Will Russia betray Iran again?
Washington does not abandon its cherished goal - to inflict the most serious blow on Iran’s political and economic positions. But for this, sanctions on the part of the United States and its satellites alone are not enough. Therefore, Donald Trump is now not only “beating” Tehran with his sanctions, but is also trying to get behind, setting against Iran his partners, especially Russia. Indeed, it is our country that is an important partner of the Iranians in Syria, supplies arms to Tehran and provides significant diplomatic support.
But not everything is so cloudless in Russian-Iranian relations. Back in 2010, Washington was able to “push through” Moscow, forcing it to refuse to supply S-300 to Tehran. Now the goal of the United States is to persuade Russia to restrain the growing Iranian presence in Syria. This is not so simple, but nothing is impossible.
Iran is Syria’s closest ally and partner. Tehran has a special relationship with Bashar al-Assad, and despite the presence of a Russian base in Syria, Assad is especially close to Iran’s participation of the Air and Space Forces and Special Operations Forces in hostilities. After all, the Iranian leadership considers the Syrian Alawites as part of a single Shiite belt. Therefore, by the way, Iran sent to Syria a much larger number of troops than Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a Shiite-controlled Iranian manpower manned by Lebanese, Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis, largely ensures the success of ground operations by Syrian government forces. Assad's dependence on Iranian aid is growing, which is very worrying about Israel's neighboring Syria. The Israeli lobby, which is influential in the USA, in turn presses the American leadership to make Washington expel Iran from Syria or, at least, minimize the presence of the Iranian military in the region.
But how to make Russia accept Washington's point of view? Firstly, Russia is already not very pleased with the growing Iranian influence on Assad, that is, there is a kind of competition for Syria. Secondly, Russia is trying to maintain good relations with other countries of the Middle East - and with Saudi Arabia, and with Jordan, and with Israel, and all of them are seriously concerned about the Iranian presence in Syria. Thirdly, Russia and Iran have common tactical, but completely different strategic goals in the Middle East. Moscow is important to strengthen its political и economic influence, protect the interests of the oil and gas industry, and Iran - not only to ensure its own economic interests, but also to form a powerful Shiite belt that would resist long-standing rivals - Sunnis and the main enemy - Israel. Therefore, one should not think that attempts to influence the Russian position on Iran will be futile for the Americans. No wonder, incidentally, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on May 9 this year spent the whole day in Moscow next to Vladimir Putin, as if emphasizing the special nature of Russian-Israeli relations.
Of course, Washington is unlikely to get Moscow's full support in the issue of the withdrawal of Iranian troops from Syria, since the Russian leadership is well aware that Bashar al-Assad remains president largely due to the bayonets of Iranian fighters. But to persuade Moscow to put pressure on Iran in the matter of reducing its presence in the Middle East, Donald Trump is quite capable. No less interesting is how Moscow’s actions, if it follows Washington’s lead, will affect Iran-Russia relations and the two countries ’interaction both in the Syrian issue and in the economy.
But not everything is so cloudless in Russian-Iranian relations. Back in 2010, Washington was able to “push through” Moscow, forcing it to refuse to supply S-300 to Tehran. Now the goal of the United States is to persuade Russia to restrain the growing Iranian presence in Syria. This is not so simple, but nothing is impossible.
Iran is Syria’s closest ally and partner. Tehran has a special relationship with Bashar al-Assad, and despite the presence of a Russian base in Syria, Assad is especially close to Iran’s participation of the Air and Space Forces and Special Operations Forces in hostilities. After all, the Iranian leadership considers the Syrian Alawites as part of a single Shiite belt. Therefore, by the way, Iran sent to Syria a much larger number of troops than Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a Shiite-controlled Iranian manpower manned by Lebanese, Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis, largely ensures the success of ground operations by Syrian government forces. Assad's dependence on Iranian aid is growing, which is very worrying about Israel's neighboring Syria. The Israeli lobby, which is influential in the USA, in turn presses the American leadership to make Washington expel Iran from Syria or, at least, minimize the presence of the Iranian military in the region.
But how to make Russia accept Washington's point of view? Firstly, Russia is already not very pleased with the growing Iranian influence on Assad, that is, there is a kind of competition for Syria. Secondly, Russia is trying to maintain good relations with other countries of the Middle East - and with Saudi Arabia, and with Jordan, and with Israel, and all of them are seriously concerned about the Iranian presence in Syria. Thirdly, Russia and Iran have common tactical, but completely different strategic goals in the Middle East. Moscow is important to strengthen its political и economic influence, protect the interests of the oil and gas industry, and Iran - not only to ensure its own economic interests, but also to form a powerful Shiite belt that would resist long-standing rivals - Sunnis and the main enemy - Israel. Therefore, one should not think that attempts to influence the Russian position on Iran will be futile for the Americans. No wonder, incidentally, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on May 9 this year spent the whole day in Moscow next to Vladimir Putin, as if emphasizing the special nature of Russian-Israeli relations.
Of course, Washington is unlikely to get Moscow's full support in the issue of the withdrawal of Iranian troops from Syria, since the Russian leadership is well aware that Bashar al-Assad remains president largely due to the bayonets of Iranian fighters. But to persuade Moscow to put pressure on Iran in the matter of reducing its presence in the Middle East, Donald Trump is quite capable. No less interesting is how Moscow’s actions, if it follows Washington’s lead, will affect Iran-Russia relations and the two countries ’interaction both in the Syrian issue and in the economy.
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