The Caspian problem will finally set Russia apart with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan


In the near future, Russia risks getting another point of tension on its southern borders. It can become the Caspian Sea, and our opponents - again Turkey, as well as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan that have joined it. What gives reason to believe so?


The problem of the status of the Caspian arose in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR, when instead of two countries it suddenly needed to be divided into five. It was also not entirely clear how to classify it as a lake or a sea, and what legal norms to apply in this case. The increased interest in this reservoir was due to its extremely convenient geographical position, as well as the richest natural resources (hydrocarbons and valuable fish species). In 2018, a breakthrough occurred in the long-term negotiations, and the issue was settled in the relevant Convention. But it might be better to keep it suspended indefinitely. And that's why.

At first, the determination of the legal status of the Caspian opened the way in principle for the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Europe. The reserves of Turkmen natural gas are estimated at 19,5 trillion cubic meters, but its sales are limited only to the Asian and Russian markets. At the same time, China buys "blue fuel" at discounted prices as payment for the loan, which was used to build the pipeline. The Central Asian republic is extremely interested in entering the rich European market.

The capacity of the proposed Trans-Caspian gas pipeline should be up to 30 billion cubic meters per year. It can pass along the seabed with access to the territory of Azerbaijan and Turkey, and there, through the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, join the Trans-Adriatic pipeline and enter the market of Southern Europe. The estimated cost of the project is $ 5 billion. The gas pipeline is beneficial to all its participants, except for Gazprom with its Turkish Stream, which, by the way, itself uses Central Asian gas as a resource base.

The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Kazakhstan in 2018, opened the way for the construction of an alternative gas pipeline, since, in accordance with it, Russia's consent is no longer required. Only neighboring countries need permission, not all five. If you look at the press of the rest of the Caspian republics, you can see how joyfully rubbing their hands is there, impatiently waiting for a signal to start. Why the Kremlin signed such a thing is unclear. If now Moscow declares that it did not mean this at all, but something else, then the conflict with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Turkey cannot be avoided.

SecondlyThe Caspian Sea is becoming a key point in the implementation of the large-scale infrastructure project "Middle Corridor", which should connect China, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through this water area by a single transport corridor. And now, after the defeat of Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh and the forced opening of the land corridor to Nakhichevan, directly to Turkey. Ankara intends to become "Beijing's window to Europe", turning its country into a "logistics superpower". And she has already done a lot for this. Turkey launched the underwater Eurasian tunnel, which connected the European and Asian parts of Istanbul. Travel on it is paid and is 15 liras. A new airport was opened in this city, and a third bridge was built over the Bosphorus. President Erdogan said at its grand opening:

We will build a similar bridge across the Dardanelles and accelerate the construction of the Istanbul Canal, and new projects will follow.

"Sultan" is actively promoting the idea of ​​building an alternative to the Bosphorus, the Istanbul canal, through which the passage will also be paid. Ankara intends to modernize its railways and three ports at once: Mersin and Chandarli-on-te-Agean in the Eastern Mediterranean and Filyos in the Black Sea. But all this requires huge investments from China itself, and therefore President Erdogan in Nagorno-Karabakh proved his determination in promoting Turkey's national interests in the eyes of partners. What exactly will Medium Corridor give her?

First of all, participation in the New Silk Road initiative means the arrival of Chinese investments in Turkey, which Beijing is not particularly stingy about. The transport corridor from Asia to Europe will contribute to the development of those regions of the country through which it will pass. The implementation of the "Middle Corridor" will allow Ankara to become a major regional trade hub and diversify the Turkish the economyby taking away part of transit flows from Russia with its "Northern Corridor". Why Moscow didn’t think about all this, proudly signing the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian in 2018, and looking in 2020 as Azerbaijan, with the help of Turkey, “rolls out” Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh, is completely incomprehensible. But now we have another man-made problem on the southern flank.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 5 2021 12: 57
    -3
    Why didn't they think about all this in Moscow, in 2018?

    And who will think? Putin gathered mediocrity around him and shines against their background! One "Kinder surprise" is worth something. They are all for Putin as a selection. Everything is like Chubais, only they know how to hammer nails into the coffin lid.
    1. Fourth Horseman Offline Fourth Horseman
      Fourth Horseman (Fourth Horseman) April 5 2021 14: 37
      +2
      What an obsessive little man you have.)
      Tomorrow a meteorite will arrive, with penguins, breaking a stool in your kitchen, and breaking your favorite bottle ...
      - mediocrity! Putin did not shoot down this meteorite! The penguins have sucked up all the water! Come, Platoshken, put things in order!
      Glory to the idiots!
      1. Eugene Offline Eugene
        Eugene (Eugene) April 7 2021 11: 53
        0
        What are the meteorites to do in the Caspian Sea? And the fact that our egg-heads live one day so don't go to the grandma. Glory to the penguins!
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) April 5 2021 14: 46
    +9
    What an interesting news laughing Again, the Kremlin dudes, without thinking, signed some piece of paper, practically without looking and naturally without understanding anything. Now Turkey will immediately begin to build pipelines, bridges, tunnels in the Caspian Sea. Erdagan will panic, Gazprom FSE, Putin is sobbing surrounded, as one of the commentators correctly noted, mediocrity and traditionally creates problems for himself along the entire perimeter.
    True, not very convenient questions remain ...
    1) The Convention was signed in 2018. If this is the only thing holding back construction, then where is the pipe? The third year is coming ...
    2) Since they are still not building, maybe there are some circumstances due to which construction is impossible, but the author is modestly silent about them? Or is he not aware of them himself? This is probably why the Kremlin's actions remain mysterious for him.

    Why the Kremlin signed such a thing is unclear.

    In my opinion, it is good to first understand the essence of the events, and then tell the readers about them, and not share your doubts with them.
    3) Doesn't the Turkmen gas on the European market face the same problems as the Russian one? There is also sheer horror for Gazprom. They will soon switch to wind turbines, give up gas, exhale carbon dioxide in a bag, and then dispose of it. And here is the Turkmen gas ... This somehow does not fit into the picture being created of "a new wonderful world of the future."

    In general, the European and Turkmen partners should be grateful to the Russians for their wise position on the Caspian. The Europeans are saved from the inflow of a fair amount of a potential source of carbon dioxide, and the Turkmens from the costs of building a pipe that does not fit into the new trends in decarbonization of the economy.
    And the salovars can nail a bow on their skull with a carnation, soon the first holiday winked
  3. Scharnhorst Offline Scharnhorst
    Scharnhorst (Scharnhorst) April 5 2021 14: 58
    +3
    What is this panic article? Turkmenistan's entry to the European and Turkish hydrocarbon markets will be a kind of alternative to drawing this country into a one-sided orientation towards China. It is beneficial for Russia. The length of the pipe will be more than SP-2, more transit owners, more transportation costs. Thanks to the sanctions, the Russian Federation became the monopoly owner of the SP-2, now there will be no need to share with anyone, and we will leave Ukraine with transit after 24 years. And how much money and on what conditions and when the participants will invest (whether) in the new pipe will be very interesting to watch. And since there is no need to coordinate with all the coastal countries, we are free to build an oil pipeline from Iran. Sooner or later it will fall under sanctions, and we will make money like selling Donetsk coal to Ukraine! winked
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) April 5 2021 15: 11
    +5
    Three little details are forgotten.
    1. China. Not a single cubic meter of Turkmen gas will go to Europe. China will take everything.
    2. Iran. This country has a position of solidarity with Russia on the Caspian Sea. In this situation, the opinions of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan can be disregarded.
    3. Russia. Russia will lead the currency zone, which Turkey will enter. She will not bully with Russia. Simply because it cannot. The economy will not allow (there are cases - the seams), the armed forces (Erdogan was forced to defeat the Air Force, liquidating the coup, now he took up the fleet). Erdogan's "rivalry" with Putin is, to a large extent, the struggle of the Nanai boys. Window dressing.
    The Turkmen are unable to cover their border with Afghanistan. The bandits who have come running there are ready to create Islamic chaos in Central Asia (formerly Central) (commissioned by Great Britain). Only Russia and China can help the Turkmen. So they will sit quietly, like a mouse under a broom, and do as they tell.
  5. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) April 5 2021 17: 43
    -3
    Another example of the Kremlin's inability to foresee the situation in two or two years. There are no confused analysts, gradually such places are occupied by sycophants who say things pleasing to the ear of the Supreme. True, then everything turns out wrong. There are many examples. The brightest is SV-2.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 5 2021 18: 37
      +4
      The brightest is SV-2

      What kind of attack is this ???
      sad sad sad
  6. Alsur Online Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) April 5 2021 23: 05
    +2
    Quote: Scharnhorst
    What is this panic article? Turkmenistan's entry to the European and Turkish hydrocarbon markets will be a kind of alternative to drawing this country into a one-sided orientation towards China. It is beneficial for Russia. The length of the pipe will be more than SP-2, more transit owners, more transportation costs. Thanks to the sanctions, the Russian Federation became the monopoly owner of the SP-2, now there will be no need to share with anyone, and we will leave Ukraine with transit after 24 years. And how much money and on what conditions and when the participants will invest (whether) in the new pipe will be very interesting to watch. And since there is no need to coordinate with all the coastal countries, we are free to build an oil pipeline from Iran. Sooner or later it will fall under sanctions, and we will make money like selling Donetsk coal to Ukraine! winked

    Yes it is Ukrainian bloggers spawn.
  7. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) April 6 2021 22: 32
    +2
    The problem has been sucked out of another finger of Mr. Marzhetsky.
  8. Alexey Rybalko Offline Alexey Rybalko
    Alexey Rybalko (Alexey Rybalko) April 10 2021 10: 21
    -1
    The Kremlin needs to denounce all treaties around the world! To declare the globe a primordially Russian territory so that the Sechins-Millers could rob everywhere and everything!
  9. Vitaly Ivanov_2 Offline Vitaly Ivanov_2
    Vitaly Ivanov_2 (Vitaly Ivanov) April 16 2021 12: 49
    0
    to say that I was laughing is to say nothing! Lord, and where do such "experts" come from