Expert: China may conduct a "Crimean operation" in Taiwan this year


The growing military power of China may soon manifest itself in territorial expansion - Beijing this year or in the next two or three years may carry out a military operation to return Taiwan "to its home harbor." This opinion was expressed by the Russian expert on the PRC Nikolai Vavilov on his YouTube channel.


China will be prompted to such a development of events by both external and internal reasons, one of which is the presence of pro-American and pro-army groups in the Chinese leadership. The second, under the leadership of the current head of the PRC Xi Jinping, will go to seize the rebellious island. Serious external economic instability in the form of a fall in world quotations may push the authorities to take this step, which will negatively affect the situation in China. It was then that Xi Jinping would offer his people a "small victorious war" in the form of a "Crimean operation" in Taiwan.

Vavilov believes that talking about the war between the PRC and Taiwan has already become a kind of mainstream. In fact, this will be the return of the island to Beijing's jurisdiction, similar to the entry of Crimea into Russia, since China has always considered Taiwan its territory.

It will be a hybrid war, waged by "hybrid fishermen" - hundreds of thousands of reservists capable of carrying out the "Taiwan operation" with the support of the Armed People's Police subordinate to the Coast Guard. In turn, its units are subordinate to the supreme commander in chief and have been part of the country's armed forces since 2018.

The possible capture of Taiwan will completely change the geopolitical situation in the world, and they can be imposed against Beijing. economic sanctions. But the experience of the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation demonstrates that Russia continues to develop. This also indicates the ability of the PRC to resist external pressure - and even more so than Russia.

China has created a global economic system that focuses on China

- noted Vavilov.

Strong industrial and trade and investment ties with other countries, its analogue of exchanges and the strength of the yuan speak in favor of the stability of the Chinese economy and its ability to overcome crises that may follow the "Taiwan operation". The Western countries will not dare to fight a powerful nuclear power.

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  1. aquarius580 Offline aquarius580
    aquarius580 April 7 2021 10: 18
    +2
    If the Chinese take over Taiwan and the Biden administration does not go to war for Taiwan, it will be the immediate and final collapse of Pax Americana. The whole idea of ​​an amero-centric world is based on a simple idea: "you buy our Treasuries, and we provide you with a military, primarily a nuclear umbrella." If the umbrella disappears, then the rest of America's allies will understand that no one is going to protect them, and the whole system will collapse.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 7 2021 10: 18
    +3
    The development of one belt, led by China, where Russia will join, and the attenuation of another belt, led by the United States, may simply proceed. Such events were described by the famous Soviet science fiction writer Efremov, who foresaw many things.
  3. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) April 7 2021 10: 22
    +4
    In Taiwan, the population is ready to enter China following the results of the referendum, or did Crimea want to escape to the Ukrainians and was forcibly returned to Russia? what kind of Crimean scenario are we talking about? This Vavilov seems to be as much an expert on China as a Bebik on the architecture of ancient Egypt.
  4. Alexander Betonkin April 7 2021 12: 44
    0
    Fully agree with Just a Cat (Bayun)... Capturing territory and joining through a referendum is a big difference. Moreover, how the people of Taiwan will react to this event is a big question.
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) April 7 2021 18: 54
    +1
    Serious external economic instability in the form of a fall in world quotations can push the authorities to take this step, which will negatively affect the situation inside China.

    The crises of the world capitalist system and all the accompanying facts were more than once, but this did not in any way encourage the PRC to resolve the Taiwan issue by force.
    Only the actions of the Sshasovites and their satraps can provoke, such as the supply of weapons, the creation of military bases, diplomatic relations, the inclusion of Taiwan in QUAD, etc. In this case, the PRC will have no choice.
    The Sshasovites understand this and act cautiously because on the one hand they act as a guarantor, and on the other, the PRC is the locomotive of the world economy and the Sshasovites cannot lag behind the steam locomotive.
    Therefore, in the near future, the Sshasovites will continue to mischief, fanning separatism, discredit the Communist Party and support the Katay Yeltsin in the party ranks, signal, indicate presence, arrange provocations, and cobble together an analogue of NATO.