiana korzhenko (tatiana korzhenko) April 30 2021 10: 09
      -7
      For a full-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine. You could see how impatiently many here were waiting for Ukraine to start active hostilities in Donbass, and Russia would intervene and carry out a lightning-fast victorious war. Well, now hope for a war between Hungary and Ukraine. With the same predictable result.
      1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
        rotkiv04 (Victor) April 30 2021 16: 19
        +2
        Do you have a spring aggravation with Farion? Tell your licars that you were released early
  10. Oder Offline Oder
    Oder (Wojciech) April 30 2021 09: 20
    -2
    If Zalensky objects to the UPA, which actually rules Ukraine, a civil war will begin, which will lead to the collapse of the country. If the Ukrainians themselves begin to fight among themselves, the state will cease to exist. But what does the Nazis have to do with it? for them they are all enemies, be it a Pole, a Russian or a Hungarian, it does not matter.
    1. Gosha Smirnov Offline Gosha Smirnov
      Gosha Smirnov (Smirnov) 1 May 2021 01: 13
      +1
      Is it such a strong infa about the UPA ruling in Ukraine? In Ukraine, Washington is indiscriminately ruled, and only he gives the go-ahead and with his submission they feed all sorts of neo-Nazi structures of Ukraine. Without amer's roof and funding their price is a penny on a market day.
  11. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 1 May 2021 00: 00
    0
    on talk show

    Who knows what this is?
  12. Gosha Smirnov Offline Gosha Smirnov
    Gosha Smirnov (Smirnov) 1 May 2021 01: 09
    0
    Funny wet dreams and fantasies. And no more. Without the permission of the United States, neither Magyars nor Ukrainians would even dare to fart, and not exactly grab something there. Ukraine will not flow for sure.
  13. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 May 2021 07: 26
    0
    Quote: Petr Vladimirovich
    on talk show

    Who knows what this is?

    This is when the so-called. "experts" for our money shout at each other live and incite hatred of other countries
  14. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 May 2021 07: 31
    +1
    Quote: Tatiana Korzhenko
    For a full-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine. You could see how impatiently many here were waiting for Ukraine to start active hostilities in Donbass, and Russia would intervene and carry out a lightning-fast victorious war. Well, now hope for a war between Hungary and Ukraine. With the same predictable result.

    In order to seriously "hope" for something, I too well imagine the psychological portrait of our decision maker.
    As for "it didn't work out": just don't attack the Donbass, and then there will be no response to you. Such a thought never crossed your mind?