Three most likely scenarios in Donbass named


Events in eastern Ukraine may develop in different ways, but there are two most realistic options for what could happen on the line of contact in the Donbas. This opinion was expressed political sociologist Sergei Baranov.


The most likely scenario of what is happening may be a tough confrontation around the current boundaries of demarcation between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the militias, with the entry of Ukrainian troops into the territory of the unrecognized republics and heavy losses on both sides. The result of such hostilities may be a new settlement agreement, something like Minsk-3.

The second, less probable, but possible development of the situation consists in the wide intervention of Russian troops in the war. Moscow can come to the aid of the militia in the event of heavy losses from the defenders of the LPNR, and in the future, these regions may become part of the Russian Federation.

There is also a third way of the conflict development - the beginning of a big war between Russia and the West, in which Russian troops will enter the territory of Ukraine from different sides and cut off the eastern part of the country along the Dnieper. However, Sergei Baranov believes that such a development of events is hardly possible.
  • Used photographs: VO "Svoboda" / commons.wikimedia.org
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15 comments
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  1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
    Alexndr p (Alexander) 25 March 2021 14: 04
    +2
    what nonsense. it would be better if a political sociologist went to work at a factory
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 25 March 2021 14: 06
    +2
    There are also 4 options. Yanukovych returns to power in eastern Ukraine. Russia recognizes this very territory as Ukraine. Yanukovych with the East of Ukraine is then included in the Union State of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine. And the capital of Ukraine, if anything, they can return to Kharkov again.
    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 25 March 2021 14: 56
      -2
      According to the latest information, Yanukovych is now in Rostov and, according to Bulanov,

      Russia recognizes this particular territory (Rostov region) as Ukraine

      Well, hereinafter ...
  3. Serval Offline Serval
    Serval 25 March 2021 14: 27
    -1
    It seems that comrade "political sociologist" has eaten something wrong today.
  4. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 25 March 2021 15: 42
    0
    Meets the Gray Wolf Little Red Riding Hood and says:
    - Well, you yourself understand: you have two most realistic options.
    - What kind?
    - Well ... Either a merger ... or a takeover ... or an acquisition ...
  5. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
    Michael1950 (Michael) 25 March 2021 16: 29
    -1
    - The most wonderful option is the liberation of Novorossiya from the Bandera invaders, recalling the historical words of Anatoly Sobchak:

    Ukraine was part of Russia as part of the Zaporozhye Sich, so let it come out in the same composition!

    He was a great man ...

    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 25 March 2021 23: 12
      +1
      remembering the historical words of Anatoly Sobchak:
      He was a great man ...

      He died on a prostitute in Svetlogorsk, having fun in a sauna with our "strong business executive".
      The case was hushed up.
      The wife didn't even make a sound, swallowing the official version of "sudden cardiac arrest".
  6. Mikhail Nemirovsky (Mikhail) 25 March 2021 17: 37
    +3
    A possible scenario for the development of events: Ukraine starts a provocation, Russia gives it in the teeth, the United States introduces an economic blockade of Russia. Russia has a free hand and it finishes off the Natsiks in Ukraine and introduces into its military doctrine the possibility of a commensurate military response (damage) to the economic damage inflicted on it. (What should have been done for a long time, when the sanctions were just being introduced into "fashion" by our "partners").
    1. kapitan92 Offline kapitan92
      kapitan92 (Vyacheslav) 25 March 2021 23: 31
      0
      Quote: Mikhail Nemirovsky
      Possible scenario for the development of events: Ukraine starts a provocation,

      hi
      The Russian Federation will help the LDNR by all means, without entering its subdivisions.

      Quote: Mikhail Nemirovsky
      Russia gives her in the teeth

      Certainly!
      The RF has one brake - SP2, RF will be all dip. methods to delay the hot phase, at least until the end of the 1st thread. 2 months!!!

      Quote: Mikhail Nemirovsky
      Russia has untied hands and it finishes off the Natsiks in Ukraine

      Let's connect 1 thread, at least, and you can wet them.
  7. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
    Michael1950 (Michael) 25 March 2021 23: 31
    -1
    Quote: Ulysses
    remembering the historical words of Anatoly Sobchak:
    He was a great man ...

    He died on a prostitute in Svetlogorsk, having fun in a sauna with our "strong business executive".
    The case was hushed up.
    The wife didn't even make a sound, swallowing the official version of "sudden cardiac arrest".

    - Wonderful death! One can only envy ...
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 27 March 2021 00: 32
      +2
      He lived like a beast and died like a beast.

      It's a pity that he managed to send the seed in the form of Ksenia ..
  8. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
    Michael1950 (Michael) 26 March 2021 00: 53
    -1
    Quote: Mikhail Nemirovsky
    A possible scenario for the development of events: Ukraine starts a provocation, Russia gives it in the teeth, the United States introduces an economic blockade of Russia. Russia has a free hand and it finishes off the Natsiks in Ukraine and introduces into its military doctrine the possibility of a commensurate military response (damage) to the economic damage inflicted on it. (What should have been done for a long time, when the sanctions were just being introduced into "fashion" by our "partners").

    - Nothing will crack? "Where you can do nothing, you should not want anything.", - an ancient Greek proverb ...
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 27 March 2021 00: 40
      +1
      - Nothing will crack? “Where you can’t do anything, you don’t have to want anything,” an ancient Greek proverb ...

      What do you care?
      W / Bandera (by his admission) Kolomoisky warms up, or "accidentally wandered into the site" ?? wink
  9. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
    Michael1950 (Michael) 27 March 2021 01: 56
    -1
    Quote: Ulysses
    - Nothing will crack? “Where you can’t do anything, you don’t have to want anything,” an ancient Greek proverb ...

    What do you care?
    Zhidobanderite (by his own admission) Kolomoisky warms up, or "accidentally wandered into the site" ?? wink

    - It's just ridiculous to read nonsense ...
  10. Michael1950 Offline Michael1950
    Michael1950 (Michael) 27 March 2021 01: 58
    -1
    Quote: Ulysses
    He lived like a beast and died like a beast.

    - Well, you must! To call Anatoly Sobchak, one of the wisest politicians of the last 30 years! am fool
    By the way: Ksyusha is his adopted daughter ... lol