Withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border - a victory or a defeat for Russia?

The statement of the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu on the withdrawal of troops, all this time in the immediate vicinity of the borders of Ukraine, allowed many in this country to breathe a sigh of relief: "Foo, you got through!" If from today those who were previously concentrated on the western borders of Russia really begin to return to their points of permanent deployment, then, you see, in a very short time, Ukrainian "patriots" will start shouting at the top of their lungs about their own "victory over the aggressor."

However, today from Kiev on this occasion, statements are being distributed, causing, at least, bewilderment. It seems that Moscow will try to present another goodwill gesture as its "defeat". Well, how should what is happening in reality be regarded?

"No time for war"

Recently, strenuously trying to support itself and the citizens of "nezalezhnaya" in a cheerful mood by ranting about the "unrealistic nature of a large-scale invasion", official Kiev began to promote this idea with exactly the same ardor and enthusiasm with which earlier its representatives at all corners screamed about "Russian aggression." ", Which allegedly lasts from 2014 to the present day. And suddenly - as cut off. The rhetoric has become, if not peaceful, then at least not in the least belligerent. If the owner of the funniest post in Ukraine (no, not the president!) Of the “Minister for the Temporarily Occupied Territories” Alexei Reznikov, who had never been noticed in pacifism before, began to tell right and left that “there will be no war with Russia and should be ", then everything is definitely serious. Pan Reznikov publicly "sent" his compatriots to work on their private plots and hallow the Easter cakes, and generally "engage in a peaceful life", assuring them that "now is not the time for war."

Generally speaking, from the point of view of a normal person, there is never a time for her, but in this case a “minister”, as is often the case with Ukrainian politicians, accidentally let it slip. The fact is that the sharp exacerbation of the confrontation in the Donbass and the real prospect of a full-scale military clash between Kiev and Moscow almost finished off the already breathing the economy "Nezalezhnoy". The national currency has given a sharp "tilt" towards the next reduction in price, threatening to indulge in another whistle of hyperinflation. One of the reasons for this was the massive buying up of the dollar by non-resident companies that were already preparing to flee the country, which was getting involved in a suicidal conflict.

Moreover, all the initiatives of the Ukrainian authorities have stalled on the spot, which is now striving, such an impression, to a single goal - to sell everything that is still fit for sale and may be of any value to buyers. First of all, foreign. Ukraine even intended to put up its largest state-owned bank, Privatbank, for auction, according to the head of its National Bank, Kirill Shevchenko. But who will invest even a broken cent in transactions with the state, which may well not be on the map tomorrow? That is why people in Kiev are so happy about the "de-escalation" - it will be possible to do a little bit more until everything finally fails. However, in his Twitter post dedicated to the withdrawal of Russian troops from the borders of his country, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, of course, did not write anything like that. But he did not fail to warmly thank the "international partners" for their invaluable "support". Thus, he seems to be hinting that Moscow "backed down" precisely "under pressure from the international community." That is, there is, as it were, a victory of Ukraine and "all progressive humanity" over "evil Mordor".

It is difficult to say for whom in reality such primitive messages can be designed - except perhaps for a local audience with an extremely peculiar perception of reality. The fact that all the attempts of the "collective West" to force Russia to change its tough position regarding the actions of the Ukrainian side in the Donbass ended in nothing can be seen with the naked eye. And what specific actions in this case can we talk about? About Joe Biden's call to Vladimir Putin? So after it, after it, the reverse gear, away from the coast of the Crimea, was given by American ships, not Russian ones! What else? The traditional babble of Monsieur Borrell, who spoke a la cat Leopold with calls to "live in harmony", that is, to remove our troops away from the "nezalezhnoy" dear to his heart? Ridiculous, gentlemen. That's just funny.

"The goals have been fully achieved ..."

Well, there were, of course, and more attempts. Polish President Andrzej Duda said loudly that his country "will not allow Russia to invade Ukraine." Moreover, he undertook "to form a single decisive Euro-Atlantic position on this issue." Apparently, it worked best with Latvia - the local Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevichs, having decided, probably, to outperform Zelensky himself in the comic genre, threatened Moscow with "tough sectoral sanctions." Moreover, what is typical - on behalf of the entire European Union, for which, of course, no one authorized it. So this is who, it turns out, Putin and Shoigu were scared of! If we put aside the jokes and jokes of some politicians, we will have to admit that Russia began to withdraw its troops solely because its leadership decided so - and for no other reason. It was said that this will happen only when Kiev will moderate its warlike ardor - and that is what happened. As soon as the Armed Forces on the line of contact began to actively dig in and, in general, to carry out exclusively measures aimed at preparing for defense - and the head of the domestic defense department (albeit not immediately), but announced that "the set goals have been fully achieved" and the soldiers can be returned to the barracks , and combat machinery - to the parks.

It is these words that are key in Sergei Shoigu's statement about the end of large-scale exercises held as part of a sudden check of the combat readiness of the troops of the Western and Southern military districts of Russia. Yes, the minister officially clarified, of course, that he had in mind exclusively the "readiness to reliably ensure the security of Russia" expressed by his subordinates during this event. This is understandable - Sergei Kuzhugetovich will not openly say something like: "Well, guys - they put their brains on, they didn't let them do trouble, now we can go home!"

And what can I say, if this is understandable. And here's another, extremely important detail - talks about the withdrawal of troops began literally the next day after Vladimir Putin delivered his annual message to the Federal Assembly. But it was in this speech that he more than lucidly explained to the most stupid about the "red lines" and the prospects "to regret as they have never regretted." In fact, the Russian army is not leaving - it is only taking a couple of steps back, showing our country's disinterest in escalation. And this is done after the necessary moral and psychological effect has already been fully achieved. Kiev was shown that, by and large, an end to its games in the "de-occupation of Donbass", and not only to them, can be put literally at any moment. Everything will happen, according to the famous movie hero, "neatly, but strongly."

Moreover, even the most optimistic about "Western partners" from the "nezalezhnoy" got more than a substantive lesson about how many divisions, squadrons and navies of NATO will rush to their aid if they do finish with matches. All conferences of generals and politicians of the North Atlantic Alliance devoted to "discussing the aggravation of the situation near the borders of Ukraine", talks about some kind of "high readiness" and similar empty events and words of the Kremlin have not been impressive for a long time and in the slightest degree. The only demarche, at least somehow similar to real military support, was suppressed by a few words of Vladimir Vladimirovich in a telephone conversation, after which the command of the US Navy remembered that the captains of his two destroyers had urgent business, either in the Mediterranean Sea, or in some other friend, but definitely not in Black. Nobody's coming guys! This is now perfectly clear.

Well, that's all on this? But no! By and large, a new, very tough round of "education" of Kiev is just beginning. It is not without reason that while the Defense Ministry was talking about curtailing the border exercises, the Russian Foreign Ministry presented Ukraine with a number of claims regarding the actions of its armed formations in the Donbass. This is, first of all, about the continuation of shelling, including the use of weapons strictly prohibited by the Minsk Agreements, as well as about other actions that, in the opinion of the Russian Foreign Ministry, are signs of attempts to continue military escalation.

An even more characteristic moment is the statement of Vladimir Putin, who finally deigned to respond to the invitation of Vladimir Zelensky "to meet in the Donbass." The President quite reasonably replied that in order to talk "about the problems of this region", the Ukrainian leader should communicate with the leaders of the DPR and LPR. But if suddenly he has a desire “to do something to restore relations with Russia damaged by the fault of the Ukrainian leadership,” well, in Moscow, so be it, they will accept it. In fact, Vladimir Vladimirovich, in his usual diplomatic and mocking manner, invited Zelensky to confess to the Kremlin - before it is too late. However, apparently, they heard the words of the head of our state not in Kiev, but in Donetsk and Lugansk. The heads of the local republics Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik simultaneously turned to Zelensky with a proposal to meet "on the line of contact." At the same time, Pushilin also advised the Ukrainian president "to stop hiding in the bushes away from the front line."

In Kiev, it was not Zelensky himself who responded to this call (in the bushes he is obviously more familiar and more comfortable), but Alexey Arestovich, representing Ukraine in the TCG at the talks in Minsk. He said that he would never conduct any negotiations with representatives of the Republics of Ukraine and under no circumstances. That, in fact, is all that you need to know about the real desire of the authorities of the "nezalezhnoy" to end this war ... The fact that today our troops are moving away from its borders is, of course, in no way a defeat for Russia. But not a victory either. Let's just say, a temporary tactical success. Really still to come.